Jeff Pu
Technology Equity Analyst at GF Securities
Dell still looks expensive at about 20x FY28 estimated EPS, since the expected AI server guidance raise to about $75bn is already priced in; the rating stays Hold. Fiscal Q2 looks soft, with revenue estimated at $42.2bn versus a $44.5bn guidance midpoint and EPS of $4.70 versus $4.84 consensus. NVL72 shipment estimates are cut, enterprise and PC demand show early cooling, and Hon Hai is winning more SpaceX Rubin orders. Tier-2 neocloud buildouts and Vera CPU racks are positives. x.com
Dell is cut from Buy to Hold because its valuation looks stretched and competitive risks are rising. Shares are up 200% since the October upgrade and trade above 20x FY28 EPS, leaving limited upside. Super Micro is expected to win more NVL72 racks for SpaceX's 2027 gigawatt buildout, while SpaceX and CoreWeave are weighing direct deals with Quanta, Hon Hai and Pegatron. PCs are moderating, with a sequential shipment decline expected in fiscal Q3. x.com
Memory costs remain an unresolved risk for Dell even after a quarter that proved the pre-earnings bearish lean wrong. Gross margin rose to 20.9% from 17.8% and the October quarter was guided to $49.0bn, but AI server revenue grew just 1.7% while backlog jumped to $95bn, so a mix shift toward traditional servers and storage flattered margin. The $74bn full-year AI target needs about 26% sequential AI growth, so memory costs hit the October quarter on a richer AI mix, still unquantified. x.com … Show more
Enterprise and neocloud demand is creating a second wave of AI infrastructure spending, with tailwinds for Nvidia and Super Micro. Dell forecasts 200 GW of AI data center growth through 2030, half driven by these customers, and estimates a $1 trillion AI infrastructure opportunity over the next four years. AI servers could enter a new growth phase in 2027, with higher shipment volumes and more revenue per deployment. x.com
Dell should easily trade above $500 after a very strong Q2 FY27 report. Revenue rose about 58% to roughly $47B, AI server backlog hit a record of about $95B, FY27 revenue guidance rose by about $25B, and management now expects AI server revenue to triple this year rather than double. That the stock sat at morning lows after such results says a lot about the current state of the AI trade. x.com x.com
Dell's re-rating from hardware vendor to AI platform has largely happened, so the stock is not worth chasing at about $440, or 24-25x forward earnings after a 150% YTD gain and a 40% gap, even though the business is near-flawless. Fiscal Q1 revenue rose 88% to $43.8B and full-year guidance rose about $27B to $165-169B, with AI servers up 757% and a record $51.3B backlog. Risks include AI-diluted gross margins, ballooning receivables and inventory, pull-forward demand and Dell-financed sales. … Show more
Dell and HPE are priced on an AI-server story rather than their businesses. Like HP Inc., which just posted weak results on rising memory costs and thinner PC margins, they are cyclical hardware companies dependent on enterprise capex, yet their shares diverged only because of the AI-server label. Data center demand is real, but the premium has run far ahead of it. Such pricing can last long in a liquid, risk-on market, as in 1999 and 2021, so a drop is not imminent. x.com
Dell can run higher as AI servers add about $54B of new revenue in twelve months. The infrastructure segment should be up roughly 75% on AI servers, and full-year revenue is guided to $165B-$169B versus $113B last year. The stock came in from its highs on tariff talk; another raise to the full-year guide is the thing to watch, because the current AI server figure implies revenue falls from here. Dell keeps flagging DRAM, NAND and CPU supply tightness as a cost risk. x.com
Dell looks overvalued, trading about seven turns above its historical multiple range and at a premium to many AI semiconductor bottleneck names despite not providing a bottleneck solution. Michael Dell spiking the ball on the latest quarter might mark the top. x.com
Hewlett Packard Enterprise is a reasonably priced execution story, less levered to memory prices and gross AI spending. Juniper is showing early revenue synergies and some hidden product wins, gross margins look healthy and expanding, and the valuation is in the dirt versus Dell. A flurry of positive Iran headlines from Trump could also lift the whole market. x.com
Dell's AI server demand looks durable enough to push the stock to new all-time highs. First-quarter revenue rose 88% to $43.8B against a $35.5B estimate, with AI server revenue of $16.1B. FY27 guidance calls for $165-169B of revenue and $60B of AI server revenue, and management said demand will last through year-end without pull-forward from the second half. Estimates should rise sharply, and 7.2% short interest adds fuel. At 27x 2027 earnings Dell is no longer cheap. x.com x.com
Hewlett Packard Enterprise deserves a higher stock price, even though its growth is not near Dell's. Per @Brian14168136, the stock is still very cheap and would be about $100 at Dell's multiple. x.com
