Pavlos D
Founder of Elliott Waves Trades, Checklist-Based Trading
Nvidia's Q1 FY27 was a blowout beat that also marks an inflection in capital returns. Revenue rose 85% to $81.6 billion versus $78.8 billion expected, with data center up 92% to $75.2 billion and networking up 199%. Q2 guidance of $91 billion topped estimates by $3.8 billion even with zero China revenue assumed. Nvidia raised its dividend 25-fold and authorized a new $80 billion buyback. x.com
Nvidia's $1 trillion in Blackwell and Vera Rubin orders through 2027 shows AI capex isn't slowing but doubling. Per a GTC summary by @kimmonismus, that is double last year's $500 billion estimate, and revenue has gone from $11 billion in 2020 toward $216 billion in 2026. Vera Rubin chips don't need chillers, making cooling makers such as Johnson Controls, Modine and Trane losers. Elliott Wave analysis suggests Nvidia's correction is nearly complete, and a wave 3 rally could be violent. x.com
Nvidia's rising revenue alongside a much lower P/E is getting hard to ignore. Its chart shows quarterly revenue above $80 billion in Q2 2026 while the P/E is around 30x, down from much higher multiples in prior years. x.com
Nvidia's earnings power supports a $300 stock price. It made $59.7B of profit in one quarter, versus $4.4B of annual profit three years ago. Revenue doubled to $96.2B with data center at $89B, next quarter is guided to $108B with nothing assumed from China, and FY28 growth should be 70% versus the Street's 45%. x.com
Nvidia's equity-investment book makes earnings vulnerable to an AI valuation downturn even if GPU sales hold up. Private and public stakes totaled about $99bn, or 31% of assets, in July; gains were $15.9bn in April and $7.8bn in July. Private holdings are marked on observable transactions or impairments, so losses could arrive in lumps. Nvidia generated about $127bn of free cash flow over four quarters, and the filing does not split private stakes by sector. x.com x.com
Nvidia's monster quarter shows the AI boom continuing, with revenue growth accelerating to over 100%. Per the reported results, Q2 revenue was $96.2B, up 106%, data center revenue $89.0B, up 117%, and Q3 guidance $108B. x.com
NVIDIA keeps growing faster even as the market expects its growth to stop soon. Revenue rose 106% and net income 126%, its fourth consecutive quarter of acceleration, unprecedented for a company of its size. It also returned $26 billion to shareholders in the quarter while making strategic investments. x.com x.com x.com
NVIDIA is a capital-cycle cyclical, so its strong near-term guidance only sets up a bigger slowdown later. Its FY28 guide for 70% growth, versus 45% consensus, means a bigger deceleration in FY29. Arguments that NVIDIA deserves a market multiple or more on $400B-plus of FY2028 net income ignore how such cyclicals behave. x.com x.com
Nvidia looks interesting again because rising earnings estimates have not been reflected in its valuation. FY28 EPS estimates rose about 25% in 60 days while shares stayed roughly flat; it trades below 14 times FY28 earnings with a mid-single-digit free-cash-flow yield. Exponential change is hard to grasp, and it is hard to see Nvidia not winning if the US does, though there is little capital to absorb market wobbles. x.com x.com
Nvidia's next move is being underestimated while attention is on Meta as the Magnificent Seven all-time-high candidate. Nvidia has increased its record buyback authorization to $235 billion into fiscal 2028, just as the stock breaks out from a year-long range. x.com
Nvidia is priced for perfection, so even strong earnings could send it lower; it fell after each of its last four beats, including one of 5.7%. Demand is real, with $1 trillion of orders for 2026–27 against about $253 billion of trailing sales, so slowing growth isn't the worry; the worry is that no result can satisfy a perfect price. At $5.2 trillion it is the S&P 500's biggest piece, and options imply a roughly 5% swing, about $260 billion, on the ~$92 billion of expected sales. x.com
NVIDIA's valuation fell because earnings grew faster than the stock, not because the business slowed. It trades below 17x forward earnings, near its cheapest in over a decade, with net income expected to grow 99% this fiscal year while the stock is up 22%. Quarterly revenue was $96.2B, up 106%, at a 75% gross margin, and next quarter is guided at $108B with no China data-center revenue. About 70% growth is expected in fiscal 2028, limited by supply, and Vera Rubin is ramping fastest ever. x.com
