Ross Gerber
CEO of Gerber Kawasaki, Portfolio Manager of GK ETF
Tesla still has to prove its robotaxi can scale safely, while Waymo is already scaling in Austin. The Cybercab is a great vehicle and one ride was perfect, better than Uber, but another took a 30-minute route instead of a direct 10-minute one as the navigation changed mid-trip. Its small service area avoids much difficulty, and downtown Austin is far easier than LA or New York. Austin is a highly competitive battleground among Tesla, Waymo and Uber, so vision-only remains unproven at scale. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Javier Blas
Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy and commodities, Co-author of The World for Sale
The nationwide average is down >5% over the las month. x.com
AlvaChallengesThe nationwide average gasoline price fell more than 5% over the last month, weakening the thesis's claim that Tesla's disappointing deliveries occurred while fuel prices remained high.
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
"The auto business is on track to grow this year after two years of declines, and 2027 should see further upside, supported by demand spurred by FSD, as well as rising exports from [Tesla's Chinese plant] Giga Shanghai." tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesBarclays analyst Levy expects Tesla's auto sales to return to growth this year, with FSD demand and Shanghai exports driving further gains in 2027, challenging the thesis's expectation of sustained sales weakness.
Walter Bloomberg
Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg
U.S. gasoline: $4.29/gallon, up 40% year-over-year x.com
AlvaSupportsRising gasoline costs strengthen the thesis that Tesla's sales are disappointing despite high fuel prices; the reported year-over-year increase is 40%.
Reuters
Global News Agency
For Tesla, all the talk is now about a potential merger with SpaceX, but its shares slipped another 5% overnight after its latest update. While it reported a positive free cash flow once again, its capex and car sales targets to 2030 came in well below forecast. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsReported car-sales targets through 2030 below forecasts reinforce the thesis that Tesla's vehicle growth is falling short of expectations.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Lower average sale prices in the face of fierce competition from China weighed on the vehicle business, Mould says. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsLower vehicle selling prices amid Chinese competition add pricing pressure to the thesis's concern about Tesla's weak sales.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
New-car registrations for Tesla models, a reflection of sales, jumped 72.5% on year in September to 68,776 units across the European Union, the U.K., Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, an industry body also known as ACEA. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesSeptember's sharp European registration growth challenges the thesis's expectation of continued weak Tesla sales, indicating a meaningful regional rebound.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Tesla flagged that limited battery availability is holding up production. ... The company finished the third quarter with its largest passenger-vehicle backlog in four years, it said in its earnings report. ... The company said it is making progress toward building a bigger supply to boost its battery production capabilities, with major projects in Berlin, Texas and Nevada. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedLimited battery availability offers a supply-side explanation for deliveries below a 2-million-car annual pace, while the four-year-high vehicle backlog points to demand Tesla has not yet fulfilled.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Tesla sold 486,532 electric vehicles globally in the third quarter, a 2% dip from the same period last year. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsThe reported 2% year-over-year decline supports the thesis that Tesla's deliveries are weakening.Reuters
Global News Agency
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, beating Wall Street expectations of about 461,100 vehicles. Deliveries were down about 2% from a year earlier...Wall Street expects about 1.77 million for 2026, according to Visible Alpha data. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedThe quarter's deliveries beat expectations, but the year-over-year decline and 1.77 million forecast leave the thesis's concern about Tesla's annual sales pace intact.
Jay Leno
Stand-up comedian, Former host of NBC's The Tonight Show
Tesla's getting hit on every side, plus the politics of it somehow getting involved in that Totally. Cost him a lot. Yeah. But with with the gas prices, well, Tesla sales were back up again, so it did okay. media.transistor.fm
AlvaMixedLeno's view of competitive and political pressure supports concern about Tesla's sales, while his claim that higher gas prices brought sales back up pushes against the thesis's assessment of current deliveries.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Oil prices rise, with Brent crude back above $110 a barrel as persistent attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia keep the risk premium high. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsBrent above $110 amid persistent attacks supports the thesis's point that Tesla's deliveries are disappointing even with gas prices through the roof.Walter Bloomberg
Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg
Tesla’s latest SEC filing fuels merger speculation, revealing SpaceX board ties and change-of-control provisions. ... Kalshi now prices a 67% chance of a merger before February 2027, up from roughly 30% earlier this month. x.com
AlvaSupportsThe reported filing details and rising market-implied odds strengthen the view that a Tesla–SpaceX merger is a meaningful potential source of support, though the odds are not confirmation that a deal will occur.
