US large-cap equities are vulnerable because earnings have not caught up with total market capitalization. The market is farther from its 200-week moving average than at any point in 18 years, and cracks are starting to show; staying bullish ignores these risks. Rate hikes remain possible, oil is still high, and yields may climb again, so now is the time for caution. x.com  x.com 

US stocks face persistent uncertainty around the midterms through year-end as military-strike risk remains unresolved. Until a strike occurs or a genuine peace deal is signed, the market cannot price that risk confidently. x.com 

US large-cap equities do not look like a bubble at current forward valuations. The S&P 500 forward P/E is below both its five- and ten-year averages, while tech and momentum have suffered their worst five-month decline by far. x.com 

US large-cap equities look too close to their highs for a weak macro backdrop. Oil has crossed $100, rates are at 5%, inflation is worse than reported and real jobs are scarce, yet the market sits only 2% off its highs. The S&P 500 is about to lose its 50-day moving average. x.com  x.com 

The S&P 500's rally into the midterms rests on options illiteracy rather than conviction, and proper risk weighting means taking risk off the table. Investors buying fast-decaying puts to save on premium create supportive charm flows that bid the market up. x.com 

Post-midterm market strength calls for patience with US large-cap equities. KHerriage's quoted post cites an average S&P 500 gain of 29.9% over the next 15 months in post-midterm periods since 1950, with gains in 19 of 19 years. x.com 

This market looks sick as Middle East tensions rise and oil heads for a third straight weekly gain. The Dow is on pace for a third negative week and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 for a second, while the 10-year yield holds below 4.7% and Tesla and Alphabet try to hold steady. x.com 

The S&P 500 looks set to roll over because it skipped the retest that has followed every breakout for six years. Each time it broke to all-time highs, ran into price discovery, then topped and retested prior highs before starting over; this time there was no retest, while bond yields are soaring and war is driving them higher. A correction comes every cycle, more likely than not, though an 8% drop would be a pullback rather than a crash. x.com  x.com 

Far less inflated valuations and significant AI earnings make US equities unlike the dot-com market top. AI/SI spending may still be overexuberant. Rates and yields have returned to historical averages; more oil through the Strait of Hormuz and from OPEC and Russia should lower oil and inflation. The market may not have bottomed yet, but falling yields, steady rates and the midterms passing should let it climb the wall of worry. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crude oil and the XLE energy-sector ETF would be buys on a pullback because uncertainty over a real military strike could hang over the US market from the midterms through year-end. Only an actual strike or a true peace deal would settle that uncertainty. x.com