Matthew Sigel
Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, Portfolio Manager of NODE ETF
Doncasters' earnings look relatively certain over the next three years, making the stock look quite cheap. Aerospace jitters center on JBLU and Elon Musk entering the blades and vanes market, but SpaceX might supply only its own needs and has no chance of external sales until 2031 or later. x.com
Doncasters' precision turbine-component capacity is a bottleneck even Elon Musk can't easily buy his way around. Per the WSJ, vacuum furnaces carry 2+ year lead times and key positions need 6-12 months of training, while Doncasters' technical staff average 10 years' tenure. SpaceX has advertised for these roles since February and only said it wanted to make high-spec blades and vanes; the jobs remain unfilled after about six months. The dip is a buy. x.com x.com
Applied Aerospace & Defense's record $1.13B backlog and sole-supplier role on 87% of its business make it much stronger than its chart looks. Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose 38.5%, and customers include SpaceX and Anduril. Jefferies named it one of its top small/mid-cap cyclical ideas with a Buy rating and $20 target, more than 80% above Wednesday's close. The falling-wedge trigger is $11.54. x.com
SpaceX's projected growth is challenging the earlier overvaluation case, though the reassessment is still in progress. A VJN.ai chart projects revenue 273.3% higher by Q4 2027, even as the company is valued at $2 trillion. x.com x.com
SpaceX looks set up for a big 2027 as its stock has handled earlier share unlocks well and the lockup schedule winds down. About 798 million shares become eligible for sale after the December 8 close; the June 2027 block is Musk's, and he is not selling. Other extended-investor tranches continue through 2027. x.com
Alphabet's businesses beyond search are why it will lead the real AI boom. Google Cloud, DeepMind and Waymo broaden its reach, and its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $85 billion. Fear emerging as the shares fall is an opportunity; a decline toward the buy zone is welcome, even as Q3 capex has taken a large hit out of free cash flow. x.com x.com x.com x.com
SpaceX remains a bearish call even as Elon Musk says he sees a path to it being worth orders of magnitude more than the current Earth economy. x.com
SpaceX's growth story does not hold up, and Musk's guess of $3.5 trillion of revenue around 2033, reported by @cfromhertz, is laughable. Orbital data centers are fundamentally flawed; Starlink is inferior to AST SpaceMobile's full-speed direct-to-cell broadband with 60 carrier partners; and its launch business faces competition from Blue Origin and Rocket Lab. x.com
SpaceX is not yet a buy; based on its dilution schedule and revenue growth, $60-80 is the higher-timeframe buy zone. A combination of SpaceX and Tesla looks inevitable, and SpaceX would be the better one to hold if it happens. x.com x.com
Howmet Aerospace is an obvious short because its valuation is insane for a cyclical industrial. Its oligopoly in turbine blades, where only three companies can produce at scale, is already well known and priced in at about 100x free cash flow. Even a bull case implies only a 2.7% free cash flow yield on 2030 numbers, far less attractive than Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia or Salesforce. x.com x.com
SpaceX's ambitious growth estimates rest on the largest satellite deployment ever seen, which could move connectivity from 4G and 5G to satellite data, plus space travel, third-party launches, government contracts and xAI. They are only estimates and the company has to deliver, but it has the cash not to run out of fuel midway. The key from here is scaling up its newer businesses that lose money today. x.com x.com
SpaceX shares may simply hover here, as lockup expirations look mostly priced in after relentless daily selling. Its post-IPO chart looks awfully similar to Tesla's. A sharp move back to all-time highs isn't expected, but a bounce is possible. x.com
