Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
Apple stock remains unattractive as memory costs threaten demand and supply. Nikkei reports memory-driven iPhone price hikes dampened demand, with October Pro and Pro Max component orders cut at least 15%; Chinese media instead cite a slight Pro dip and Pro Max rise. Apple may still lack long-term memory supply deals, according to market chatter; Korean analysts expect sharp NAND and DRAM price hikes for Apple early next year. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Apple could face significant pressure from 4Q26 as the AI memory shortage deepens. Per Morgan Stanley's notes from Nvidia's roadshow, Nvidia expects the memory shortage to last several years; if even Nvidia is memory-constrained, Apple can hardly escape. Hyperscalers that cut memory per unit of compute will, through Jevons' paradox, deploy more compute and buy more memory, squeezing device makers that compete for the same supply without AI economics. iPhone prices could rise by as much as $400. x.com
zerohedge
Financial Blog and News Aggregator
Flash Crash: Kioxia Warns NAND Price Surge Ending, Sending Sandisk Plunging x.com
AlvaChallengesThe reported warning that NAND's price surge is ending challenges expectations of sustained increases in Apple's flash costs.
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
PC shipments fell about 20% year-over-year in the third quarter, according to International Data Corp. The reason: Computer-memory prices have skyrocketed because of unprecedented memory demand for AI computing. As a result, PC manufacturers are focusing on higher-priced computers, reducing sales volumes. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsA roughly 20% annual decline in Q3 PC shipments, linked here to soaring memory prices and a shift toward costlier models, strengthens the case that memory inflation can reduce device volumes.
Sravan Kundojjala
Semiconductor Industry Analyst at SemiAnalysis
Kioxia QSep26 ... CY27 capacity fully sold out; LTAs cover 50%+ of CY28 bit shipments x.com
AlvaSupportsLong-term deals covering more than half of 2028 bit shipments extend the evidence of committed NAND supply, making Apple's own contract coverage more consequential.
The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
Kioxia H1 FY27 Results (YoY, JPY): ... "Sales prices significantly increased, driving the majority of this quarter’s revenue growth" x.com
AlvaSupportsSignificantly higher selling prices at an Apple flash supplier strengthen the thesis that memory inflation is pressuring procurement costs.The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
Kioxia's entire CY2027 production capacity is already sold out x.com
AlvaSupportsFully committed 2027 capacity at a major Apple flash supplier strengthens the case that securing NAND supply will remain difficult and costly.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
The WSJ's Rolfe Winkler reports that ... Two years ago, Apple bought nearly twice the flash storage of Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Google combined. Hyperscalers are now buying double Apple's share. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsThe reversal in relative flash purchases weakens Apple's bargaining position against suppliers, strengthening the thesis that AI demand threatens its memory costs and supply access.Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
TrendForce: ... 4Q26 PC DRAM contract price increases confirmed at +13–18% QoQ, moderating from +18–23% in 3Q26. ... OEM DRAM inventories rose from 6–9 weeks at the end of 3Q26 to 7–10 weeks in early 4Q26, with further accumulation expected during the quarter. ... Korean suppliers are set to deepen their PC DRAM supply cuts to more than 40% YoY, accelerating the shift toward server DRAM. x.com
AlvaMixedRising DRAM costs and supplier shifts toward server memory support the thesis's memory-cost and supply-pressure concerns, while falling notebook shipments and accumulating OEM inventories point to weaker device demand that could limit pricing power.
Intel Corporation
Software and Hardware Developer Community
We are not optimistic about next year in terms of memory. We think it is going to impact the TAM. We think TAM will be down 10% on a unit basis next year... But our expectation is that it does not improve in 27.
AlvaSupportsIntel expects memory conditions to remain difficult through 2027 and forecasts a 10% decline in PC unit demand, reinforcing the risk of prolonged demand pressure.
Amazon.com, Inc.
E-Commerce, Cloud Computing (AWS) and Digital Advertising Company
Even with heightened component costs like memory, the significant depreciation from the CapEx we're investing, we continue to accelerate our CapEx payback and have even more conviction than we already have that the investment we're making in HWC will yield a much larger revenue and free cash flow generating business than we would have imagined a couple of years ago with strong return on invested capital.
AlvaSupportsAccelerating cloud investment payback despite higher memory costs supports sustained hyperscaler spending, reinforcing competition for the memory supply Apple needs.
Sandisk Corporation
Developer and manufacturer of NAND flash storage devices and solutions
We do expect pricing to continue to increase modestly throughout the year.
AlvaSupportsExpected further modest NAND price increases throughout the year reinforce the thesis that Apple's memory costs will remain under pressure.
