CK Capital
Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research
Intuitive Surgical's surgical-robot moat is sturdier than the fear that sent it down about a third this year. The worry is that Medtronic and J&J will finally break its monopoly; maybe eventually, but surgeons train on its system for years and hospitals build workflows around it, so switching is hard. Thousands of placed systems keep generating recurring revenue for years. It's also a genuinely different bet from rates or AI spending. x.comÂ
Intuitive Surgical sits at multi-year-low forward valuations, at times below its 2022 trough and late-2010s lows over the last six quarters, though cheap can get cheaper, as it did after earnings. The concern with higher-cost exposure is China, not competition from J&J's Ottava or Medtronic's Hugo. The stock is tricky to read through sector correlation because it straddles medical devices, the Nasdaq 100 and momentum. x.comÂ
Intuitive Surgical's share repurchases add capital return to its case as one of the highest-quality compounders in medical robotics. It bought back $4.45B of shares in the first nine months of 2026, including $2.94B in Q3, while kicking off an early Stage 2 uptrend after reclaiming its 200-day SMA. x.comÂ
Intuitive Surgical's valuation has become much more reasonable but is still a little too expensive with growth slowing. At its highs it traded at about 18x next-twelve-month revenue, which was nonsense. x.comÂ
Intuitive Surgical has fallen about 34% from its high and trades at 35x forward earnings, a drawdown that puts it on a list of names alongside Kinsale Capital. x.comÂ
Intuitive Surgical is a high-quality business near its 200-week moving average, the entry point Charlie Munger said would beat the S&P 500 by a wide margin over time. At the cutting edge of robotics and soon AI in healthcare, with no competition, very high barriers to entry and huge switching costs, it deserves a premium. At 34x forward earnings it is expensive but tolerable; about 30x is close to fair value, 25x is cheap and 20x a slam dunk. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Intuitive Surgical is a great company, but 13-15% growth will probably bring the stock under pressure. x.comÂ
Intuitive Surgical's 40% year-to-date drop is extremely disrespectful to one of the best businesses in the world, with revenue growing 19%. A model assuming 14% revenue CAGR, a 33% 2031 margin, a 38x P/E and 1% yearly buybacks gives a $487 fair value and a $535 one-year target, about 49% upside from $360. It is too far ahead of competitors, Chinese robots are unlikely to disrupt Western markets, and about 40x is fair, half the multiple of five years ago. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Intuitive Surgical ranks eighth on a list of stocks, following Microsoft. x.comÂ
Intuitive Surgical is worth 30 times earnings at most, below where it trades. Judged purely on its financials, without knowing what the company does, even 30 times would be too high. x.comÂ
Intuitive Surgical controls over 80% of installed soft-tissue surgical robots worldwide, and every da Vinci procedure consumes proprietary instruments only it sells. The system is the razor and the tools are the blades, so procedure volume compounds annuity revenue from an installed base hospitals already paid for. At $441.58, forward EPS of $11.79 at 40-50x implies $470-590 over three years if procedure growth holds; pullbacks are buying opportunities. x.comÂ
