Microsoft's AI spending is producing faster growth with better economics: Azure accelerated to 48% on a $100B+ base while capex was $39.4B, below expectations. Management then guided Azure to 49-50% and said demand still exceeds supply, ending the debate over whether AI investment is paying off. Overweight, $625 target. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Microsoft's Copilot could win in enterprise AI long term because it runs natively in Microsoft 365, where enterprise work already happens, with only about 30 million of some 450 million paid M365 seats on it so far. Microsoft guided above consensus, and Azure growth improved from 39% to 43%, with 45% guided. Value is shifting from models to infrastructure like public clouds. OpenAI, 27% owned by Microsoft, is the biggest concern, which is partly why Microsoft is exploring open-source models. … Show more

Microsoft is a great business but still an expensive bet at $385, because heavy AI capex is eroding free cash flow. Capex was revised to $190B for the year, $43B above expectations, and free cash flow fell to $15.8B. Revenue grew 18% to $82.9B, operating income 20%, Azure 40% and AI run rate reached $37B, with a 47% operating margin. The average analyst target of $560 implies 45% upside only if the AI spending converts on schedule. x.com 

Microsoft's hold on enterprise software and the cloud running AI makes it one of tech's best positions to own. Fiscal Q1 revenue rose 19% on Azure and the AI stack, while operating income rose 21% and net income 32%. Grade: A. x.com 

Microsoft's salesforce and governed platform unlock AI spending at conservative firms. Faster enterprise than consumer AI adoption makes it effectively the only pure play. M365 Commercial may top 20% growth next quarter, sooner than expected on tonight's guide; GitHub resegmentation helps, but it should do so this year anyway. Azure and M365, two-thirds of revenue, should grow above 50% and 20% and may accelerate. $24-25 CY27 EPS remains achievable, implying under 22x forward earnings. x.com  … Show more

Microsoft is getting outworked as an infrastructure company. Its 40% Azure growth came entirely from OpenAI, which now runs on other clouds, while Anthropic runs on Google and Amazon. Amazon has Trainium, which Anthropic uses heavily, and Google has TPUs; Microsoft has no equivalent. Agentic software making Office less useful is a smaller part of the bear case. x.com 

Microsoft's faster Azure growth on less capital spending than feared is the mix investors wanted from Big Tech. Azure brought in $33.2 billion last quarter, up 48%, its third consecutive quarter of accelerating growth; capex was $45.2 billion versus $50.8 billion expected. x.com 

Microsoft's AI capex is paying off, with accelerating cloud growth at enormous scale. Revenue rose 18% to $90.0B and Azure grew 43% versus 40% expected, topping $100B for the year, while Copilot passed 30M paid seats and commercial RPO rose 84% to $678B. Nearly 90% of cloud revenue comes from customers outside frontier labs, undercutting the circularity critique, and capex guidance stayed flat. EPS included a $3.2B gain on its Anthropic stake. x.com  x.com 

Microsoft's Azure has little chance against Google Cloud and AWS because the AI infrastructure race is becoming a hardware race. Amazon has Trainium and Google has TPUs, while Microsoft is still supply-constrained, so rivals can scale faster and cheaper. @DJ1P2 counters that enterprise integration, hybrid distribution and software lock-in keep Azure a dominant AI powerhouse, still growing 40%. x.com  x.com 

Microsoft's 50% Azure growth and prospect of positive cash flow in 2027 make the stock look bulletproof. Headcount cuts, lower Anthropic spend, a better Copilot routed to cheaper tokens, and coming proprietary chips and model usage add to the case. It should get Apple's multiple plus recognition for cybersecurity. x.com  x.com