M Mohan
Private Equity at IncVangal, Former Microsoft Ventures Director
Meta's revenue growth and above-consensus Q4 guidance keep its growth case strong. Q3 revenue rose 26.07% to $64.601B versus $63.373B expected, and adjusted EPS of $7.40 beat the $5.74 estimate. Q4 revenue guidance is $73B-$76B; its $74.5B midpoint exceeds Wall Street's $73.736B estimate, signaling continued growth into the final quarter of 2026. Long Meta. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Meta's ad engine is still growing, and its higher AI spending comes with a stronger revenue outlook. Revenue was $64.6B versus $63.4B expected, with $63.1B in ads; the Q4 guide midpoint of $74.5B beat $73.7B expected. Meta raised only the capex floor to $135B, leaving the $145B ceiling unchanged. The roughly $10B legal charge depressed reported EPS, not ads. Overweight, $1,004 target with 41% upside. x.com x.comÂ
Meta's heavy spending raises questions about how it will earn a return even if its core business improves. Quarterly free cash flow fell from $13.2 billion in March 2026 to $1.7 billion in June and negative $1.2 billion in September. x.comÂ
Meta's earnings beat removes the immediate earnings risk from its bullish setup, with the 688 area holding on a closing basis. Q3 revenue was $64.6 billion, up 26%, and EPS of $3.83 beat estimates; Q4 revenue guidance is $73-76 billion. Wave 4 may have ended near 681; a close above the 9- and 21-day averages near 715 would confirm that count, with 755, 773 and 796 as targets. x.comÂ
Meta's third-quarter advertising and earnings beats, plus its fourth-quarter revenue outlook, should be viewed favorably by investors. Advertising revenue was $63.1B versus $61.8B expected and EPS was $3.83 versus $3.57; fourth-quarter revenue guidance is $73B-$76B versus $73.6B expected. The lower end of 2026 capex guidance rose to $135B, while the $145B upper end stayed unchanged. x.comÂ
Meta's cash generation turned negative in Q3, coinciding with the start of its share-price slide. It was Meta's first negative free-cash-flow quarter in more than a decade. A $25 billion share sale priced at $625 this week, and the shares are already below that price. x.comÂ
Meta's core advertising business is significantly outgrowing its biggest competitors even before factoring in the newer businesses it is building. Q3 ad revenue rose 26% year over year, versus 10.6% at Alphabet and 10.9% at Amazon. Back at 19x forward earnings, Meta is the most undervalued Magnificent Seven stock. x.com x.comÂ
Meta's valuation is compelling again because its operating-cash-flow multiple has fallen while revenue growth accelerated over the past year. It trades at 12x operating cash flow, close to 10x 2027 operating cash flow. Its unique position should make it one of the AI era's biggest winners, with Muse becoming its best asset in the long run. The equity raise's timing was unwelcome, but that is now behind it. x.comÂ
Meta's next-year earnings consensus of $34 a share makes a 30x forward multiple too optimistic unless it delivers a major surprise. The proliferation of $1,000 price targets also looks like a warning to get out. x.com x.comÂ
Meta's decade of revenue and operating cash flow growth makes it worth at least $2T. LTM revenue rose from $18B in 2015 to $242B, and operating cash flow from $10B to $133B. A $10B legal charge tied to the teenagers case drove the quarterly EPS miss; without it, EPS would have been $7.40. Quarterly free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over 10 years, raising the question of whether the investment will pay off. x.com x.com x.comÂ