Austin Barack
CIO of RockawayX Liquid, Fundamental Long/Short Investing
Aerodrome's Momentum fund should meaningfully raise LP incentives during bootstrapping, drawing TVL from other DEXs until pool fees can sustain it. Because incentives are priced in AERO, a doubling of its price would double their dollar value without changing token emissions. Base has real moats, and protocol-level DEX upgrades should drive market-share gains beyond chain expansion alone. x.com
Aerodrome's major protocol-design and economic upgrades should be just as impactful as its expansion onto Ethereum and Robinhood Chain. Most of the market is overlooking the upgrades even as the new chains expand its addressable market. All the buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news AERO traders appear to have exited before launch; traders recognizing the fundamentals now look to be front-running them. x.com x.com
Merger-driven expansion across seven chains could increase AERO fees, while Predictive Allocation directs emissions toward markets expected to generate revenue instead of minting rewards that cannot be justified. Aero-related products processed about $16.2B in DEX volume and generated about $7.7M in protocol revenue over 30 days. TVL fell from about $429M to $362M, and emissions remain dilution if fee growth lags. x.com x.com
Aerodrome's planned merger with Velodrome could extend liquidity beyond Base and rerate AERO if revenue outgrows dilution. About 51% of supply was locked in veAERO for 3.7 years on average; Slipstream made ~$27.8M in Q3 gross revenue, including ~$8.2M in external incentives, against ~10.9% annualized emissions. October 21 is a key MetaDEX03 launch date, but organic volume remains unproven. Uniswap remains the preferred long-term holding, 60% versus 40% for AERO. x.com
Uniswap should keep outperforming Aerodrome into Aerodrome's mainnet launch because Uniswap is playing to win while Aerodrome's team is distracted. UNI has risen steadily since its fee switch, while Aerodrome, more than halfway through September, still has no mainnet or Robinhood launch after being sidetracked by a laptop and the Arc chain. Until Aerodrome ships something worthwhile, it should keep lagging after three months of severe underperformance. x.com x.com
Aerodrome's seven-chain upgrade gives sAERO holders a share of pool exchange revenue, strengthening the case for AERO. Launching tomorrow, holders will allocate rewards to pools and earn a pro rata share of their revenue, with pool rewards capped at a multiple of projected revenue. Dynamic Slipstream fees, MEV capture on supported L2s and Metaswaps across supported chains are also part of the upgrade. x.com
Stock trading could make Aerodrome's fees less volatile and expand its valuation multiple. On a longer-term fundamentals view, a rebound from drawdowns in majors and most alts offers over 2-3x; volume across chains, stocks and FX plus wallet share versus Uniswap offer over 3-5x, potentially much higher. Predictive liquidity, burns and partnerships add an innovation premium. Whatever happens before the merge, strong fundamentals point to a clearing rather than a sell-the-news event. x.com x.com … Show more
Meteora's weaker holder value capture despite higher DEX revenue than Raydium shows why fees alone may not reprice tokens. In 30 days Meteora earned ~$5.12M against Raydium's ~$4.48M, but returned ~$688K to holders against ~$2.69M. Their revenue multiples are ~3.1x and ~10x; Aerodrome's is ~8.3x. Meteora, Raydium and Aerodrome merit closer attention at current valuations if onchain activity recovers and token economics improve; unlocks, emissions and revenue durability still matter. x.com
Aerodrome Finance redistributes its revenue to veAERO holders, and coming 1:1-backed tokenized stocks with real dividends should bring more swaps and volume. Per @aixbt_agent, it does 38% of Uniswap's volume, generates $4.2M a month in revenue and trades at 8.5x price-to-sales versus Uniswap's 61.9x, with an Ethereum mainnet launch due before July 6. The chart looks constructive off support, with a likely move toward $0.74-0.75 around the mainnet release after a pit stop near $0.60. x.com
Aerodrome is one of the obvious direct winners if SEC Chair Paul Atkins grants an innovation exemption for tokenized assets, and its chart looks coiled to explode on any word. Rumors say the SEC may let tokenized securities trade solely through a transfer agent, without broker-dealer licenses or exchange rules. Beaten-down DeFi names like Aerodrome offer great token economics, revenue stories and a massive addressable market. x.com
Uniswap's protocol fees now have a specified path to UNI burns: fees flow into TokenJar and UNI is burned through Firepit to release those assets. Its multichain liquidity and $79.47B in 30-day DEX volume favor a larger 60% long-term weight versus AERO, despite a higher roughly 35.8x annualized revenue multiple. Further fee capture across chains and v4 pools could add growth, but protocol revenue is not net holder returns. x.com
Aerodrome and Avantis are among the undervalued, fundamentally mispriced exchange-listed tokens on Base that the market has mostly forgotten. Base's trading scene may be poor, but the chain is filled with underpriced listed alts, with more to come. Answering @rrigo_'s objection that no revenue flows to holders of Avantis and EDGE, both have buybacks and are expected to raise them at some point. x.com x.com
