Art of Speculation
Chinese-Language AI Fundamentals & Macro, Concentrated Investing
BlackBerry is effectively a bet on QNX, which holds the safety-critical software layer of Physical AI. QNX has about 38% of the global auto OS market, in over 275M vehicles; Q4 revenue rose 20% to $78.7M and its royalty backlog reached $950M. Integration with Nvidia's IGX Thor extends it into robots, medical and industrial systems, where years-long safety certification makes it hard to replace. Its other businesses grow slowly, so a QNX slowdown would leave no second engine. x.com
BlackBerry's value is still undiscovered, and its rally looks like a repricing after a long-term bottom rather than pure sentiment. The weekly chart broke the $6-7 resistance zone in place since 2012 as the market reassesses its strategic position in QNX, edge AI, automotive systems and real-time operating systems. Big moves often start when people think a stock has already risen too much. x.com
BlackBerry's $1.2B QNX backlog looks substantial against its $5B market cap. Quarter-over-quarter earnings growth, positive EBITDA and its Nvidia physical-AI and robotics RTOS partnership underpin the bullish case. x.com x.com
BlackBerry's QNX royalty backlog above $1.2B gives greater visibility into future high-margin software revenue. It rose 26% in two quarters, reflecting demand in software-defined vehicles and potential for more royalties per vehicle, with opportunities in autonomous systems and robotics. The backlog is not guaranteed revenue. x.com
BlackBerry's turnaround is real, but the stock already prices in a lot of execution that hasn't shown up in the numbers. QNX revenue rose 20% to a record $78.7 million, its royalty backlog hit $950 million, and a deeper Nvidia deal takes QNX into robotics, medical and industrial systems. But after a roughly 140% gain it trades above 100x earnings, most analysts rate it Hold with targets about 50% below the price, and growth still leans on autos, exposed to tariffs and slower car production. … Show more
BlackBerry's completed pivot to software is showing up in the numbers, and the market is only now catching up. QNX runs in 275 million cars, grew a record 20% in Q4 and has a $950 million royalty backlog, while its NVIDIA IGX Thor integration opens safety-certified robotics, medical and industrial AI. Secure Communications is moving into defense, with customer TKMS. Q4 beat on both lines with revenue up 10%, and FY27 guidance calls for double-digit growth and $100 million of cash flow. x.com
BlackBerry's QNX is a hidden physical AI play, the software running 275 million vehicles and much of the medical device and robotics market. QNX revenue rose 25.7% to $72.3M at an 86% gross margin, now 47.3% of the company. It counts all top 10 automakers, 9 of 10 medical device makers, 8 of 10 surgical robotics platforms and 300+ robotics programs, and Nvidia, Qualcomm, NXP, Intel, Texas Instruments and Renesas run QNX in their ecosystems. x.com
BlackBerry is expensive against its cash earnings, trading at 42 times this year's and 38 times next year's, while software companies usually get about 30. Fair value runs about $6.05 to $7.70, or 30 times next year's cash earnings, so at $8.73 buyers pay roughly 13% above the top of that range; above $10.18 it is expensive. x.com
BlackBerry's QNX is becoming a non-negotiable foundation for physical AI and smart vehicles, driving high-margin recurring royalties. Its Global Embedded Market segment is now its fastest-growing, the robotics and industrial-automation pipeline is at a record high, and Nvidia is embedding QNX in autonomous machine stacks. Quarterly revenue of $152.9 million beat the $137.7 million consensus, and management raised full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance. x.com
BlackBerry's re-rating case is getting more tangible after a print that delivered the evidence it needed. QNX revenue rose 27%, it landed its largest-ever design win, and operating cash-flow guidance went up. It wasn't perfect, since Secure Communications still needs work, but the long stance holds. x.com
BlackBerry has become a critical-systems software company, as its QNX software is the hidden operating system in 275 million cars, running collision warnings, blind-spot detection, adaptive cruise and lane-keep assist. The same technology runs surgical robots, medical devices and factory automation. QNX is now 50% of revenue, and BlackBerry has posted four straight profitable quarters, its first since it competed with the iPhone. It combines meme-stock appeal with real fundamentals. x.com
As long as QNX revenue keeps coming through, BlackBerry can be valued beyond a cybersecurity discount, as a safety-licensing platform for software-defined cars and edge AI devices. QNX sits in cars, industrial gear, robots and medical devices, where high switching costs and long certification make cash flow sticky. Its roughly $1B backlog will not land at once but raises the perceived ceiling, and new customers can grow it. Money rotating from crowded AI names to edge AI helps too. x.com x.com … Show more
