Alva.ai - NVDA Tracker

NVDA Tracker

Daily 21:00 ET digest on NVDA policy, product cadence, supply chain, sentiment, catalysts/partners, and competitor momentum.

12/02/2025 02:00

Export controls: H20 China shipments allowed again but taxed (~15% revenue share to U.S.); Blackwell still unlicensed, so China upside is capped and unstable.
Blackwell cadence: 2025 is still Hopper-heavy; Blackwell ramping but with NVL72 delays and low-single-million unit expectations, shifting more upside to 2026.
Supply chain: HBM and CoWoS are sold out into 2025–26; Samsung HBM3E validation helps, but Nvidia growth remains capacity-gated.
Options sentiment: 30d IV around 40% (down from 50–55%); active but balanced positioning, no extreme skew—event risk remains.
Catalysts: Earnings, GTC, and major AI/ML conferences will drive headlines on Blackwell timing, supply, and cloud design wins.
Competition: AMD MI350 and Intel Gaudi 3 intensify 2025–26 capex competition, but Nvidia still leads in deployed share and software.

11/30/2025 02:00

Export controls: No new rule changes in the last 1–3 days; Blackwell/H200 exports to China remain undecided, with Nvidia’s China data‑center revenue near zero and excluded from guidance.
Blackwell cadence: Production shipments underway and heavily oversubscribed; Blackwell expected to exceed 80% of high‑end GPU shipments in 2025, with long lead times and U.S./ally focus.
Supply chain: Nvidia has priority on scarce CoWoS‑L and HBM, but backend packaging and HBM remain the main bottlenecks for incremental upside.
Options sentiment: 30‑day IV around mid‑range for 2025; call‑skewed flows and active vol selling imply constructive but not euphoric positioning.
Catalysts: Near term is dominated by policy decisions on China exports and hyperscaler rack ramps; major product events are largely past.
Competition: AMD is gaining from a small base; Intel targets packaging and China niches, while Nvidia still holds the clear majority of accelerator share.

11/29/2025 02:00

Export controls: No new rule changes; Nvidia remains effectively out of China AI GPU market, so China upside is minimal and regulatory risk is one‑sided.
Blackwell cadence: Blackwell remains supply‑constrained and effectively sold out for ~12 months; Q4 guidance (~$55B+) implies strong shipment ramp.
Supply chain: CoWoS, HBM, and substrates are still key bottlenecks; added capacity is fully booked, limiting NVDA output rather than demand.
Options/sentiment: 30‑day realized vol ≈40%; sizeable upside call OI in 180–220 strikes near‑term, creating gamma risk but no extreme skew.
Catalysts: No near‑term earnings; roadmap and prior GTC tie‑ups remain supportive, with few binary events imminent.
Competition: NVDA keeps >80% AI GPU share, but AMD and INTC stocks have stronger recent momentum, warranting relative‑value monitoring.

11/28/2025 02:00

Export controls: U.S. allows China AI GPU sales with a ~15% revenue surcharge; China customs crackdowns keep China shipment timing volatile.
Blackwell cadence: After delays, GB200/B200/B100 now ramping as Nvidia’s fastest platform; first servers shipping from December, broad 2025–26 availability.
Supply chain: CoWoS and HBM stay tight but tilted in Nvidia’s favor; capacity, not demand, is the main limiter.
Options sentiment: Near IV > mid IV; put IV richer than calls but PCR OI ≈0.32 shows call‑heavy, hedged bullish positioning.
Ecosystem: All major hyperscalers plus DOE “Solstice” and MSFT–Anthropic underpin a strong multi‑year pipeline.
Competition: AMD MI350/roadmaps and Intel Gaudi 3 are improving, but Nvidia likely dominates AI accelerators through at least 2026.

11/27/2025 02:00

Export controls: China-bound AI chips need BIS licenses; H20 likely approval-based—assume staggered China shipments.
Blackwell: Demand “off the charts”; plan for 2026-weighted deliveries given packaging/HBM gating.
Supply: CoWoS tight into 2026; HBM3E allocation critical; Micron shipping for H200/GB200.
Options sentiment: 30d IV ~40.5%, IV Rank ~18% (low), put-skew +0.264; OI clusters at Dec‑26 $220C/$210P.
Catalysts: MSFT–NVDA–Anthropic tie-up supports hyperscale demand; monitor next earnings/events.
Competitors: AMD MI350X/M355X 2H25 availability; Intel Gaudi 3 expanding via Dell/IBM—watch pricing/share.

