Serenity
AI & Semiconductor Supply-Chain Researcher, Trader
The dip in Micron, Intel and TSMC is a clear buying opportunity because it was driven by baseless talk of three rate hikes, not new macroeconomic data, which arrives Thursday. If institutions believed the BofA sell-side call for three hikes, they would profit from it in CME and prediction markets, which still price a 74% chance of no July hike. x.comÂ
QQQ's remaining earnings, macro and election hurdles set up one more dip to punish late chasers. The index looks good and is pricing in some good news today, but Amazon, Intel and SanDisk earnings plus PCE and GDP arrive tomorrow, followed by AMD earnings and elections Tuesday. Expect one more, probably modest, dip Wednesday or Thursday next week before November's upward seasonality takes effect. x.comÂ
Trump is not going to let Chinese memory chips become serious competitors in the US and West. That makes dips on news out of China a buying opportunity for memory stocks. DRAM fell about 10% in five days, SK hynix over 10% in Korea, Samsung about 7%, and Micron around 5%. RetiringAt54 says CXMT has never mass-produced HBM; this sell-off looks crazy. x.com x.comÂ
Buyers rushing into Micron's gap-down open show fear is still too limited for a sustainable low. They bought hand over fist, while the equity put/call ratio stood at 0.75; significantly more pain and fear are needed. x.com x.comÂ
Memory stocks are worth buying on every major dip because AI hardware infrastructure spending is not slowing down, per Bank of America's upgrade of Micron and memory. BofA said the market is underestimating Micron and called it time to buy. Sandisk ranks first and Micron second, and buying major dips in memory should make investors rich over time. x.comÂ
The Nasdaq 100's 3% premarket drop looks like a shakeout, not a crash. Fed rate hike signals are already priced in, with Micron earnings on Wednesday and PCE data on Thursday as the next tests. x.comÂ
Micron's indecision after a 40% rally off the low suggests short-term speculators may be exhausted. Despite unprecedented institutional buying and a reclaim of its VPOC and AVWAP, the stock is not acting strong, mirroring the bearish semiconductor ETF setup earlier in the week, and it faces monthly resistance. A $90M bearish risk reversal on the October 16 $980 strike, later added to by $20M, reads as a hedge. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Micron's structural data-center memory shortage thesis remains intact through 2027-28, so the recent selloff is consumer and PC inventory noise. Morgan Stanley channel checks show DRAM prices up 25% quarter over quarter in Q3, driven purely by data-center demand. Every drawdown in memory stocks this cycle has been a tactical entry. x.comÂ
Micron's drop after a blowout earnings report is just a rest stop, not a verdict on the AI trade. The stock ran hard into earnings, gapped up a few days earlier and is up over 350% in the past year. If anything, the results confirm that demand remains insatiable. x.comÂ
Micron faces a 'gravity' setup that will be very hard to break without forecasts and earnings beating expectations by 100%. During the dotcom bubble, Micron hit its 0.618 Fibonacci level as the yield curve uninverted, just as it is doing now: the 10-year/3-month spread is +117 bps, the 30-year yield is nearing 6.0%, HYG has broken its 50-period moving average and LQD looks set to fall toward 2008 lows. x.com x.comÂ
Memory stocks such as Micron look undervalued even if a slowdown happens, though recent news of de-speccing hardware, such as 4-high HBM, could weigh on sentiment for a while. x.comÂ
