Marvell's potential Lumentum acquisition may fail to increase per-share value because the added profits may not cover dilution and financing costs. A simplified calculation using reported market values implies roughly 38%-45% more shares, requiring about 45% more combined net profit to preserve EPS; debt would add interest and repayment pressure. If the price already reflects future growth, a control premium and possible customer concerns add risk. x.com 

Marvell's risk/reward is no longer favorable after the stock ran three to four times from the $70s in March, when it was the most obviously undervalued chip stock. Jensen Huang's call for a $1T company is partly driven by his dislike of Broadcom's Hock Tan, and the Celestial AI angle is overhyped relative to the value it adds. A bounce is likely from here, but there is no case for adding exposure at the current price. x.com  x.com  x.com 

A Lumentum deal would put Marvell in a much better competitive position, making its shares an obvious buy here, especially for existing Lumentum shareholders. If the deal breaks, Marvell shares would jump sharply; a moderate premium could mean near-term weakness or sideways trading but would be a great long-term deal. A big premium could push shares down further, though much of that risk is already priced in. x.com  x.com 

Marvell falling on a strong quarter and guidance usually means all the good news is already priced in. x.com 

Marvell's run looks like distribution, not accumulation: it doubled in four months on decelerating earnings, spiked on a CEO's compliment and printed its heaviest volume at the top. After Jensen Huang called it the next trillion-dollar company at Computex, it jumped 32% in a day, capping a 105% gain in 18 weeks on record volume of 441 million shares, while EPS growth slowed four straight quarters from 158% to 29%. A 40% collapse from the peak in five weeks followed, the mark of a climax run. … Show more

Marvell looks interesting at less than 30x calendar-2027 EPS against expected 60-70% annual EPS growth, but overpaying for Lumentum could drive its shares lower. Marvell could pay up to $110B, roughly a 30% premium; the stock-versus-debt mix is unclear, and Lumentum holders might own a third of the combined company. If the deal falls apart, Marvell could rise 10-12%. x.com 

A possible Lumentum deal could dilute Marvell's shares and add enough debt to cut forecast 2027-28 EPS by at least 20%. A 70% stock structure would require about 360M new shares and $32B in debt; a 50/50 structure, about 275M shares and $57B in debt. A higher multiple from today's 45x looks unlikely to offset the hit soon. The next year could be difficult, even if the deal proves very bullish from 2028 onward. x.com 

Marvell is expensive, growing more slowly and not founder-led, so owning it directly makes little sense. x.com 

Marvell's $70-90 billion FY31 revenue target looks credible: COO Chris Koopmans said key foundry, substrate and packaging suppliers get five-year forecasts and had already seen it before investor day. A $500 price target still looks too aggressive for now; Marvell must show it can grow its networking and photonics segment to deserve a safe price increase. x.com  x.com 

Marvell looks like the biggest bubble mankind has ever seen at about 100x trailing earnings, 170x forward earnings and 33x sales. The stock added about $110 a share, roughly $100B of market cap, after Jensen Huang said it will become a trillion-dollar company. x.com