Oliver | MMMT Wealth
Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
dLocal can conservatively double from here as operating profit keeps compounding after its latest earnings report. Q2 operating profit of $64M annualizes to $256M, so at a $4B market cap the stock trades around 15.6x operating profit. Consensus EBIT of $474M in 2028 and $573M in 2029 implies 36% and 31% CAGRs, a fair base case given current growth. At 15x 2029 operating profit, enterprise value would reach $8.6B versus $3.4B today. x.comÂ
dLocal can reach about $3 billion of revenue by 2030, which makes even UBS's raised target conservative. UBS lifted its price target to $20 from $16, noting dLocal trades at 16x and 12x 2026 and 2027 earnings, a roughly 50% discount to global peers. Payment volume of $130 billion at a 2.3% take rate would yield about $600 million of net income, or roughly $2.00 per share. A 10x multiple gets to UBS's $30 target, and 16x, about $32, is the more likely range. x.comÂ
dLocal's business is materially better than in 2021, yet its valuation is far lower. It now generates nearly as much gross profit in one quarter as it did in all of 2021, while its market cap is $4B against a $20B peak in 2021. x.comÂ
dLocal's diversified model makes its sharp selloff look unwarranted. x.comÂ
dLocal faces stronger competitors and margins that will keep falling. Many of its regions are a constant uphill battle; even if it does well long term, payments stocks are uninvestable. x.comÂ
dLocal remains one of the highest-conviction long-term holdings, a hated moat whose great results drew only a 5% after-hours gain. Per @mvcinvesting, Q4 revenue was $337.9M versus $296.1M expected, free cash flow doubled to $64.7M and payment volume grew 70%. For 2026 dLocal guides 50-60% volume growth and 27.5-32.5% operating profit growth, and it announced a $300M buyback. x.comÂ
dLocal could be the Adyen of emerging markets, quietly building payment rails for the next billion consumers. It combines 25-30%+ growth, expanding margins and solid 2026 guidance with a surprisingly low valuation. x.comÂ
dLocal is growing nearly as fast as an LLM company yet trades at just 2x, so the dip is worth buying. x.com x.comÂ
dLocal is still cheap at a low-teens free-cash-flow multiple while growing 25-35%. It needs so little capital to sustain hypergrowth that it pays out half its free cash flow as dividends, and with almost no stock-based compensation it can keep growing well above 25% for a long time. At 10-12x free cash flow it looks worth multiples of the current price. x.com x.comÂ
dLocal is an overlooked picks-and-shovels play on emerging-market digital payments, combining real growth, real profitability and a huge runway outside the US. In the fourth quarter, payment volume grew 70%, revenue 65%, gross profit 38% and net income 87%. Full-year 2025 revenue crossed $1B for the first time, and adjusted free cash flow rose 110%. x.comÂ
DLocal is an overlooked opportunity because total payment volume is outgrowing its declining take rate by a wide margin, so the take-rate worry the market fixates on shouldn't be a problem. It also has a rock-solid balance sheet, an outstanding management team and a forward P/E of just 13. x.comÂ
dLocal's payment-volume growth is exceptional, so a declining take rate shouldn't worry investors while TPV and gross profit keep growing this fast. TPV rose 80% year over year in constant currency to $17.7B, the seventh straight quarter above 50%, and TPV and gross-profit guidance were raised. Net take rate fell to 0.72% from 0.84% as lower-margin local-to-local volume grew 141%, and Asia and Africa look weak. Management focuses on growth over take rate, though some slowdown would be welcome. … Show more