Chamath Palihapitiya
Founder & CEO of Social Capital, Co-Founder & CEO of 8090
At the same time, the pattern that ended previous memory booms may also be showing up again. The makers are using their record cash to expand production capacity. New factories are scheduled to arrive from 2027 to 2029. China’s DRAM champion, CXMT, is expanding too, with its share of global DRAM revenue jumping from 4% to 10% in just a year, according to Counterpoint. ... The next memory bust does not need SI to stop growing. The last two downturns began with customers working through inventory. x.com
AlvaChallengesNew factories arriving in 2027–2029 and the potential for inventory-driven order pauses challenge the thesis that memory scarcity and elevated costs will persist for Apple.The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
$INTC CEO: ... The pace of this PC correction has accelerated over the last two months. As our OEM partners are aggressively managing inventory to match the softer sell-through. x.com
AlvaSupportsAn accelerating PC correction and supplier inventory cuts in response to weaker sell-through strengthen the case that memory-driven price pressure can translate into lower device orders.
Fireside Alpha
Business, Technology and Investing Interview Digest
$SNDK CEO: ... we’re hearing from our customers that they have underestimated the amount of NAND they need to run their infrastructure. And so we have multiple customers coming back for a second round and then balancing that against bringing new customers into the portfolio. x.com
AlvaSupportsCustomers returning for additional NAND after underestimating infrastructure needs point to mounting competition for flash supply, reinforcing Apple's sourcing and cost risks.The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
SanDisk CEO ... a structural increase in NAND demand driven particularly by AI and by customer signals now extending beyond fiscal year 2030 through our new business model, our NBM partnerships." x.com
AlvaSupportsAI-driven NAND customer signals extending beyond fiscal 2030 strengthen the case for prolonged competition for Apple's memory supply.Fireside Alpha
Business, Technology and Investing Interview Digest
SanDisk CFO Luis Visoso: “Our NBM pipeline exceeds our supply throughout the end of the decade.” ... For context, we expect a strong market in calendar year 2027. Data center is expected to be, again, the engine of growth and represent over 55% of the market, with bit demand growing about 40% year-on-year, enabled by higher AI-driven capital spending. x.com
AlvaSupportsA customer pipeline exceeding supply through decade-end and projected 40% growth in data-center bit demand in 2027 strengthen the case for sustained competition for Apple's flash supply.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Intel says a slowdown across the personal computer market driven by a shortage of memory technology weighed on its results in the third quarter. ... Intel says the trends in the PC markets are impacting its total addressable market, with CFO David Zinsner projecting that the PC slowdown will continue at least through the first half of 2027. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsA memory-driven PC slowdown is already weighing on results and is expected to continue through at least the first half of 2027, strengthening the case that memory pressure can reduce device demand.Sam Altman
podcast
For a very long time, if you were a producer of DRAM, you would invest $20 billion of CapEx to make $19 billion. ... Until right now, I don't think making memory has ever been a great business over a long period of time. And then all of a sudden, these guys are each going to make like $100 billion of free cash flow in a year. ... I think they all remember their history. How many times they almost went bankrupt by making too many fabs and being promised this time it was different. media.transistor.fm
AlvaSupportsMemory makers’ history of weak returns and boom-bust cycles may keep them cautious about expanding capacity, reinforcing the thesis’s concern that supply could remain tight.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
According to TechInsights, Apple is on track to spend $25 billion on flash storage this year-up from $6 billion in 2025 for roughly the same volume. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsProjected flash spending of $25 billion versus $6 billion for roughly unchanged volume quantifies a substantial cost burden, strengthening the thesis that memory inflation threatens Apple's margins and pricing.Sravan Kundojjala
Semiconductor Industry Analyst at SemiAnalysis
DRAM ASP up around 20% q/q, bit shipments up low-to-mid single digit % q/q ... NAND ASP up high-teens % q/q, bit shipments up mid-single digit % q/q (below guidance) x.com
AlvaSupportsReported quarterly increases of around 20% in DRAM prices and high-teens percentages in NAND prices strengthen the case for continued pressure on Apple's memory costs.Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
SAMSUNG: WE HAVE SIGNED LONG-TERM MEMORY SUPPLY AGREEMENTS (LTAS) WITH 10 MAJOR CUSTOMERS AND ARE IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH ANOTHER 10. ... SAMSUNG: GIVEN CURRENT CONTRACT NEGOTIATION TRENDS, IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT 60–70% OF OUR TOTAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY WILL BE COVERED BY LONG-TERM SUPPLY AGREEMENTS THROUGH 2030. x.com
AlvaSupportsSigned deals with 10 customers and prospective LTA coverage of 60–70% of capacity through 2030 raise the stakes for Apple's ability to secure its own long-term memory supply.