CK Capital
Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research
Robinhood, Nebius, Cipher Mining, Amprius, Bloom Energy, Ondas, TE and AST SpaceMobile are down hard on macro fear over the Iran war, not fundamentals, while their businesses have never been stronger. High-beta names were sold hardest, from Amprius down 20% to TE down 64% from their highs. When the war ends and fear fades, they should snap back fast rather than drift. The window between fear and recovery is where generational returns are made. x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
The AI stack's prolonged selloff may have already de-risked it ahead of Anthropic's IPO. The mid-November IPO could mark a bottom rather than trigger another sectorwide selloff like earlier mega-IPOs. Nebius, IREN and Cipher Mining do not look likely to fall much further; the same goes for Applied Optoelectronics and AXT. From June highs, Cipher is down about 73%, IREN 62%, Nebius 45% and WhiteFiber 78%. x.com x.comÂ
Higher financing and build costs squeeze short-term returns for neoclouds. Iran-linked fuel inflation raises Fed hike risk; even better projects may borrow in the low 7s, while weaker ones risk dilution or delays. CoreWeave, IREN, Nebius, New Era Energy & Digital and WhiteFiber need higher contract dollars per MW to offset costs. Funded projects with strong customers and liquidity fare better, but almost none can fund the next phase without easier markets. No need to panic. x.com x.comÂ
Deep drawdowns and extreme pessimism are making the long-term risk/reward more attractive for AI-infrastructure names such as Cipher Mining, CoreWeave, Eos Energy, Galaxy Digital, IREN Limited and T1 Energy. After 50-90% drawdowns, many trade at bear-market discounts and near major support, making downside easier to define. This depends on believing their long-term fundamentals and growth; not every name will be a winner. x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood could benefit from a crypto rebound if yields and oil/war concerns resolve and the midterms pass. It is starting to look interesting again under $100 and is the safest, more diversified way to play that move. x.comÂ
Financing strain threatens smaller AI-related plays. Elon Musk says debt markets have nearly closed to firms without substantial non-AI-data-center revenue. Neoclouds, energy, HVAC, electronics and builders will be a much smaller field in a year; its 'guppy' plays can be shorted here toward zero. CoreWeave, IREN and Vertiv look troubled, perhaps Nebius; Ouster, Applied Digital, Ultra Clean, Cipher Digital, WhiteFiber, TeraWulf and IPG Photonics too. x.com x.comÂ
Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.comÂ
An early AI buildout, healthcare data, tokenized finance and copper's clearest supply-demand imbalance favor a 15-stock growth basket now. Marvell, Applied Optoelectronics, Nebius, Eli Lilly, Tempus, Ouster, Regal Rexnord, Bloom Energy, Fluence, SpaceX, Brazil's EWZ ETF, Nu Holdings, Coinbase, Securitize and the COPX copper-miners ETF are the picks. Keep Fluence smaller; SpaceX stays bullish long term despite rejecting $500B-$1T ARR in 2027. x.comÂ
CoreWeave, IREN, Nebius and TeraWulf will sell shares as fast as they can when their stocks get pumped back up, adding issuer supply to rebounds. x.comÂ
These twelve stocks could dominate the next era by meeting infrastructure and consumer demand. TSMC makes AI chips; Palo Alto Networks secures cloud; GE Aerospace earns engine-service revenue; IREN builds AI cloud; Broadcom supplies chips and networking; Intuitive Surgical sells surgical robots. Strategy offers bitcoin exposure; e.l.f. Beauty serves Gen Z; Robinhood expands finance; The Trade Desk serves advertisers; Walmart adds ads and memberships; Vistra powers AI data centers. x.com x.com … Show more