11/26/2025 02:00

Export controls: H20 licensing improved mid-2025, but Blackwell to China remains uncertain; NVIDIA guidance contains no shipment disclosures.
Blackwell cadence: ODM issues resolved; NVL72 ramp in 2H25 per reports; no SKU/delivery data in guidance.
Upstream: CoWoS eased; watch ABF/BT substrates and HBM as bottlenecks; Samsung HBM3E qualified with limited near-term volume.
Options sentiment: Avg IV ~132.5%, near-term IV ~131.8%, 25Δ skew ≈ −0.46; P/C OI ≈ 0.51 (call-heavy).
Catalysts: Strong Nov quarter, ongoing CSP/LLM partnerships; monitor next CSP order waves.
Competitors: AMD MI350/355X and Intel Gaudi 3 active; track enterprise wins for share shifts.

11/25/2025 02:00

Export controls: No confirmed new rules today; compliance reiterated; indirect-access reports keep tightening risk live.
Blackwell cadence: Ramp continues; earlier rack issues reportedly resolved; lead times/pipelines unverified today.
Supply: CoWoS expanding; bottlenecks shift to substrates/HBM; Samsung 12‑Hi validation plausible but unconfirmed today.
Options: Avg IV ~1.33%, 7‑day ~1.51%; skew ~0.373 (puts > calls); largest OI: 200C 137k, 165P 117k (11/28).
Catalysts: Q3 FY26 $57.0B; Q4 guide $65B; broad hyperscaler adoption ongoing; no new event drop today.
Competition: AMD MI350/355, Intel Gaudi 3 expand alternatives; no new share wins verified today.

11/24/2025 02:00

Export controls: China shipments depend on licenses; 15% fee regime applies; no new rules in last 48h.
Blackwell cadence: Announced; initial shipments guided around FY25 Q4; no fresh delivery updates.
Supply: HBM tight (SK hynix/Micron); Samsung validated; CoWoS still bottleneck.
Options sentiment: IV30 50%, IV Rank 13%; put skew pronounced; high near-term OI at 11/28 $200C.
Catalysts: Partnerships highlighted earlier; no new confirmations in last 48h; SC25 on calendar.
Competitors: AMD MI350/400 roadmap intact; no new shifts in past 48h.

11/23/2025 02:00

Export controls: China shipments possible for licensed H20-class; Blackwell still restricted; confirm before modeling.
Blackwell: Production shipments began Q4 FY25; ramp into FY26; demand> supply; specifics today unverified.
Supply: CoWoS tight; Nvidia >60% share; HBM3E capacity sold out; HBM4 acceleration efforts noted.
Options: Put/Call OI 0.352 (bullish); near-term IV 133.9% (IVR ~29%); skew ~1.34; top OI 200C 11/28 (121k).
Catalysts: Watch earnings, SC/NeurIPS, and any China license updates.
Competitors: AMD MI350 ramping; Intel Gaudi 3 availability expanding; monitor share impacts.

11/22/2025 02:00

Export controls: License required for H20 to China/D:5; NVDA booked up to ~$5.5B Q1 FY26 charges; China removed from forecasts; shipment uncertainty persists.
Blackwell: GB300 estimated 128 units in Q4’25; GB200 unit count unverified; ODMs ramped GB200 racks from late May after resolving issues.
Supply chain: Micron primary HBM supplier; CoWoS substrate bottleneck active; SK hynix/Samsung progress on HBM3E/HBM4; capacity tight but expanding.
Options: No verified IV/skew today; positioning shows Max OI $200, Max volume $5, Put/Call OI ratio 0.00 (needs validation).
Catalysts: Q3 FY26 ~$57B revenue, strong DC; SC25 showcases GB300 NVL72 and partner platforms.
Competitors: AMD MI325X mixed vs H200; Intel Gaudi 3 broader, cost-focused; watch pricing/alt-stack pressure.