Space Investor's $ASTS thesis: BlackLift risks delays and dilution

Space Investor

Space-Sector Investor

13 Nov, 18:17Latest

AST SpaceMobile's BlackLift is a 2030-plus answer to today's launch bottleneck; it has no pad yet. Just 12 BlueBirds are in orbit; 28 are ready to ship by January, while 14-16 await a SpaceX date. The 100-plus BlueBirds booked for 2027-28 warrant skepticism after a year of quarterly guidance slips. Owning launch makes strategic sense, but unflown engines and a possible pad upgrade make BlackLift a thesis breaker despite the valuation reset; more capex, dilution and delays lie ahead. x.com x.com x.com x.com

ASTS

9 Nov, 21:51

AST SpaceMobile's deployment calendar slipped again despite Q3 numbers looking fine. Its roughly 45-satellite in-orbit target moved from early to mid-2027; BlueBirds 14-16 have waited at Cape Canaveral since September for a SpaceX launch date. Revenue was $42.3M, below $46M consensus, while cash reached $3.2B and the $150M-$200M FY2026 revenue guide was reaffirmed. Government contracts are encouraging, but the satellites still need to reach orbit. x.com x.com

ASTS

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Space Investor

13 Nov, 18:17

Space-Sector Investor

$ASTS: I really tried to give ASTS a chance after the valuation reset. ... But BlackLift is definitely a thesis breaker for me. Add the lack of launch pad on top of that, and the execution risks is just too high to ignore. ... I see more capex, dilution and delays ahead. x.com

AlvaSupportsIf these risks materialize, AST would have less financial flexibility to absorb further deployment delays.

Space Investor

13 Nov, 15:42

Space-Sector Investor

The 100+ BlueBirds booked for 2027–28 come from the same management team whose launch guidance has slipped every quarter for a year and talking about 2028 for the first launch of BlackLift. Not saying it can't happen, but let's have healthy skepticism. x.com

AlvaSupportsOn this view, booked capacity offers less reassurance that AST will meet its revised mid-2027 deployment target.

Dow Jones

13 Nov, 14:59

Real-Time Financial News Wire

AST needs more launch capacity to finish off its communications constellation. Space launch capacity is constrained these days. There is more stuff people want to put into space than rockets to carry it. tradingview.com

AlvaSupportsThis reinforces the risk of further slippage in AST’s mid-2027 deployment target.

Dow Jones

11 Nov, 11:23

Real-Time Financial News Wire

Japan's Rakuten Group Inc. and U.S. startup AST SpaceMobile Inc. announced Monday that they will launch a service that will enable direct communication between smartphones and satellites in Japan by the end of March 2029. tradingview.com

AlvaSupportsThe planned Japan service launch by the end of March 2029 gives AST and Rakuten a concrete deadline for turning their partnership into an operating satellite-to-smartphone network.

Andrew Martin Johnson

9 Nov, 22:00

CFO & Chief Legal Officer of AST SpaceMobile

We continue to work on several Q4 revenue opportunities that will ultimately determine where we fall within our guidance range, but have high confidence that revenue acceleration this quarter will result in achievement of our full year 2026 revenue guidance with potential upside.

AlvaSupportsManagement expresses high confidence in achieving the $150M–$200M FY2026 revenue guide, with potential upside, while Q4 opportunities will determine where revenue lands within the range.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

9 Nov, 22:00

Space-based cellular broadband network

We expect to spend several hundred million dollars of incremental CapEx in 2027 associated with Blacklift.

AlvaChallengesAST expects several hundred million dollars of incremental Blacklift capex in 2027, increasing demands on its $3.2B cash balance during the delayed satellite rollout.

Rocket Lab USA, Inc.

9 Nov, 22:00

Space Company Providing Launch Services, Spacecraft and Satellite Components

The launch capacity is incredibly constrained, and as constrained as you usually kind of see. ... In many respects, we're rooting for everybody, because even when we bring Neutron to market that it's not going to satisfy the demand that's required. And also 50% of Neutron is for everybody else, and 50% is for us.

AlvaChallengesRocket Lab expects launch shortages to persist after Neutron enters service, with 50% of its capacity reserved internally, strengthening the strategic case for AST’s Blacklift despite existing external launch deals.

Space Investor

9 Nov, 21:41

Space-Sector Investor

The target of about 45 satellites in orbit moved to mid-2027, from early 2027. ... The custom ASIC chips were pulled forward to BlueBird 34 from BlueBird 50, with 6 ASIC satellites a month starting in December. x.com

AlvaMixedAST’s 45-satellite target slipping from early to mid-2027 reinforces deployment timing risk, while ASIC integration advancing to BlueBird 34 and six ASIC satellites monthly from December improve the production outlook.

Scott Wisniewski

9 Nov, 13:25

President & Chief Strategy Officer of AST SpaceMobile

Thrilled to announce J-LEO final award today alongside partner Rakuten! ~$1 billion in non-dilutive funding towards spacecraft and launch from the Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. x.com

AlvaChallengesAbout $1B in non-dilutive funding for spacecraft and launch eases AST’s financing needs, weakening the concern that its spending plans require further dilution.

Space Investor

6 Nov, 18:18

Space-Sector Investor

AST SpaceMobile told the FCC it will start direct-to-cell service in Brazil with TIM, one of the country's largest carriers, very soon. ... Brazil would be AST's first commercial market outside the US. x.com

AlvaSupportsAST’s stated plan to start service soon with TIM in Brazil would establish its first commercial market outside the US, supporting the network and carrier value treated as upside in the thesis.

Reuters

6 Nov, 15:25

Global News Agency

Firefly Aerospace signs rocket engine deal valued at more than $1.3 billion with AST SpaceMobile ... Firefly Aerospace - to deliver 27 Miranda engines and 9 Vira engines to AST SpaceMobile ... Firefly Aerospace - AST SpaceMobile to pay Firefly over $1.30 billion in cash and Class A common stock tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesThe $1.3B-plus engine commitment weakens the claim that AST’s network and upside come effectively free; it adds a substantial cost, though the deal value includes Class A stock as well as cash.

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