Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
CXMT's refusal to sell DDR5 to a Taiwanese server maker adds evidence that it will not flood the memory market with cheap supply and pressure prices for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Per Taiwanese media, a veteran industry analyst also said Apple found CXMT's memory as expensive as the three major suppliers' and that CXMT had no intention of lowering prices. x.com
Micron's planned Taiwan strike is likely to cost it more in lost output opportunity than it gains from any rise in memory prices, because ASPs are not particularly low now. Samsung and SK hynix should benefit. After an SK hynix fab fire in the early 2010s, low DRAM prices let the resulting ASP surge more than offset its production losses. x.com
Reuters
Global News Agency
China's CXMT said on Friday it swung to a net profit in the third quarter as surging AI-driven demand drove prices higher for its memory chips. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsHigher realized prices and a return to profit support the view that CXMT is benefiting from elevated memory pricing rather than competing through cheap supply.Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
TrendForce: ... 4Q26 PC DRAM contract price increases confirmed at +13–18% QoQ, moderating from +18–23% in 3Q26. ... Korean suppliers are set to deepen their PC DRAM supply cuts to more than 40% YoY, accelerating the shift toward server DRAM. x.com
AlvaMixedFurther PC DRAM price increases support pricing resilience, while deep Korean shipment cuts open more conventional-memory business to CXMT and increase the importance of its pricing decisions.
Intel Corporation
Software and Hardware Developer Community
We do not expect a sustained recovery until memory availability improves and pricing begins to normalize.
AlvaSupportsIntel says PC demand will not recover sustainably until memory availability improves and prices normalize, reinforcing that current pricing remains elevated and constrained.
Chamath Palihapitiya
Founder & CEO of Social Capital, Co-Founder & CEO of 8090
The makers are using their record cash to expand production capacity. New factories are scheduled to arrive from 2027 to 2029. China’s DRAM champion, CXMT, is expanding too, with its share of global DRAM revenue jumping from 4% to 10% in just a year, according to Counterpoint. x.com
AlvaMixedChamath reports that CXMT's global DRAM revenue share rose from 4% to 10% in a year while new factories are scheduled for 2027–29, materially strengthening the risk that new supply will pressure Samsung and SK hynix pricing.
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Much of the pressure on the PC segment is coming from the persistently high price of memory chips, and Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that PC sales are likely to remain weak for the next couple of years. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsDavid Zinsner says persistently high memory prices are weighing on PC demand and expects weakness for the next couple of years, supporting the view that memory pricing remains firm rather than being pressured by cheap CXMT supply.
Sravan Kundojjala
Semiconductor Industry Analyst at SemiAnalysis
DRAM ASP up around 20% q/q, bit shipments up low-to-mid single digit % q/q x.com
AlvaSupportsRising DRAM prices alongside only low-to-mid-single-digit bit shipment growth supports the thesis that supply is not flooding the market with cheap memory.Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
SAMSUNG: WE HAVE SIGNED LONG-TERM MEMORY SUPPLY AGREEMENTS (LTAS) WITH 10 MAJOR CUSTOMERS AND ARE IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH ANOTHER 10. ... SAMSUNG: GIVEN CURRENT CONTRACT NEGOTIATION TRENDS, IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT 60–70% OF OUR TOTAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY WILL BE COVERED BY LONG-TERM SUPPLY AGREEMENTS THROUGH 2030. x.com
AlvaSupportsSigned agreements with 10 major customers and potential coverage of 60–70% of capacity through 2030 strengthen Samsung's demand visibility and could limit its exposure to competition from CXMT.Reuters
Global News Agency
Apple, Dell and HP are considering using Chinese memory chips in devices sold outside the United States, according to media reports, putting CXMT head-to-head against the Big Three in export markets. ... cumulative capital expenditure projected to top $68 billion over the next three years. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesReported interest from Apple, Dell and HP and projected capacity investment strengthen the prospect of CXMT competing at scale with Samsung and SK hynix, challenging the inference that its current sales restraint will persist.Sravan Kundojjala
Semiconductor Industry Analyst at SemiAnalysis
Server DDR5 shipments up more than 40% q/q x.com
AlvaSupportsSK hynix's reported server DDR5 shipment growth supports strong incumbent demand in the product category where CXMT could compete.
The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
Long-term agreements secure over 50% of 2027–28 capacity x.com
AlvaSupportsSK hynix's reported long-term contracts covering more than half its 2027–28 capacity give concrete support to incumbent demand even if CXMT expands DDR5 sales.
