Herman Jin
Formerly in Asia FICC at Goldman Sachs, Macro & Semiconductor Investing
SK hynix's problem is governance, not memory. Mr. Chey is swapping underpriced HBM for NVIDIA cards to build SK Telecom into a Korean cloud provider, lining his own pockets there because his stake in SK hynix is far smaller. At Samsung, middle management runs memory prices like a personal bonus pool. Replying to @yuntungshieh's complaint of rubbish corporate governance, shareholder interests at Korean companies are dismissed as a joke. x.com x.comÂ
SK hynix shares are an understandable buy, but the leveraged 7709 product is a poor way to own them, because it combines leverage on SK hynix with a short-volatility position. At current volatility the stock is unlikely to rise smoothly a few points a day, so shorting SK hynix volatility makes no sense. Buying the shares, in-the-money LEAP calls or even leveraged exposure is acceptable. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Samsung's HBM4 ramp makes SK hynix's ability to defend its HBM lead the key question in the memory race. Chosun Biz reports SK hynix's HBM4 shipments may have missed expectations for a second straight quarter amid Nvidia Rubin delays and chip tuning. Counterpoint puts Samsung's Q2 HBM share at 33%, up from 21%; TrendForce expects strong SK hynix Q3 profits. Samsung is the preferred memory stock right now, though there may be no single clear winner. SK hynix's October 28 report is the next check. … Show more
SK hynix should reprice strongly because its blowout earnings make the case that memory is structurally different now. At the current earnings pace, it would earn back its entire market cap in two years; buybacks and dividends also return cash to shareholders and add to value. x.comÂ
SK hynix stands to benefit from higher HBM prices as supply remains constrained. Needham expects HBM price increases next year and tight memory supply through 2030; SK hynix has finalized 2027 HBM prices and volumes with major customers. SK hynix also plans roughly KRW100 trillion in FY2026 shareholder returns, including at least KRW30 trillion in dividends and KRW60 trillion in share acquisitions and cancellations. x.com x.comÂ
SK hynix's record earnings and five-year volume and spec agreements make its valuation look too low. Quarterly revenue reached KRW104.62T, up 32%, and operating profit hit $63B against a $785B market cap, below AMD's and less than half Tesla's. Its planned KRW100T (~$75B) shareholder return would be one of the world's largest, signaling conviction and unusual demand visibility. AI-inference 3D DRAM is coming by 2030; a reasonable valuation is all that is sought. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
SK hynix looks like the weakest storage short because it has fallen behind. More negative news may follow beyond HBM4; its LPDDR6 is reportedly well behind Samsung's. x.com x.comÂ
Tight memory supply keeps the AI memory supplier trade in bill-of-materials names if it persists. The investor aleabitoreddit reports an SK hynix shortage outlook through 2030 and an operating-margin result near 80%. HBM allocation and average-selling-price guidance are the next tests; Korea has already priced the earnings print, so the next move depends on who locks capacity. x.comÂ
SK hynix remains a buying opportunity, with its US ADR premium over Korean shares now at an all-time low of 32.66%. x.com x.comÂ
Higher HBM stack requirements favor Samsung Electronics shares, even as the broader semiconductor industry suffers and DRAM is in dire straits. Daishin Securities says plans for 4-high and 6-high HBM in low-end inference appear shelved, while Nvidia's 8-high Rubin option appears dropped amid base-die supply constraints and customers' preference for bandwidth. x.comÂ
SK hynix's enforceable long-term supply commitments add visibility to memory profits. It says DRAM and HBM volumes through 2029 are effectively sold out, with agreements covering over half of 2027-28 capacity while retaining pricing flexibility. Operating profit beat expectations at $62.8B versus about $58B, and SK hynix announced $75B in 2026 shareholder returns. It expects the memory shortage to persist through 2030. x.comÂ
SK Square could outperform SK hynix as Hynix buybacks raise its 20% ownership to 25-30% over the next few years and cash distributions let SK Square repurchase shares or buy more Hynix, potentially shrinking its 45% NAV discount. It remains the favorite memory exposure; if SK hynix doubles in 12-18 months, SK Square could gain 30-40% more than Hynix. x.comÂ
