Rihard Jarc
Co-Founder & CIO of New Era Funds, AI/Cloud/Semiconductor Research
Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet's rapid cloud growth and expanding margins will eventually be too large for the market to ignore. These multi-hundred-billion-dollar businesses were expected to post cloud growth of 40%, 50% or even over 90% year over year; Azure has now grown 48% in constant currency and Google Cloud 103%. Google Cloud's operating margin rose to 36.22% from 35.6% last quarter and 23.7% a year ago. Amazon's result remains an expectation. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet's cloud revenue should keep accelerating as their low-paying long-term compute contracts roll off and reprice at higher spot rates over coming months and years, if demand stays this high. Ben Horowitz said Amazon's CEO told him compute was sold out past 2028, perhaps through year-end 2028. New data centers take time to build, and cheaper-token models still use similar compute. Worsening neocloud financing would tighten compute and restore hyperscalers' oligopoly. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Accelerating Azure and AWS growth shows hyperscaler buildout and monetization have not slowed. Microsoft reported 48% Azure growth and guided to 49-50%; Amazon expects AWS growth above 40% in 2027 and 2028, positive for the infrastructure trade. Amazon's growth is more capital intensive, with deeply negative free cash flow projected, though AWS margins remain healthy. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Fast peer-cloud growth makes a bullish Amazon earnings view hard to resist. Azure grew 48% and Google Cloud 103%; the forecast is for 42%+ AWS growth. AWS is expected to grow over 40% annually over the next two years, so selling Amazon here risks missing that growth. x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet's AI Mode monetizes less effectively than traditional Search, potentially threatening its Search business. AI drove the fastest Search query growth in five years, yet Search revenue growth slowed to 12%; defending Search makes even greater AI investment necessary, not optional. Google Cloud grew 103% year over year to a $123 billion annual run rate. The report could not have been better for the AI infrastructure trade, but its risks are bearish for Alphabet's stock. x.comÂ
Alphabet's business is bigger and more profitable across the board, while its stock is back at its March war-scare low. That makes it hard not to pour all future earnings into the stock. Quarterly revenue rose from $110B to $128B; Google Cloud growth accelerated from 63% to 103%, with $30.7B in quarterly revenue, an operating margin around 36% and profit more than tripling in a year. Search queries are growing at their fastest pace in five years. x.comÂ
Google Cloud's accelerating growth positions it to lead the AI cloud market, strengthening Alphabet beyond Search. It may pass Azure next quarter, then AWS, rising from #3 to #1 in 18-24 months. Selling its Anthropic stake could fund 12-18 months of capex and buybacks, but moving roughly $300B at market price without harming their TPU and Cloud partnership is unlikely. Alphabet is cheaper than Anthropic on sales or earnings multiples; the market likely expects a 2027 capital raise. x.com x.com … Show more
Slower Google Search growth adds to doubts about paying a premium for Alphabet. Search revenue rose 12% year over year to $63.4 billion in Q3 2026, down from 17% the prior quarter and 19% two quarters earlier; even that 19% figure did not pass the smell test. Google remains a great company, but its stock would be worth buying at a lower price. x.com x.comÂ
Microsoft's faster Azure growth on less capital spending than feared is the mix investors wanted from Big Tech. Azure brought in $33.2 billion last quarter, up 48%, its third consecutive quarter of accelerating growth; capex was $45.2 billion versus $50.8 billion expected. x.comÂ
Microsoft's AI spending is producing faster growth with better economics: Azure accelerated to 48% on a $100B+ base while capex was $39.4B, below expectations. Management then guided Azure to 49-50% and said demand still exceeds supply, ending the debate over whether AI investment is paying off. Overweight, $625 target. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AI answers cost Alphabet more to serve than traditional search results, adding a bigger bill to the risk of fewer ad clicks. Higher prices per click could offset some lost clicks, but growing capex has pushed free cash flow negative; the 2027 spending concern is not going away. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet's rapid cloud growth and diverse profit sources make it a long-term buy below 20x forward earnings. Cloud grew 103% this quarter, despite short-term fears about search and heavy spending. x.comÂ
