The Long Investor
Airline Captain & Investment Analyst, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Ethereum is a buy, stake and hold as institutions accumulate and supply tightens. Spot ETF holdings rose from 3% to 10% of supply in a year, treasury vehicles keep stacking, 30% of ETH is staked, exchange balances keep falling and fee burns offset issuance in busy periods. Most stablecoin and tokenized-asset activity routes through Ethereum and its L2s, and staking pays about 3%. Institutional tokenization will happen, perhaps outside the US first. The Wave 3 target is $9,200. x.comÂ
Ethereum's future does not depend on the Clarity Act, because people in Europe, Asia and Papua New Guinea are buying ETH with no idea what the act is. A US-only setback is like Airbnb being banned in one state's largest city, after which its shares bounced 120%. There is a world outside the US. x.com x.comÂ
ETH is undervalued because collateral and staking create demand L1 fees miss. Aave V3 has 2.2M WETH supplied and 1.75M borrowed on Ethereum. Yet Base reportedly paid Ethereum ~$15K for September data publishing versus $711K to the Optimism Collective, showing weak L1 capture. Absolute stablecoin growth matters more than share, but is not itself ETH demand. The case strengthens when activity creates sustained demand to hold, borrow against or stake ETH, or raises fee burn relative to issuance. … Show more
Ethereum is becoming the backbone of onchain finance, driving structural institutional demand, and lower prices are a gift. Institutions such as ETFs, corporates and reserves control about 10.7% of ETH supply, corporate treasuries 6%, and staking locks up 29-30%. Ethereum holds 55-56%+ of the tokenized real-world asset market and 74% of tokenized US Treasuries, with BlackRock, JPMorgan, PayPal and Deutsche Bank building on it. The weekly chart keeps making higher lows. x.comÂ
Ethereum faces slightly higher near-term selling risk as net inflows raise Binance's sellable ETH supply. Some 55,471 ETH entered and 47,596 left, net 7,875, though both flows have slowed. If inflows persist this week with ETF outflows and high US Treasury yields, pressure could grow around the Fed decision. Rising cumulative ETH 2.0 transactions bode well for network use, not direct demand or relief today. Losing $2,280-2,300 adds downside risk; recovery needs flow and price confirmation. x.comÂ
Ethereum's upside looks worth the bet because the payoff to its prior high is much larger than the downside, and buyers still respond to good news. There is roughly 16% down to $1,950 versus a little over 2x back to the prior all-time high. LIT caught a sharp bid around its US regulatory plans, and CHIP rallied 40% around a $1 million buyback; that response looks like a bull-market sign. x.comÂ
Ether's near-term recovery is lagging Bitcoin as spot Ether ETFs lost $149 million over Monday and Tuesday while Bitcoin funds gained $286 million. Ether remains below its weekend high and 365-day average; the multi-model signal is still Long on both, with three of four models agreeing on Ether versus four of four on Bitcoin. x.comÂ
Ethereum's strong ecosystem is not translating into enough ETH value capture to support significant appreciation unless that changes. The Ethereum Foundation selling ETH again is frustrating; buybacks and stronger incentives for L2s to accumulate and buy back ETH could improve the token's economics. Fundstrat, which owns roughly 5% of the supply, has a huge opportunity to push for better value capture. x.com x.comÂ
Ethereum's growing stablecoin base contrasts with ether trading at roughly half its November 2021 price. The network holds $146 billion in stablecoins, up from $83 billion on November 10, 2021. x.comÂ
Bitmine's new Ethereum staking locks more supply and signals institutional conviction. It staked 159,728 ETH, worth about $390 million, on October 20-21, bringing total staked holdings to about 5.23 million ETH. The view is cautiously bullish, without chasing: a daily close above $2,500 could target the 30-day average at $2,579, while a drop below $2,380 signals renewed weakness. x.comÂ
Ethereum's ETF outflows look especially troubling relative to other major crypto assets. Weekly ETH ETF outflows of $320 million exceeded Bitcoin's $228 million and Solana's $25 million combined, per Ted Pillows. x.comÂ
Ethereum is seeing the most aggressive whale buying in history: whales have absorbed every one of the 2.7M ETH that smaller wallets sold since January. x.comÂ
