mon
Independent Analyst, High-Risk Small-Cap & Growth Investing
CoreWeave looks like a poor long because its debt now exceeds its market capitalization. x.com
CoreWeave's debt burden made its IPO dead on arrival, and the burden is even worse now. Debt threatens the equity case. x.com
CoreWeave need not borrow at the 15.6% yield on its existing bonds or accept new contracts that lose money. Chamath's debt warning extrapolates that market yield to future financing, while CoreWeave can decline contracts whose rates do not work; its debt table shows varied effective rates, mostly below 15%. x.com
CoreWeave is a debt-ridden stock that will keep chopping investors up, as it has for a year now. x.com
CoreWeave is back to funding itself with debt: its shares sank on a $3 billion convertible note offering. x.com
CoreWeave's stock may already reflect much of its real financing risk amid extreme pessimism. Its unsecured bonds yield distressed rates and CDS spreads have surged, while Q2 net interest expense was $640M and 2026 capex guidance is $35–39B. Q2 revenue was $2.58B with about $104B of backlog, but whether that demand yields shareholder value after financing, depreciation and reinvestment remains uncertain; attractive financing is central to the case. x.com
CoreWeave's debt makes its equity hard to justify owning. Long-term debt has risen sharply and far exceeds cash in the attached chart, while enterprise value is more than twice its market capitalization. x.com
CoreWeave bonds are a no-brainer right now, more so than its equity, making the equity the less attractive instrument. x.com
CoreWeave's debt burden is overstated when a single bond's 15% yield is treated as the rate on all its debt. Its weighted-average debt yield is 8.5%, not 15%, undercutting the market's bankruptcy talk. x.com x.com
CoreWeave's heavy debt leaves it with a substantial financing burden. Annual interest expense is about $3.3 billion; a debt overview sourced to company filings and Bernstein analysis lists $40.95 billion outstanding at an 8% effective interest rate. x.com