Jason Luongo
Growth-Stock Options Trader, LEAPS & Income Strategies
Ondas is scaling fast in autonomous drones and counter-drone systems. Q2 revenue hit a record $83.8 million, more than 13x a year earlier, and 2026 guidance is $525–550 million. Pro forma backlog is $757 million, it has captured over $240 million under the Army's $982 million loitering-munitions IDIQ, and in September it bought five more defense tech businesses. x.com
Ondas is scaling rapidly toward a $1B revenue run rate targeted by year end. Q2 revenue of $83.8M was more than 13x a year earlier, full-year guidance rose to $525-550M, and pro forma backlog is about $757M. The $876M DZYNE acquisition is expected to add over $300M of 2027 revenue, and Ondas targets company-wide adjusted EBITDA profitability in Q4 2027 with $1.4B of cash on hand. x.com
Ondas is the only clean name in the drone basket because its backlog gives real visibility, not a tariff narrative. Pro forma backlog of $757M covers the full-year guide 1.4x, cash is $1.4B, $240M+ of a $982M Army loitering-munitions IDIQ has become orders and $105M more was booked in Q3 before August 10. The risk is execution, since H1 revenue of about $134M against a $525-550M guide means H2 must roughly triple. That beats Red Cat's 16.1% gross margins facing a 25% component tariff. x.com
Ondas Holdings does not look too expensive for a company tied to the defense and drone supercycle with revenue growing nearly 1,000%. It has a $457 million backlog nearing $600 million after its $125 million Cyberhawk acquisition and recently raised its 2026 revenue target to $390 million, yet trades at about 8x EV to forward sales. Cyberhawk adds an inspection platform with 95% recurring revenue and a large real-world asset dataset. Risk-reward looks good as long as the market does not crash. … Show more
Ondas's share-funded acquisitions look very risky without a strong core business to make them work. It has raised $1.8B selling shares, yet roughly $1.4B sits in cash and short-term investments. One customer provides 55% of revenue, and $252M plus $742M in stock spent on acquisitions has not produced big revenue; continued raises and management pay add to the concern. x.com
Ondas' long-term opportunity extends beyond drones into growing counter-drone and unmanned ground vehicle markets. Broad industry estimates for these markets rise from $90.6B in 2025 to $210B by 2033, with counter-drone systems the fastest-growing segment at 26.8% annually. That total is neither Ondas revenue nor its own addressable market and may include overlap. Bullish on the company's future, but execution must earn conviction. x.com x.com
Ondas is building a full-stack autonomous defense platform as revenue scales rapidly. Q2 revenue hit a record $83.8M, up 67% quarter over quarter and 13x year over year, and full-year guidance was raised to $525-550M. Israel's Ministry of Defense selected it for next-generation Digital Bat attack drones, and it closed the $875.8M DZYNE deal. The stock is holding its 200 EMA in a falling wedge, with targets from 9.99 to 12.42; losing 8.50 support would change the view. x.com
Ondas's growth without margin discipline is a warning because it is so far from profitable: its EBITDA loss widened from $10.9M to $50.6M in one quarter. Revenue, orders and defense contracts are real, and guidance rose by $160M, yet the stock fell 8%. x.com
Ondas is shifting from drone hardware toward higher-margin AI software and data services, which supports a re-rating. Its Cyberhawk unit renewed and deepened an exclusive three-year deal with SSE for power-grid drone inspections, expanding into offshore wind via its iHawk platform. Ondas bought defense tech firms Insignito, Ottopia Defense and Caribou Labs, and raised 2026 revenue guidance to $525–550M. Even so, its forward P/S trades at a discount to defense-tech peers. x.com
Ondas's dilution-funded acquisitions could build a vertically integrated autonomy and defense contractor worth more than the sum of its parts. After its shares rose about tenfold since 2023, Ondas raised capital and bought 12 companies, and now holds more cash than its entire market cap when it started. Dilution is not inherently bad; what matters is buying IP, customers, talent and capacity that synergize. Integration is hard and execution risk is real, but done well it produces synergy. x.com
Ondas's business looks stronger after Q2, but the stock is a different story because expectations were already very high and profitability remains far away. Revenue of $83.8M rose 67% quarter over quarter, pro forma backlog reached about $757M with $105M more booked in Q3, and FY2026 guidance rose to $525-$550M from at least $390M. Yet EPS of -$0.19 missed badly and the adjusted EBITDA loss widened to about -$50.6M, and shares sold off despite the beat and raise. x.com
Ondas Holdings is assembling a defense prime in public while its chart pulls back. Eight acquisitions in twelve months form a full kill chain across sensing, counter-drone protection, strike and AI battle management, and Mistral brings direct US Army and Special Operations contract vehicles. Q1 revenue rose tenfold; guidance is at least $390m, heading toward about $525m with DZYNE, versus $50.7m last year. Backlog is $457m versus $68m at year-end, with $1.48bn in cash and no long-term debt. … Show more