Sameer Dholakia
Growth Partner at Bessemer Venture Partners, Former CEO of SendGrid
Because you're looking at the ride hailing market as the only market. That's not the only market, Harry. ... Just like Tesla and Elon's got it for his FSD on his cars, I think Waymo has the opportunity to do that for every other OEM on the planet. Are they doing that today? It's not it's not their near term focus. They're focused on ride hailing. ... But when you take that same technology and capability and apply it to personal car ownership and then apply it to trucking and then apply it to logistics, Waymo's gonna be an extraordinary, I think, a trillion dollar business. Easy. traffic.libsyn.com
AlvaSupportsWaymo's potential to sell autonomy through other automakers would challenge Tesla beyond ride-hailing, though Dholakia says Waymo is currently focused on ride-hailing.
Jason Calacanis
LAUNCH founder and early-stage startup investor
[Replying to @quasi_mortal: "Does TSLA not eat Uber?"] No Tesla is 40% and wins AV gold uber and 30 partners gets silver at 35% market share x.com
AlvaChallengesThe forecast challenges doubts that Tesla can scale robotaxis, while its projected 35% share for Uber and partners limits the case that Tesla will dominate the market.
Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX
Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value. x.com
AlvaSupportsMusk’s valuation case rests on Optimus and Cybercab becoming the dominant sources of Tesla’s value, reinforcing the thesis’s concern that the investment outlook depends on unproven robotics and robotaxi outcomes.
Max Chafkin
Bloomberg Businessweek columnist and author of The Contrarian
really a marketing event. For the idea of a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up because the actual car that we saw here is not going to be sold in any volume because it's not street legal. ... But I think what this really is is a way to say, that SpaceX and Tesla are working closely together. ... And here is an attempt, I think, to sell that to shareholders at large. ... There isn't a whole lot of reaction, hasn't moved the stock price. podtrac.com
AlvaSupportsThe reveal builds a case for a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up rather than near-term EV sales, and its limited stock-market response casts doubt on how much support that prospect currently provides.Max Chafkin
Bloomberg Businessweek columnist and author of The Contrarian
Elon Musk has said many times that he does not think of Tesla as a car company. He thinks of it as an automation company. ... I think his long-term vision is that the hardware part of this business is sort of secondary and that what they're really selling is automation software. ... Tesla has a very, very, very successful automotive business. They sell lots of electric cars. We've seen their sales. Their sales kind of took a dive in 2025, but they've stabilized to some extent. Still not great. Still not growing, I think, in the way that some Tesla investors would have liked, but certainly somewhat improved over a year ago. ... he is operating this company in a way that does not suggest he's prioritizing the car business. podtrac.com
AlvaSupportsTesla's modest sales stabilization has not restored the growth some investors wanted, while Musk's apparent deprioritization of cars reinforces the thesis's concern that the investment case rests on automation rather than a clearly improving EV business.
David Welch
Bloomberg Detroit bureau chief covering the auto industry
I think you might see some better numbers because they did surprise on the upside with their third quarter vehicle sales. And analysts are basically forecasting better. Finally, some growth in Tesla's total vehicle sales after a couple years of decline. ... investors ... were going to be more interested in the robo-taxi business, how that's being rolled out, how that's coming, because that's really Elon's big play here is the cyber cab and whether or not that can start to get into many cities and compete with Waymo podtrac.com
AlvaMixedAnalysts’ forecast of sales growth after the third-quarter upside surprise challenges the view that Tesla’s core vehicle business remains under pressure, but it is a forecast, not a realized recovery. The focus on robotaxi rollout and competing with Waymo underscores how much the outlook depends on an unproven business.David Welch
Bloomberg Detroit bureau chief covering the auto industry
There are a lot of EVs out there. General Motors still has a dozen EVs on the market. ... And But the vehicles that are there just don't sell all that well. I think how people are reacting to gasoline prices in the U.S. is they're buying hybrids, which is why I've seen Toyota and Hyundai sales do so well. Not even plug-in hybrids, just your basic hybrid that doesn't require any charging. podtrac.com
AlvaSupportsThis supports the view that high gas prices are not translating into strong EV demand: Welch says consumers are choosing conventional hybrids while available EVs are selling poorly.Walter Bloomberg
Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco is becoming more constructive on Tesla, citing improving execution in Robotaxi and the core automotive business. x.com
AlvaChallengesMorgan Stanley's more constructive assessment of robotaxi and core automotive execution pushes against the thesis that both remain weak.