The Long Investor
Airline Captain & Investment Analyst, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Tesla could reach $800 if it executes on humanoid robots at scale, since it is now an AI software, hardware and robotics company rather than an EV maker. The stock has consolidated in a large ascending triangle since 2021, as the market waits to see whether Tesla can scale humanoids the way its 2020-21 run priced in its EV dominance. If anyone can do it, Elon Musk can. x.com
Matt Levine
Columnist at Bloomberg Opinion, Author of Money Stuff
Elon Musk can build a gigantic data center very quickly. He can scrape and claw his way to getting more NVIDIA chips than everyone else. ... One giant balance sheet lets you get cheap financing to build giant data centers, which is the thing you need for SpaceX, for Tesla, for XAI, for Twitter, for everything. podtrac.com
AlvaSupportsLevine argues that Musk's ability to secure chips and build data centers, combined with cheaper financing from a consolidated balance sheet, could strengthen the AI infrastructure behind Tesla's robotics ambitions.James A. Engle
podcast
Our belief is that cost curves favor EVs. In fact, when we bought Tesla, the Model Y was a significant premium to Toyota Corolla. And today, it's trading almost on top of it in terms of price. And they're more profitable on an operating basis. traffic.libsyn.com
AlvaSupportsEngle's account of lower Model Y pricing alongside stronger operating profitability supports Tesla's ability to improve manufacturing economics and fund its humanoid ambitions.
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
"Tesla gave them the blueprint," adds Levy. Chinese auto makers make gasoline, hybrid, and all-electric cars. But the industry has leapfrogged Western companies by focusing on technologically advanced hybrid and electric cars. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesChinese EV makers have used Tesla's technology blueprint to advance quickly, increasing competitive pressure on the EV business that funds Tesla's humanoid buildout.Jenny Johnson
podcast
I think your only risk there is you have a lot of key man risk with Elon. We all have to hope he stays healthy and can continue to innovate. anchor.fm
AlvaChallengesJohnson identifies Musk's health and continued innovation as a key-person risk, directly weakening the thesis's reliance on his ability to execute Tesla's humanoid scale-up.
Dean W. Ball
Head of Strategic Futures at OpenAI, Author of Hyperdimensional
"Yeah, people talk a lot about RSI as AI that does AI research. There's very little talk about self-replicating data centers, this idea that you can use AI to control robots and run fabs and build turbines or solar panels and build data centers. But I think we have that within grasp." x.com
AlvaSupportsBall argues AI-controlled robots could build fabs, power systems and data centers, a pathway that would reduce the physical bottlenecks to scaling Tesla's AI and robotics infrastructure.Connor Love
podcast
Anything in the physical world takes time. To set up a factory at a scale where really you either affect our power generation, or you affect our military systems, or you name it, you can't take a couple of engineers, throw them in front of a couple servers and computer screens and come up with an answer. Moving dirt, it is physically understanding a supply chain, like these things take years. mgln.ai
AlvaChallengesLove says factories and physical supply chains take years to build, directly challenging the thesis's expectation that Tesla can scale humanoids quickly enough to support an $800 valuation.
Bloomberg
Business and Financial Information and News Platform
President Donald Trump said he would hold off on imposing tariffs on imports of robotics, industrial machinery and related parts and components, instead directing officials to hold talks with trading partners on those goods x.com
AlvaSupportsTrump's decision to delay tariffs on robotics and related components removes a potential cost barrier for Tesla's humanoid supply chain while trade talks continue.Miles Arnone
podcast
The problem with robots is that they're attacking a pretty small part of the total production cost. It's largely the elimination of direct labor. And actually, most of the cost and most of the time involves everything around that, a lot of waste. ... So the reality is that bringing robots in might take a few percentage points off your total cost at a very high capital expense. media.transistor.fm
AlvaChallengesSmall savings on total manufacturing costs relative to robot capital expense could limit industrial customers' returns, challenging the demand and economics needed for Optimus to scale.
Reuters
Global News Agency
Unitree on Wednesday said third-quarter revenue rose 70% from a year earlier to 665 million yuan ($99.7 million) ... However, net profit attributable to shareholders fell 17.4%to 112.7 million yuan, below analyst's 224 million yuan forecast, as the company more than doubled research and development expenses. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedRapid revenue growth at a profitable robot maker strengthens the commercial case for robotics, while falling quarterly profit under heavier R&D spending highlights the cost of developing the capabilities Tesla needs for Optimus.
