Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
Cerebras may lose demand as OpenAI appears to be shifting some workloads away from Nvidia and Cerebras. The concern is that Broadcom's Jalapeño chip is delivering stronger performance, potentially reducing demand for Cerebras, whose stock is back near 52-week lows. x.com
Anthropic's $63B custom-chip deal bolsters Broadcom's case for growth from custom AI silicon. OpenAI's Jalapeño chip is seen as next, and the AI chip supercycle is just getting started. x.com
Cerebras looks attractive because the short report's two-year wafer-life thesis rests on unvalidated reliability assumptions, not representative failure data. Energy per useful token, lower warranty utilization and ordinary repair accounting also undercut its financial conclusions. OpenAI has integrated Cerebras into production; AMD and AWS have announced integrations, while Oracle plans 2027 availability for ultra-fast inference, adding commercial validation despite the report. x.com x.com
Cerebras has incredible technology but lacks the resources of the largest players in an increasingly competitive market. Per @SemiAnalysis_, OpenAI's latest GPT-6.1 Sol Ultrafast runs on Nvidia GPUs, not Cerebras. Next could be OpenAI dropping Cerebras for its own Jalapeño chip, and AMD is also exploring how to replace Cerebras, starting with its Taalas acquisition. x.com
Cerebras faces brutal competition from SpaceX, and competing in AI models or data centers requires cash at scale. SpaceX is already trashing Cerebras and CoreWeave. x.com
Better power delivery appears to be helping Cerebras work through wafer-scale power and thermal limits more than expected. CS-4 gets higher clocks and improved I/O from WSE-3T, despite the same core count and SRAM capacity as WSE-3. Oracle, OpenAI and AWS choosing to work with Cerebras carries weight. But higher clocks do not answer Culper Research's allegation that its wafers fail after about two years; how representative those failures are of current systems remains unclear. x.com
Broadcom's top growth driver, Google TPUs, can be captured elsewhere, such as through Vicor, while its OpenAI exposure through the Jalapeño chip is unwanted in light of today's news, even if that proves a nothingburger. Broadcom should still do great and may be worth re-entering later, but the capital can find better ways to outperform it. x.com x.com
Cerebras is a name to stay far away from. It tanked after OpenAI said its new chip with Broadcom outperforms Nvidia's, underlining how heavily Cerebras is tied to OpenAI, a dependence that hurt Oracle. It is also a recent IPO, a good share of its stock is owned by OpenAI insiders, and it is insanely volatile. x.com
Vicor's efficient delivery of key power modules is part of the case for Cerebras meeting and exceeding its 2028-29 numbers. As models improve, more security breaches and deployments should make Cerebras look increasingly like a cybersecurity play. Its revenue ramp looks constrained by capacity, not yet by demand. Bullish on Cerebras but cautious on the broader market, with no short-term earnings prediction. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Broadcom's custom AI chips for major customers position it as a clear winner in the continuing AI buildout. Kris Patel's case that efficiency and total cost of ownership leave Broadcom room to gain share from incumbent Nvidia is persuasive. Broadcom has not seen peers' upside and is 30% below its highs, making the stock an opportunity. x.com x.com