Scale economics and weak differentiation should force AI neoscaler consolidation. Five or six large hyperscalers look likely, maybe one inference aggregator, though that seems doubtful. Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft are the clear bets; only one or two of SpaceX, CoreWeave, Nebius and Oracle may join them. SpaceX likely survives, while Nebius is capable but needs capital and 2027 execution. Meta could join if it chooses. Two runaway frontier labs could instead consolidate the industry. x.com