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Serenity

AI & Semiconductor Supply-Chain Researcher, Trader

12 May, 13:58Latest

Fluence faces a material short-term overhang after management made about 117.7 million shares eligible for shelf-registered resale. The 20 million-share offering is an unlock and transfer, not dilution, but it leaves roughly 97 million more shares able to be sold, expanding the float and adding selling pressure. That creates a heavy psychological overhang even if nothing is sold; left alone, the stock could easily have doubled. The pending hyperscaler deals are what to watch. x.com x.com

FLNC

11 May, 23:27

Fluence should be a lot higher because landing two direct hyperscaler master supply agreements in one quarter is enormous, and hyperscalers like Microsoft and Amazon don't sign small deals. Fluence expects the orders to hit in Q3, and multiple wins in one quarter signal more as its battery storage becomes standardized. The market is waiting for purchase order numbers, yet short interest near 27.7% may squeeze, and a massive deal with a hyperscaler like Google could spark a generational run. x.com x.com

FLNC

mark

Retail Investor, AI Hardware Supply-Chain Research

13 May

FLNC

Fluence faces price pressure because its freely tradable float is expanding sharply while total shares stay the same. Even if the roughly 97 million shares are not sold right away, buyers won't chase knowing heavy selling could come at any time. The scarcity premium of a small float disappears as it widens, and more tradable shares also mean more stock to borrow for shorting. Fluence is a good company; the objection is to how this was handled. x.com

The Few Bets That Matter

Concentrated Equity Investor, AI Infrastructure

6 Aug

FLNC

Fluence's story has shifted from massive demand to execution risk. Its first hyperscaler MSA finally converted into an $850M order, but production delays, quality issues and reduced guidance raised doubts about whether it can deliver. The stock lost its trend and broke every major support, a sign the market saw the change before anyone could explain it. x.com

Finn Stockinger

Equity Analyst & Investor, Technology Research

8 May

FLNC

Fluence Energy's hyperscaler validation makes it more valuable even after the stock's jump, because two direct hyperscaler contracts change the math for a company this size. A post the author replies to notes that such contracts at a tiny market cap typically lead to a massive re-rating, and @jimmyhuli points to 37% short interest before earnings. x.com x.com

Nate Endicott

Retail Investor, AI Infrastructure & Nebius

17 Sep

FLNC

Fluence Energy's 20% guidance cut reflects incompetent leadership, which is exactly why investing in leaders matters. Per @wallstengine, Fluence now expects fiscal 2026 revenue of about $2.4 billion, down from a roughly $3.0 billion midpoint, and an adjusted EBITDA loss near $200 million, blaming delays ramping its Houston contract manufacturing facility. The company says corrective actions have improved daily production and targets neutral to positive operating cash flow in fiscal 2027. x.com

RocketMan

Space Investor, Rocket Lab Focus

6 Sep

FLNC

Fluence Energy is unattractive because its margins are poor, however tempting the share price looks. x.com

Gabz

Stock & Crypto Trader, SuperTrend Indicator Owner

12 May

FLNC

Fluence Energy's 14% drop on a 20M-share offering is overhang noise, not dilution, since the offering is a share unlock and transfer. About 97M more shares are now eligible for resale, creating short-term selling pressure, but the daily uptrend is intact above the 200-day EMA with strong inflows. Holding $21.75 keeps the structure intact, reclaiming $23-$23.80 resumes bullish momentum, and a break below $19.10 would mean reassessing everything. x.com

Micro2Macr0

Macro Economist

6 Aug

FLNC

Fluence Energy is not worth touching unless its fundamentals are clearly amazing, and even then it could fail because manufacturing is hard. x.com

DYOptions

Options Trader

23 Oct

SPCX

SpaceX's large share unlock magnified the selling-pressure risk. The biggest unlock amounted to 30% of its float. x.com

Oliver | MMMT Wealth

Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis

7 May

FLNC

Fluence Energy's $5.6B backlog exceeds its roughly $3.4B market cap by about 65%, so contracted future revenue is worth more than the business today, assuming execution holds. FY26 revenue guidance is $3.2-3.6B, and the backlog excludes a 12GW hyperscaler pipeline; announcing two hyperscaler deals in Q2 or Q3 could drive a bigger re-rating. Its software business, growing ARR 22% on top of the installed base, deserves at least 3x sales versus 0.5x for the whole company. x.com x.com

Gublo

Small/Mid-Cap Trader, Multibagger/Penny Stocks, Earnings Analysis & Signals

16 Sep

FLNC

Fluence Energy is bearish in the short term after its guidance cut, with the shares heading to new 52-week lows, though the long-term view remains bullish. x.com

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