Jeff Pu
Technology Equity Analyst at GF Securities
预计供需失衡将延续至2030年，DRAM和HBM的产能至2029年均已售罄；2027年DRAM achievable demand bit +mid-20% YoY，NAND +high-teen% YoY x.com
AlvaSupportsJeff Pu reports SK hynix's DRAM and HBM capacity is sold out through 2029, adding a concrete capacity commitment behind its expectation that demand will outpace supply and support incumbent pricing.
SK hynix Inc.
Memory Semiconductor Manufacturer
Both DRAM and NAND recorded high price increase rates for a second consecutive quarter driven by continued price hikes centered on HBM server DRAM and enterprise SSD.
AlvaSupportsSK hynix reports a second consecutive quarter of strong DRAM price increases, led by HBM and server DRAM, supporting the view that incumbent pricing has not been undercut by cheap new supply.Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
SK HYNIX: EXPECTS DEMAND TO OUTPACE SUPPLY THROUGH 2030 x.com
AlvaSupportsSK hynix expects memory demand to outpace supply through 2030, supporting the thesis that constrained supply will not be overwhelmed by cheap capacity and pressure Samsung and SK hynix pricing.Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
KOREAN MEDIA: MAJOR CHINESE CLOUD SERVICE PROVIDERS (CSPS), INCLUDING ALIBABA, TENCENT, AND BYTEDANCE, HAVE REQUESTED LONG-TERM SUPPLY AGREEMENTS (LTAS) FOR SERVER MEMORY FROM SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS AND SK HYNIX. ... BEYOND THE TYPICAL THREE-TO-FIVE-YEAR TERM, SOME CUSTOMERS ARE SEEKING ULTRA-LONG-TERM CONTRACTS SECURING MEMORY SUPPLIES FOR 10 YEARS THROUGH 2035. x.com
AlvaSupportsKorean media reports Alibaba, Tencent and ByteDance seeking DDR5 and LPDDR5 supply agreements from Samsung and SK hynix, supporting continued demand for the incumbents even among Chinese buyers.
Fireside Alpha
Business, Technology and Investing Interview Digest
Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon says memory is 70 to 80% of an AI rack’s silicon and asks what happens if pricing never collapses, since AI memory takes three to four times the wafers per gigabyte as standard DRAM x.com
AlvaSupportsRasgon's estimate of HBM wafer intensity adds a capacity reason for elevated memory pricing, making lost Micron output potentially costly during a Taiwan strike.Fireside Alpha
Business, Technology and Investing Interview Digest
There’s only so much memory, and I don’t think that that shortage ends in 2027." ... '26 is obviously at this point sold out. '27 is largely sold out. ... A good chunk of '28 is sold out." x.com
AlvaMixedJassy expects memory shortages beyond 2027, which could amplify the strike-driven price gain for Micron as well as the benefit to Samsung and SK hynix.Reuters
Global News Agency
Micron Memory Taiwan and a union representing workers at its Taichung operations said on Wednesday they had signed a labour-management agreement covering multiple issues, prompting both sides to withdraw from mediation scheduled for October 22. ... The agreement with the Taichung union, which represents workers at Micron's largest Taiwan operation, comes a day before a separate union representing workers in Taoyuan is due to hold a one-day warning strike over bonuses and profit-sharing. ... The Taoyuan union did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether it still planned to proceed with Thursday's strike tradingview.com
AlvaMixedThe deal at Micron's largest Taiwan operation reduces the potential scope of the output loss in the thesis, while a separate one-day strike at Taoyuan remains scheduled but unconfirmed.Ken Griffin
Citadel founder, CEO and co-chief investment officer
We do realize that we are seeing extremely high margins in DRAM and MLCCs in areas where there are real supply constraints, but people are now starting to look out two years, three years, how long is this going to last? podtrac.com
AlvaSupportsExtremely high DRAM margins amid supply constraints support the premise that current pricing leaves less room for a strike-driven ASP surge to offset Micron's lost output.
Damnang
Semiconductor Engineer in Silicon Valley, AI Chip Investment Research
Apparently, the strike at the larger fab in Taichung has been called off, while the smaller fab in Taoyuan is going ahead with its strike after failing to reach an agreement. x.com
AlvaChallengesThe reported cancellation at the larger fab reduces Micron's potential lost output, weakening the thesis that its production losses would outweigh any price gains, even as the smaller fab's strike proceeds.
zerohedge
Financial Blog and News Aggregator
Trendforce reports 4Q DRAM contract prices are expected to rise about 20% qoq. The projected increase marks a sharp slowdown from 80% in 2Q and 40% in 3Q, reflecting a higher comparison base, weakening end-market purchasing power, and price ceilings under LTAs gradually taking effect, citing Commercial Times x.com
AlvaMixedThe reported 20% fourth-quarter DRAM contract price increase suggests further price upside that could offset lost output, while its sharp deceleration points to limits on that upside.
