Art of Speculation
Chinese-Language AI Fundamentals & Macro, Concentrated Investing
CoreWeave and Nebius are both in short-term downtrends, so AI hardware is best avoided for now. Nebius formed a bear flag with resistance at 232-236 and support at 212-214 and will likely head lower, and CoreWeave is trading similarly. Data centers face pushback in several states and will be debated in the midterms, keeping uncertainty high; any rebound trade needs strict stops. x.com x.com x.comÂ
The neocloud rerating is only starting, with CoreWeave's and Nebius's results as the sector's inflection point. CoreWeave's backlog hit $104B and Nebius keeps winning $1B+ contracts at about $20M per MW. Land, power and interconnect are now the scarce resources, which is why IREN and Nebius are locking up GW-scale power. Nvidia-backed $500B AI infrastructure financing could cut capital costs and speed expansion. The rerating holds while backlog, MW, ARR and power rise and financing costs fall. x.com x.comÂ
Global resistance to data centers could constrain December cloud growth despite the longer agentic AI buildout. Some estimates say roughly 120 US projects worth over $130B face delays; opposition spans the UK, EU, Australia and Malaysia too. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon remain favored, though guidance is at risk. CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN may bounce hardest short term but look weak longer term as funding tightens; Elon Musk expects extensive neo-cloud consolidation. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
CoreWeave's financing looks more vulnerable amid a debt-market pullback for AI-data-center-dependent companies. Elon Musk says access has almost entirely shut off in recent weeks for firms without substantial revenue outside AI data centers, and expects few of the 200-plus neoclouds to survive consolidation. x.comÂ
Compute demand is too high for CoreWeave's decline to keep going. Its continued weakness alongside a rising Nebius looks overdone, making this a possible bounce point rather than a certain turnaround. x.comÂ
Hardware suppliers and VC keep financing cash-hungry labs and neoclouds, making compute rental prices at CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN look artificially supported. Lab revenue growth is finally plateauing at 800% year over year after roughly tenfold equity gains across the stack over the last decade. The buildout is also crowding out the economy's appetite for debt. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Nebius can fall with neocloud peers because the market prices sector risk rather than each company's quality. Nebius and SPCX are better companies than 99% of the others, yet Nebius would not be immune to a WOLF or CoreWeave default; some weaker names may never recover. x.comÂ
Nebius's exceptional growth makes it the best way to gain data-center exposure while the AI-sector rally still has room to run after its pullback. The risk/reward looks super attractive here, but this is extremely risky compared with usual holdings and not necessarily a ten-year hold. x.comÂ
CoreWeave and Nebius could get hit as the SpaceX IPO pushes the idea of sending Nvidia GPUs to space, the story needed to justify a $1.5 trillion valuation, with high solar efficiency and no liquid cooling. That could hit terrestrial AI data-center names the way Adobe, Monday.com and Atlassian were hit by Anthropic news. Nebius has a good chart at an all-time high but could face headwinds, and CoreWeave's $65 billion value needs about $12 billion of EBITDA given its heavy capex. x.comÂ
AI cloud infrastructure stocks risk falling together because neocloud providers depend on the same debt funding. Musk says debt markets have almost shut off financing for companies dependent on AI data-center revenue, though he is a chip buyer and balance sheets differ; Nebius remains up over the year. x.comÂ
Neoclouds can reprice higher only if financing constraints halt smaller rivals' buildouts, leaving CoreWeave and Nebius as survivors. CoreWeave CDS has seen its highs and its debt has repriced upward; a business that might fail in four years is different from one that must fail now. Ant's S-1 confirms that serving inference is extremely profitable. x.comÂ
Financing strain threatens smaller AI-related plays. Elon Musk says debt markets have nearly closed to firms without substantial non-AI-data-center revenue. Neoclouds, energy, HVAC, electronics and builders will be a much smaller field in a year; its 'guppy' plays can be shorted here toward zero. CoreWeave, IREN and Vertiv look troubled, perhaps Nebius; Ouster, Applied Digital, Ultra Clean, Cipher Digital, WhiteFiber, TeraWulf and IPG Photonics too. x.com x.comÂ
