Intel's production was reportedly affected by a pause at its Israel fabs, which should benefit competitors Arm and AMD. Both look good on that basis. x.com 

Arm is well positioned in the AI CPU stack as agentic AI drives massive CPU demand and x86 loses ground. Its new AGI CPU, its first production silicon, comes with a five-year goal of about $15 billion in chip revenue, $25 billion total and more than $9 in EPS, roughly 38% annual growth, though meaningful revenue is not expected until fiscal 2028. Royalties from third-party CPUs like Nvidia's Vera add another path. That TAM expansion could take out its roughly $185 all-time high within two years. … Show more

Arm's valuation carries an absurd premium for the architecture layer. It trades at 91.9x EV/sales, far above its historical range, as Wall Street prices it as the mandatory royalty tollbooth for every custom AI chip. EDA leaders Cadence, at 30.1x, and Synopsys, at 21.2x, trade near the low end of their historical bands, priced like mature utilities, as the market stacks almost all the scarcity premium into Arm. x.com 

Arm is no longer just an IP licensing story but is moving up the stack into finished silicon, and the market is finally starting to price that in. It is positioning itself as a broader compute platform for the agentic AI era, with much more value to capture if its server CPU push scales. x.com 

Arm collects royalties across the CPUs that AI workloads increasingly need, including AWS Graviton5, Google Axion, Azure Cobalt 200, Nvidia Grace and Vera, Qualcomm's Dragonfly C1000 and nearly all leading DPUs and SmartNICs. Anthropic locked in $11.6B over seven years with Akamai, expandable to about $20B, specifically for CPU workloads. x.com  x.com 

Arm cannot even raise its $2 billion customer-interest figure in what should be the greatest CPU market of our lifetimes, and whether it can deliver even that is still unproven. x.com 

Arm signaled confidence in securing supply allocations: CEO Rene Haas said Arm can secure enough supply to meet $2B of customer demand for its AGI CPU, and real demand is probably larger, with growth supply-constrained as usual. Supply, not demand, is the limiting factor from Nvidia to its upstream suppliers; Ciena also says component availability is what limits its growth. x.com 

Arm's low blended royalties leave pricing and mix leverage that makes earnings look massively understated at 110x forward P/E. It collects about 7 cents per chip overall, versus $1 on compute and networking chips and $0.85-$0.90 on smartphones. An 8-cent bump to 15 cents per chip is a hypothetical $5-6 billion royalty-revenue scenario, which would be pure cash. Mix shift and price increases are coming, though royalties may not double. x.com  x.com 

Arm is far too expensive for slowing growth. It trades at 220x earnings and 45x 2026 revenue for about 20% top-line growth, while core royalty growth slowed from 27% last quarter to 11% and margins fell. Its push into data-center CPUs makes it roughly the 35th company launching them, in a market that will compete on price. x.com 

Arm's Neoverse is turning rising cloud infrastructure spending into recurring royalty revenue, and shipments are accelerating: over 1.5 billion cores, with the first billion taking about six years and the latest 500 million just nine months. Buying DreamBig Semiconductor for $265M takes Arm into AI networking silicon, as Mellanox did for Nvidia. Jefferies lifted its target to $320 after Arm raised its CPU revenue outlook to $18B. Clearing $288.50 and the 50 EMA targets $310.50 and $337. x.com