Whole Mars Catalog
Tesla & Autonomous-Driving Publisher
Tesla's growing Cybercab registrations are bringing its Texas robotaxi fleet close to Waymo's registered fleet. Per @fsd_database, 81 new Cybercabs brought Tesla to 544 Cybercabs in a 1,051-vehicle Texas fleet, putting Cybercabs ahead of Model Ys statewide. Tesla's registered fleet is now 87% of Waymo's in Texas. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Reuters
Global News Agency
"We're trying to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of this year, 2026," he said. "As we start small this year, and we learn ... about delivery and ownership and fleet management of autonomous vehicles in customer hands, we'll continue to scale that."...The vehicle, however, will mainly be Tesla owned and used for its ride-hailing service, Musk said. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedMoravy's customer-delivery plan advances the owner-network path, while Musk's expectation that Cybercabs will mainly be Tesla-owned points to a higher owned-fleet share than the base case's 10% mix.
Earnings Whispers
Financial research and data service, Publisher of earnings expectations, investor sentiment, guidance, and research
More than 75% of North American deliveries signed up for paid FSD at delivery; paid customers have reached 1.7 million...people are walking into showrooms asking for an “FSD drive,” not a Model 3, Model Y, or Cybertruck. x.com
AlvaSupportsThe reported 1.7 million paid FSD customers strengthens the supervised-subscription income path underlying the thesis's bear case.
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Tesla is upping its spending to support the scaling of newer products, including robotaxis and Optimus robots. The company raised its capital expenditure outlook for the current year to $20 billion, Finance Chief Vaibhav Taneja says on a call with analysts. ... Over the next few years, CapEx will go toward expanding its robotaxi fleet, increasing production capacity for Optimus, installing new manufacturing space for solar energy, buying additional computing infrastructure and building a semiconductor fab, Taneja says. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsTaneja's reported plan to fund robotaxi fleet expansion supports the network-scaling assumption behind the 2035 revenue and contribution case.
First Squawk
Financial Audio News Service
TESLA EXEC SAYS THE COMPANY IS LAUNCHING CYBERCABS IN DALLAS NEXT MONTH AND IS TRYING TO GET CYBERCABS TO CUSTOMERS BY THE END OF THIS YEAR, ADDING IT EXPECTS AROUND Q2 NEXT YEAR TO TURN ON SOME CUSTOMER CARS TO BE PART OF THE ROBOTAXI FLEET x.com
AlvaSupportsThe reported plan to add some customer cars to the robotaxi fleet around Q2 next year supports the owner-network income path in the base case; the timing remains Tesla's expectation.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Tesla noted in its third-quarter earnings report that more than 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America include subscriptions to Full Self-Driving (Supervised), a record number...The company also said that cumulative unsupervised Robotaxi miles grew eightfold quarter over quarter, and that Tesla began rolling out its Cybercab in its Austin Robotaxi fleet in September. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedThe reported 75% FSD subscription rate supports recurring supervised-FSD monetization, while eightfold growth in unsupervised miles and Cybercab deployment support progress toward the thesis's robotaxi network revenue upside.Reuters
Global News Agency
Tesla said earlier this month that its Cybercab fleet in Austin had grown from fewer than 40 vehicles to more than 300 in about a month, with Dallas next. It launched unsupervised robotaxi rides in Miami, Orlando and Tampa in July, after Dallas and Houston in April. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsThe reported fleet growth and expansion of unsupervised rides support the network-scale assumption behind the thesis's robotaxi revenue and contribution estimates.
