Netflix's post-earnings drop is a good buying opportunity, since abandoning its Warner Bros bid makes it again one of the highest-certainty names. The market is treating the Warner termination payment as a one-time gain and giving it no valuation credit, which is normal. Buying at reasonable levels is the long-term positive-expected-value play; waiting to bottom-fish, like a poker hero call, builds a losing habit. x.com  x.com 

Paramount Skydance has 50-100% upside if its Warner Bros. Discovery merger looks likely to go through, odds that are only beginning to be priced in. At a market cap of about $8-9 billion, the stock still sits in bankruptcy territory, because a failed merger would essentially bankrupt Paramount, which cannot survive long on its debt. Big money will be made or lost on it, most likely made. x.com 

Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery slipped as if California Attorney General Rob Bonta's cancelled Monday settlement meeting were bad news, but it looks like a state raising its price. The DGA and IATSE publicly urged him weeks ago to settle with conditions because the delay itself hurts their members, so the pressure on him runs one way, and cancelling one sitdown after the other side plays games fits a negotiation. x.com  x.com 

Warner Bros. Discovery's merger-arbitrage spread was and remains too tight for the risks. A 9% discount requires Paramount Skydance's equity backstop to be ironclad, credit markets not to break and Oracle to stay solvent. States may also try to block the Paramount Skydance deal, and a "non-MAC MAC" could still threaten it. x.com  x.com 

Netflix should run now that the Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount acquisition is on hold, a catalyst that could give the stock a boost even if only temporarily. x.com  x.com 

Netflix's post-earnings selloff is warranted, and the stock arguably should be down more, because the quarter was mediocre. Backing out the termination fee from the Warner Bros deal, EPS only met the midpoint of guidance, when guidance ranges usually carry enough cushion to make beat-and-raise quarters common. A post the author replies to also calls the guidance terrible. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Netflix's financials should benefit from a $2.8B payment from Warner Bros. plus subscription price increases, making it worth a small speculative bet. x.com 

Skydance Paramount should probably be a ~$4 stock because, unlike Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery, it cannot break up or sell; the only way out is through. It starts almost 7x levered, needs mid-single-digit growth and $6B of synergies from two gutted companies, and interest is 150% of FCF as rates rise. Generative content and short-form video are existential threats, and any revenue decline makes sports rights unaffordable. Netflix has ~30% odds of a shot at the WB studio in a bankruptcy. … Show more

Netflix's valuation is still far from cheap for its growth profile, at over 20 times cash flow and 6 times sales, so the stock's continued fall after solid quarterly results is justified. After the failed Warner acquisition, Netflix still lacks timeless franchises and brands, and sequels to its own productions regularly disappoint and fall short of Disney and Warner quality. The stock is not worth touching even around $60. x.com