Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Bitcoin's resilience around $80k through the Fed decision leaves the $87.4k monthly-close bet intact if that floor holds, despite the missed $87k squeeze. The Fed held rates, two voters wanted a hike, and a December hike is now about 85% priced; BTC briefly reached $81.2k before giving it back. The October low is $79.2k; losing $80k would put $76k in play. x.com 

The Fed's continuing inflation focus and prospect of expensive money for longer are eroding Bitcoin's initial relief from the rate hold. At the 3.75%-4.00% hold, two officials voted to hike; Warsh left further tightening open but did not commit to a December hike. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF drew $136M yesterday, its third straight inflow session, showing buyers are still present. x.com  x.com  x.com 

A hawkish Fed surprise could briefly pressure Bitcoin, but any dip remains a chance to accumulate. Kalshi odds of a rate hike ticked up before Bitcoin weakened, and odds of a dissenting vote spiked ahead of FOMC; dissents are usually hawkish. Expect more red just after the announcement only if that signal materializes. x.com 

Bitcoin and ether’s resilience despite months of speculative capital being disintegrated may be a tell. They are the investments to hold or add, not trade. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's rebound faces constrained upside from dealer hedging and weak US spot demand. Seventy percent of dealer gamma sits at $75,000-$82,000 ahead of Friday's $11B options expiry; the Coinbase premium had no positive days in October and an $83,000 fakeout keeps traders defensive. The Fed hold spurred relief, ETFs added $110.34M and $176M, and record US debt drives long-term accumulation. A hot PCE print would raise December hike odds and pressure Bitcoin through higher yields. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's resilient spot ETF holders support a tentative June-bottom call. Holdings fell only 11% while Bitcoin fell 53%, its shallowest bear market versus 77% and 84% in the last two; ETFs have since added 87,000 BTC. The bounce stayed strong amid higher yields. Galaxy Research says the bear market ended in June, citing less long-term-holder selling and five weekly closes above the 50-week average; it would reconsider on a weekly close below that average, near $76,540. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Economic projections for falling inflation and rising unemployment leave December as the only window for another Fed hike, exposing long-dated Treasuries to more selling as yields rebound. Treasury buying has cooled yields ahead of the midterms, but yields should rise again with stocks and crypto through year-end. The subsequent liquidity shift should bring bearish volatility at first; then TLT should break above 81-82 as the Fed turns to cuts of at least 50 basis points by March 2027. x.com 

Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.com 

Bitcoin may fake a break below 75,600, recover, and keep rising into the September 15 final ruling on the Clarity crypto bill and the September 16 Fed meeting before selling off on the news. Rate-hike expectations have risen but should ease once the next two weeks of data arrive. Ether likely repeats last May-July: a pullback, a fake breakout to 2,700, a sell-the-news drop to 2,100 after the 15th and 16th, then further gains, with bitcoin following the same pattern. x.com