Sam Badawi
Stock Analyst, Creator of Origins of Alpha & Quarterly Conviction
Amazon's AI business could earn margins and returns matching or beating AWS at the same stage, per Morgan Stanley, which sees a path for AWS to reach $1 trillion of revenue in 8-10 years. That could drive about $500 billion of company-wide EBIT and supports a $500 bull-case target by end-2027; the base case is $335. Compute capacity remains the biggest bottleneck, and Morgan Stanley estimates Amazon could add 6-8 GW in 2026-2027. x.comÂ
Amazon's AWS growth makes the earnings dip a buying opportunity. Sam Badawi says AWS grew 39% to $46 billion in the quarter; DudeWhoInvests says AWS is projected to grow more than 40% in 2027 and 2028. Buying the dip looks wise. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Amazon's AWS growth remains strong despite slight earnings misses. AWS revenue rose 39% year over year in Q3. Increased 2027 capex could still weigh on the shares in the short term, even if demand continues to rise. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Amazon's unusual long-term AWS guidance looks desperate and leaves its stock looking dead. @P_Remarks says Amazon normally avoids long-term guidance and speculates that its projection of over 40% AWS revenue growth in both 2027 and 2028 was a Hail Mary to offset a quarter weak relative to expectations. x.comÂ
Amazon's AWS growth still drives its valuation, making the post-earnings decline look temporary despite misses elsewhere. AWS grew 39% to $46 billion, above the $45.4 billion expected; Jassy sees growth above 40% in both 2027 and 2028. Earnings, advertising and Q4 sales guidance missed expectations, while trailing free cash flow was negative $42.4 billion. x.com x.comÂ
Amazon's record AI spending looks backed by AWS demand, despite pressure on near-term profit. AWS grew 39% to $46bn, and CEO Andy Jassy projects growth above 40% in both 2027 and 2028. Quarterly capex reached $77.3bn, almost $20bn above expectations; the Q4 profit guide missed and retail ads softened. AWS acceleration makes the drop worth buying. Overweight; $370 target. x.com x.comÂ
Amazon's weak retail growth has shaken the earlier buy case. Online-store sales rose just 2% year over year, and the retail numbers look so poor that it is no longer clear at what price the shares are a buy. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Amazon's accelerating AWS growth at high margins shows the strength of its moat, but returns on heavy capex remain unproven. AWS grew 39% to $46B, its fastest growth in nearly five years, at a 38.7% operating margin; Amazon posted record operating income. Online stores grew 2%, while ads grew 11%, down from 26% last quarter. Trailing free cash flow fell to -$42.4B as net capex reached $210.7B. Returns on about $220B of planned 2026 capex remain the open question, with free cash flow the test. … Show more
Amazon looks cheap against its growth and cash-generating businesses. At about 3.5 times trailing revenue and a roughly 20 trailing P/E, it has $776B in sales, AWS growing 37% year over year, plus advertising and marketplace cash engines. x.comÂ
Amazon's negative free cash flow and far-off AWS guidance add to its investment risk. Free cash flow is -$42 billion. True_yes_man describes Jassy extrapolating fourth-quarter AWS revenue at 40% growth for five years. That guide cannot be taken seriously; it resembles the Tesla and Nvidia playbook of projecting years ahead to support the market into the midterms, then recalibrating later. x.com x.comÂ
Fast peer-cloud growth makes a bullish Amazon earnings view hard to resist. Azure grew 48% and Google Cloud 103%; the forecast is for 42%+ AWS growth. AWS is expected to grow over 40% annually over the next two years, so selling Amazon here risks missing that growth. x.com x.comÂ