Oliver | MMMT Wealth
Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Mining stocks such as Hecla are undervalued and more exciting than the popular optics, memory and packaging trades, because most miners have profit margins about 1.5-2x those of leading tech players. Hecla sits at +42% in 2026 against about 25% for Lumentum. This is not bearish on tech, but investors without miner exposure may soon wish they had it. x.com
Lumentum requires paying up heavily for a company that is not yet making money. Revenue grew 109% year over year, but it trades at about 25 times annualized sales, and it is growing less than memory makers at ten times their valuation. @ZeekTyt cites Lumentum's CEO expecting to supply only about 30% of requested laser demand as CPO and NPO ramp in 2027, with balance around 2029-30. x.com x.com
Lumentum warrants caution even if its beat is huge, because at 63x earnings it is ten times richer than Micron at 6x while both benefit from the same trends. Consensus expects $810M revenue and $2.27 EPS this quarter, then $918M and $2.68 next quarter. x.com
Lumentum's 49x free cash flow will look like an obvious bargain as very strong demand for its products turns into rapidly expanding free cash flow. The near-term fear that AI must pace the frontier is just a narrative. Unlike Applied Optoelectronics, which still burns meaningful cash and must raise capital from time to time, Lumentum is mature and no longer needs outside capital. The only question is how long the market takes to recognize it. x.com x.com
Lumentum supplies optical components inside every AI data center, and that demand remains relentless. x.com
Lumentum's breakout to a record weekly close, up 15.3% and erasing five months of chop in one week, is backed by revenue growing 109% year over year rather than hype. x.com
Lumentum's market cap wants to be much bigger because the data center infrastructure business is getting much bigger. Technically, a daily cup-and-handle breakout targets $900 or a bit higher, with a strong weekly candle taking out prior highs and a fresh bullish MACD crossover. The main worry is a heavily overbought weekly RSI. x.com
Strong-growing chipmakers on lower forward multiples can deliver great returns: Micron at about 12x forward earnings, Lumentum at 18x, Marvell at 22x, NVIDIA at 23x and Broadcom at 25x. Peers such as Arm at 55x, Intel at 48x and AMD at 38x trade far higher. x.com
Lumentum's CEO said at Deutsche Bank's tech conference that it can earn $40-plus of EPS in FY2028 after a huge uptick in its order book. That is nearly 5x the $8.67 earned in FY2026 within two years, and well above the sell side's $33 FY2028 estimate, so the stock should have risen around 10% on it. x.com
Seven Lumentum directors buying over $1.1M of shares signals insider confidence in its role in the AI buildout. Lumentum's optical and photonic technologies are used in high-speed networks and data centers, positioning it directly in AI infrastructure beyond GPUs. NVIDIA has also invested $2 billion in Lumentum, and photonics looks like the next leg of the buildout. x.com x.com x.com
Wheaton Precious Metals is UBS's clearest buy in a mining sell-off driven by the dollar and rates rather than fundamentals. Per UBS, gold, copper and mining stocks fell more than 20% as a stronger dollar and higher rate expectations overwhelmed the safe-haven bid. UBS also points to Wheaton's 70% volume growth path to 2030 and a 30% discount to its five-year EV/EBITDA. x.com
