Dycom Industries posted strong earnings on telecom and infrastructure demand and has pulled back to support at the top of its June value area. x.comÂ
Christian Fromhertz
CEO of Tribeca Trade Group, Momentum Trader, Ex-BAML ETF Director
Dycom looks compelling because its infrastructure backlog and operating execution position it to benefit from AI's demand for power, fiber, and data centers. Its backlog has grown to $12.2 billion from $8 billion a year ago, Building Systems EBITDA margins exceed 20%, and Power Solutions is running 30% ahead of acquisition expectations. The long-term growth opportunity may be underappreciated as the market focuses on near-term margin pressure. x.comÂ
Harmonic's cOS turns it into a software business whose margins rise with every cable operator that converts from hardware. cOS virtualizes cable access networks, holds over 95% share of virtualized CCAP and serves every major US cable operator; DOCSIS 4.0 upgrades by Charter, Comcast and Cox against fiber require it. Q1 revenue rose 43% to $121.7M, backlog rose 87% to $582M of mostly software and services, and gross margin is 52%. At 3.5x forward revenue versus peers' 4-6x, it hasn't re-rated. … Show more
Electrical work is preferable to Dycom's communications-heavy business because it is non-discretionary while carriers delay spending they cannot afford. IES Holdings and Sterling Infrastructure look like better ways to play the data-center scare than neoclouds. Upcoming spectrum auctions may absorb carrier budgets, though Dycom might benefit from the carriers-versus-SpaceX narrative. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AmpliTech fits the telecom buildout because mobile network operators can no longer rely mainly on 1990s-style cabling and must expand faster and more efficiently. It is a risky microcap at about $100 million in market cap, but very cheap compared with its peers, offering exposure to a secular theme with a wide margin of safety. The position follows research into its earnings calls and competitors. x.comÂ
Dycom's record backlog keeps lengthening, so the market is repricing duration rather than demand. Its full-year revenue outlook rose only $55M: Building Systems up $215M, while the fiber-driven Communications business fell $160M as about $150M of wireless revenue slipped into fiscal 2028, and Communications margin fell 134bps to 13.6%. Backlog due within 12 months fell to 53% from 58%. If it stays near $6.5B, the book is 2029 revenue bought at 2027 prices; a jump past $7B would change the view. … Show more