Walter Bloomberg
Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg
He sees an 80%–90% chance of a Tesla ($TSLA ) merger by 2027, potentially valuing Tesla above $500 per share. x.com
AlvaMixedIves assigns an 80%-90% chance to a SpaceX merger by 2027, potentially adding AI infrastructure to Tesla's robotics case, but his merger valuation above $500 remains well below $800.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
"The core business is demonstrating upward trends, reversing flattish growth in 2024-25," Levy added. "The auto business is on track to grow this year after two years of declines, and 2027 should see further upside, supported by demand spurred by FSD, as well as rising exports from [Tesla's Chinese plant] Giga Shanghai." tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsBarclays expects auto growth to resume through 2027 on FSD demand and Shanghai exports, strengthening the operating base that funds Tesla's humanoid plans.Reuters
Global News Agency
Latvia on Monday became the 10th European country to approve Tesla Assisted Driving (TAD) software, following on the heels of Slovakia's approval of the technology earlier this month. ... While the software smoothly handled congested highway driving and traffic merges, Marcek had to manually slam on the brakes when the car failed to slow down for a closed barrier. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedLatvia's approval makes ten European markets for Tesla's assisted-driving software, but a test requiring emergency driver braking highlights reliability work still needed for its autonomy business.Reuters
Global News Agency
OPERATIONSGXO LOGISTICS - CO AND AGILITY ROBOTICS EXPAND PARTNERSHIP FOR DIGIT ROBOT DEPLOYMENT IN NORTH CAROLINA AND ... TENNESSEEGXO LOGISTICS - DIGIT ROBOT DEPLOYMENTS AT GXO SITES TO BEGIN IN EARLY 2027 WITH DIGIT 4 tradingview.com
AlvaMixedGXO's expansion with Agility puts humanoids on a path to operational deployments in early 2027, supporting commercial demand while giving Tesla a rival customer-deployment benchmark.Reuters
Global News Agency
GAINSSAYS HUMANOID ROBOTICS INDUSTRY AT EARLY COMMERCIAL STAGE, TECH MATURITY AND DOWNSTREAM MARKET DEMAND UNCERTAIN tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesYushu warns that humanoid technology maturity and customer demand remain uncertain, challenging the assumption that Tesla can scale Optimus into a large commercial market soon.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
While MS's recent survey indicates a delay in commercial deployment, the bank thinks component demand could emerge faster, supported by more pilot projects as integrators rush to accumulate real-world data. "Suppliers could therefore benefit ahead of downstream integrators," MS says. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesMorgan Stanley's survey points to delayed commercial humanoid deployment and earlier gains for component suppliers than integrators, pushing out the timeline for Tesla to capture value from scaled Optimus sales.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Wheeled robots are likely to achieve meaningful industrial adoption sooner than bipedal humanoids, Morgan Stanley in a research note. ... "We continue to see potential for legbased robots in unstructured environments and high-value applications," it says. ... current reliability constraints may delay widespread deployment, MS adds. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesMorgan Stanley expects wheeled robots to reach meaningful factory and warehouse adoption ahead of bipedal humanoids because walking adds complexity and reliability risk, challenging Optimus's near-term industrial scale.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
MS estimates China humanoid shipments of 50,000 units in 2026, 100,000 in 2027, and 446,000 by 2030, driven by driven by integrators' efforts to scale deployments. MS notes several risks to further adoption of humanoid robots, including product reliability. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedMorgan Stanley forecasts substantial growth in Chinese humanoid shipments through 2030, but its modest near-term volumes and reliability concerns suggest Tesla's route to an EV-scale humanoid market may take years.The Twenty Minute VC (20VC)
Venture Capital Interview Podcast, Hosted by Harry Stebbings
Because the humanoids is so obviously so far off. ... I think we'll have working prototypes for some of these tasks in the next two to three years, and the market will emerge in five to seven years. traffic.libsyn.com
AlvaMixedRao expects task-specific prototypes in two to three years but a market only in five to seven, pushing meaningful humanoid commercialization beyond a near-term Tesla valuation catalyst.
Dr. Alexander Wissner-Gross
Founder and Chief Scientist of Physical Superintelligence, Co-host of Moonshots
It trades like a robot company, not like a car company. It would lose 10 times, 10x valuation drop if it traded like a normal car company, even with perfect execution of the cars. traffic.megaphone.fm
AlvaChallengesWissner-Gross argues Tesla already trades as a robotics company, challenging the idea that an $800 move can come simply from investors recognizing its pivot.
Brett Adcock
Founder of Figure
[Quoting @TheHumanoidLabs: "Brett Adcock says Figure is now printing 81 minutes of data every second, and every five days it prints an entire waking human lifetime. He also said Figure spent an estimated $8.1 million on data last week."] To scale data to these levels, we had to build a startup inside of a startup x.com
AlvaMixedFigure's reported data throughput and dedicated data operation set a concrete competitive benchmark for the training pipeline Tesla needs to scale Optimus.