Endless Capital
Investor in AST SpaceMobile
Proposed FCC rules to more than double SCS spectrum are wildly bullish for AST SpaceMobile and SpaceX, the only two SCS license holders. AST trades below the value of its Ligado rights; its agreed deal has almost no chance of FCC blockage despite objections. AST could return to its highs sooner rather than later if the November 9 call clarifies production and Blue Origin keeps moving New Glenn toward the pad. New Glenn is the value unlock. x.com x.com x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile is worth buying more of because its shares now trade below the value of its assets, with the setbacks priced in. Its Ligado approval has waited 11 months while the FCC approved Amazon Leo's Globalstar purchase in six; Elon is also pushing out launches. There may be antitrust issues involving regulators or Elon, but AST's own poor execution and disorganized management may instead explain its predicament. x.com
AST SpaceMobile's selloff on SpaceX news looks excessive because the satellite-connectivity market could support multiple winners; AST need not be close to SpaceX to have a place. A further fall would make the opportunity more interesting, and AST would probably be the pick over SpaceX. x.com x.com x.com
SpaceX buying Grain's spectrum is not bullish for AST SpaceMobile, with only secondary angles that read positively. SpaceX has spent roughly $26 billion on spectrum, so AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile should spend to defend their moat instead of downplaying Musk; letting Grain buy spectrum only to flip it to SpaceX likely ranks among the most self-destructive management moves ever. AST's change-of-control filing came at an unusual time, likely ahead of this news, suggesting more than housekeeping. … Show more
AST SpaceMobile's D2D prospects weaken as telcos look to Amazon and Ligado may give up spectrum. Telcos see Amazon as their most realistic potential savior, though their JV seems poised to sign MOUs with both. People consulted expect Amazon to buy Viasat mainly for international spectrum; US capacity and timing remain uncertain. AST's payments do not cover Ligado's Viasat dues, so Ligado may settle with the US for auction credits and surrender spectrum rights, leaving AST stranded. x.com
Brazil's new S-band authorization adds valuable rights to AST SpaceMobile's carrier-led broadband. Anatel assigned 15+15 MHz for investment and deployment, alongside secondary use of up to 10+10 MHz of partners' 700 MHz in licensed areas, with 200M-plus potential subscribers. SpaceX paid $22B for EchoStar's global S-band rights. In Europe, a carrier venture is expected to win 10+10 MHz using AST, but awards are pending and SpaceX is likelier to win the open block. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Anti-SpaceX demand could bring AST SpaceMobile and Amazon a lot of business. If Avery Sullivan's interpretation of AST's E-band filing as a push into consumer broadband is right, that would be huge for AST. x.com
SpaceX's move makes AST SpaceMobile's future pricing power more uncertain and leaves less room for delays. That makes AST a bearish lean here, despite the real possibility that mobile carriers back it more aggressively if Starlink goes after their customers. AST can still succeed, but execution is far from guaranteed and competition is getting stronger. x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile looks attractive in the $40s despite SpaceX paying $8B for Grain spectrum, a price AST could not match. The stock appears to be pricing in near-complete pessimism, including an anticipated delay of beta service into early 2027. SpaceX's aggressive approach to mobile carriers may favor AST, but carriers continuing to brush it off would break the thesis. SpaceX was the likelier bidder, though AST had reasons for optimism. x.com x.com
SpaceX's push to become a major mobile carrier makes a carrier-backed direct-to-cell oligopoly around AST SpaceMobile increasingly likely. Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile and dozens of foreign operators have every incentive to preserve competition rather than hand a vertically integrated rival that much influence, and AST's wholesale model lets them extend networks, keep subscribers and share the economics. Execution and launch cadence remain critical, but the reward is massive. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
AST SpaceMobile's reliance on competitor SpaceX for satellite launches weakens its moat further. SpaceX has bought its own spectrum, raising competitive risk. Piper Sandler downgraded ASTS over the pace of 2026-27 launches and SpaceX's potential to limit launch availability or undercut service pricing, though the bank remains constructive beyond 2027. x.com
SpaceX's planned 800 MHz spectrum purchase does not make it more competitive with AST SpaceMobile for mobile-operator partnerships because it will mainly serve direct-to-consumer customers, whom AST is not targeting, according to Deutsche Bank. Deutsche Bank called Friday's 10% selloff misguided and raised its AST price target to $93; the upgrade looks warranted, and AST shares should go much higher. x.com x.com x.com
