Daniel
Self-Directed Investor, YouTube Investing Creator
Nebius could reach $3,000 a share by 2030 as AI compute economics improve and it deploys at least 5 GW of capacity. Revenue per MW has risen from about $10 million to $20-25 million on long-term contracts and $40-50 million short-term; its first auction cleared 15% above its prior high. At $25 million per MW, 5 GW yields $125 billion of revenue, and a 25% net margin $31.25 billion. With 1.5-2 GW added yearly, 30x earnings and about 25% dilution imply roughly $3,000. x.comÂ
Nebius's capacity auctions let it find the maximum price per MW while demand far exceeds supply, which could mean tens of billions in extra revenue as it scales toward 5+ GW. In Q2 it became the first cloud provider to auction AI capacity, and Blackwell capacity cleared 15% above its highest previous price. Each price step, from about $10-15M per MW for bare metal to $20-25M on longer deals and $40-50M short term, has still found demand. x.comÂ
Nebius's already-raised cash and expected customer prepayments should buffer its 2027 plans against a short-term debt-market freeze. Rising GPU rental prices could put new deals at $35m+/MW annually, up from last quarter's $20m-$25m, reducing estimated payback from 22 months to around a year. If Nebius deploys 1 GW next year at a one-year payback, equity value creation could be tremendous. x.comÂ
Nebius's projected growth makes its simplified valuation around $135 very interesting. Estimates are easily around $13 billion in 2027 and $27 billion in 2028, with roughly 7x 2027 EV/EBITDA at that share price. Company-specific factors also appeal. x.comÂ
Nebius's recently signed higher-margin deals are predominantly with pre-revenue neolabs, making it aggressive to project a few small, short-term contracts' economics across all available capacity for years. Short-term economics are very attractive now, and Nebius management has better insight into demand, but assuming all these customers renew at similar or better terms indefinitely seems unrealistic. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Nebius looks cheaper against a year of stronger execution, leaving room for its shares to rise. EV/current ARR fell from 57x to 14x as quarterly revenue rose from $105M to $582M and adjusted EBITDA moved from -$21M to +$236M. The 5GW figure is a year-end contracted-power target, not live capacity. Per Polymarket, Dutch government AI plans could favor Amsterdam-based Nebius. Delivery still needs capital and power; Nebius borrows at about half CoreWeave's cost and gets customer prepayments. x.com … Show more
Nebius's new financing addresses funding fears around its compute buildout. Its $3.5B Citi facility funds data centers and GPUs, and over $40B of long-term contracts with investment-grade customers offers more borrowing capacity. Bank of America says funding is covered through 2026 and reiterates Buy and a $310 target, expecting the shares to double; it estimates about $18B of new capital for 1 GW in 2027, potentially less with customer prepayments. x.comÂ
SpaceX's planned tenfold neocloud expansion and tightening financing could pressure Nebius. Musk says debt markets have nearly shut for companies without substantial non-AI-data-center revenue, implying consolidation among the 200-plus neoclouds. Nebius looks less appealing than SpaceX, and picking a battle with Elon is not attractive. x.com x.comÂ
Nebius's $40B-plus customer commitments and funding resources make its growth seriously underappreciated, despite financing risk. Q2 revenue grew 454% to $582M; Microsoft and Meta contracts total $29.4B, with another potential $15B from Meta. Against roughly $5.7B of Q2 capex, Nebius had about $8B cash, expects over $9B in 2026 customer prepayments and subsequently raised about $5.75B in convertible notes. It is one of the more compelling long-term AI infrastructure opportunities right now. … Show more
Owning Nebius's Independence campus could underpin years of US growth by letting it coordinate power, cooling and GPU upgrades. Its four-building plan targets up to 1.2 GW over five to seven years, but ownership puts construction and financing risk on Nebius; returns require power, equipment and customers to arrive together. Utility supply, the off-site Blue Valley project and a possible on-site generation option are distinct plans, not operating compute. Current active IT MW was not verified. … Show more
Nebius's integrated AI cloud offers a substantial long-term opportunity beyond simply controlling powered land as training and inference demand expands. It builds data centers and GPU clusters and runs networking, storage and customer software; Microsoft and Meta have multi-year commitments. The correction after a 10x rise is unfolding, but deeper price targets have not been reached; the next 6-12 months could offer a more attractive entry than near the highs. x.comÂ
Nebius at 5x next year's sales will look like a clear bargain in hindsight if management executes anywhere close to plan, supporting a $300 target by end-2027. It is growing at absurd rates while customers increasingly help fund the infrastructure behind that growth. The past 90 days of volatility have been frustrating, but the opportunity remains very enticing. x.comÂ