Ashok Elluswamy
Vice President of AI Software at Tesla
Till date, Robotaxi has driven a total of 3.3 million miles autonomously, and has had zero injuries nor airbag deployments. If the same number of miles were to be manually driven, we should expect roughly 9 injuries to the occupants or other pedestrians and 4 airbag deployments on average. x.com
AlvaSupportsThe reported safety record strengthens the case that autonomous rides can support the modeled network revenue, though the comparison with manual driving is an estimate.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Tesla launched an AI-trained robo-taxi service in June 2025 in Austin, Texas, but scaling the business has been slow, with a handful of cars in a few cities. Investors would like to know when robo-taxis will be ready to expand and contribute to bottom-line profits. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesThe report says robotaxi scaling remains slow and the timing of profit contribution is unclear, weakening the thesis's assumption that the network can drive substantial revenue and contribution by 2035.
Walter Bloomberg
Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg
Tesla’s latest SEC filing fuels merger speculation, revealing SpaceX board ties and change-of-control provisions. Kalshi now prices a 67% chance of a merger before February 2027, up from roughly 30% earlier this month. x.com
AlvaSupportsThe reported filing details and rising Kalshi odds support the possibility of a SpaceX combination, but the merger remains speculative and its terms and value to Tesla are unestablished.
Sameer Dholakia
Growth Partner at Bessemer Venture Partners, Former CEO of SendGrid
Just like Tesla and Elon's got it for his FSD on his cars, I think Waymo has the opportunity to do that for every other OEM on the planet. ... But when you take that same technology and capability and apply it to personal car ownership and then apply it to trucking and then apply it to logistics, Waymo's gonna be an extraordinary, I think, a trillion dollar business. Easy. traffic.libsyn.com
AlvaChallengesDholakia's forecast that Waymo could supply autonomy to other automakers and expand beyond ride-hailing adds competitive risk to Tesla's autonomy upside scenarios; those expansions are not Waymo's near-term focus.
Jason Calacanis
LAUNCH founder and early-stage startup investor
[Replying to @quasi_mortal: "Does TSLA not eat Uber?"] No ... Tesla is 40% and wins AV gold ... uber and 30 partners gets silver at 35% market share x.com
AlvaMixedA projected 40% AV share strengthens the Robotaxi upside case, while a projected 35% share for Uber and its partners points to substantial competition.
Martin Casado
General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz leading its infrastructure practice
Uber I go back and forth on. In the end, I think it really just had a capital and scale effect since the riders ended up not being loyal. And having more of either didn't have a long term notable advantage. x.com
AlvaChallengesThis weakens the case that capital and scale would by themselves create a durable Robotaxi advantage: Casado says Uber's riders were not loyal and that greater capital or scale lacked a notable long-term advantage.
Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX
The only things that will scale to incredible size (K2 and beyond) economically are super intelligence, robots, solar power and mass to space. ... And, of course, if you have the first two, the rest will follow. x.com
AlvaSupportsThis supports the thesis’s AI and robotics optionality, with Musk arguing that superintelligence and robots could enable much larger-scale economic activity. It is his view, not evidence that Tesla can achieve that scale or capture its value.Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX
Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value. x.com
AlvaSupportsMusk expects autonomy and robotics to dominate Tesla’s future value, reinforcing the thesis’s emphasis on those businesses as its main long-term upside.
David Welch
Bloomberg Detroit bureau chief covering the auto industry
There are a lot of EVs out there. ... there is variety in the market in the big segments where most consumers shop, which is crossover SUVs and luxury SUVs that are electric. ... the vehicles that are there just don't sell all that well. I think how people are reacting to gasoline prices in the U.S. is they're buying hybrids, which is why I've seen Toyota and Hyundai sales do so well. Not even plug-in hybrids, just your basic hybrid that doesn't require any charging. podtrac.com
AlvaChallengesWelch's view that available US EVs sell poorly despite broad choice, while buyers favor conventional hybrids, weakens the case for sustained Tesla vehicle demand beyond a near-term rebound.Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX
Tesla supervised self-driving approved in Slovakia 🇸🇰 x.com
AlvaSupportsApproval in Slovakia advances the regulatory path for broader supervised FSD adoption, one condition of the thesis’s longer-term upside.