Cerebras at about a $100B market cap already prices in its execution upside aggressively, leaving downside risk. The bull case is real: it is a genuine new architecture in AI compute, with OpenAI's $20B+ contract plus Amazon Web Services, Meta, Perplexity, GSK, Mistral, Notion and AlphaSense diversifying it away from G42 in the UAE. But Nvidia's Vera Rubin ramp in the second half of 2026, a possible Nvidia absorption of Groq and the CUDA moat weigh on it. A position might make sense nearer $200. x.com
