Herman Jin
Formerly in Asia FICC at Goldman Sachs, Macro & Semiconductor Investing
Intel's political risk looks manageable because it is the only viable high-tech foothold for both parties. Scrutiny is set to tighten next year, but low PC guidance may keep Intel out of the spotlight and make Lip-Bu Tan safer despite the risk of a reversal of the Trump trade. Its Oregon and Arizona fabs also make Intel harder to target than outspoken fabless leaders. TSMC's supply chain moving to the US gives Intel a fab ecosystem it lacked two years ago. x.com x.com x.com
Intel's EUV foundry looks undervalued even without credit for its most profitable CPU business. Stripping out CPUs leaves the EUV fab at roughly 3x book value; Intel overall is at 2.7x. DUV-only GlobalFoundries, which has no product business, already trades at about 2x book, while Intel is one of just two EUV foundries worth counting, excluding Samsung. x.com x.com
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Nicholas Burns
Professor at Harvard, Former U.S. Ambassador to China
There's no question that Congress is going to push for a complete ban on the sale of advanced semiconductors into China. That was President Biden's decision four years ago, and it had tremendous Republican as well as Democratic support. And just looking at the comments from Capitol Hill in the last 24 to 48 hours, close the loopholes. Don't allow Nvidia, Intel, AMD to sell the advanced semiconductors into China. youtube.com
AlvaChallengesIntel’s strategic importance would offer limited protection from bipartisan restrictions on its China sales.
Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
No matter how many times MediaTek asked, nobody at Intel would get off their ass. MediaTek actually had to hire a former top Intel exec just to get them moving lmao. x.com
AlvaChallengesJukan’s unconfirmed account of slow responses to MediaTek raises execution risk for a quick EMIB-T recovery.