Ashton Invests
Long-Term Equity Investor, Fundamental Stock Research
Fubo's thesis is broken: the merger has not delivered as hoped, management has not shown the leadership or transparency needed, and the path to sustainable cash flow does not look strong enough to justify holding. Too many questions remain unanswered with too little execution to keep giving the stock time just because it is down; Uber and Netflix offer higher conviction. x.comÂ
Fubo is becoming a much larger and financially healthier business, though the path will not be smooth and it remains a small speculative bet. The quarter was mixed: revenue reached $1.48B, North American paid subscribers hit a Q3 record of 5.75M, and the net loss narrowed to $25.7M from a $72M pro forma loss, while adjusted EBITDA fell to $19.1M. Management tightened its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to $90-$100M and still expects positive free cash flow from 2027. x.comÂ
Netflix's six straight botched earnings reports undermine its stock. Its co-CEOs should go; shares are at a two-year low and down 60% since its involvement in the Paramount deal and acquisition. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's slowing growth and weaker outlook make it unattractive for now. Revenue growth decelerated to 11.8%, U.S. TV viewing share fell 0.8 percentage points, advertising guidance was reduced 10%, and full-year free-cash-flow guidance was cut $500M, despite expanding operating margins and better subscriber retention. x.com x.comÂ
Fubo's subscriber engine and ad business are turning, but the top line still isn't growing. Subscribers grew 2%, the first growth since the Disney deal, a 275,000 World Cup swing from last year's June-quarter loss. June was the best ad month in years, before Disney's ad server shows up, and cash exceeds the 2029 converts. But pro forma revenue slipped 0.1%, a new S-8 adds about a quarter of the float, and breakeven Q4 guidance is a choice. Everything hangs on CEO Alisa Bowen's November update. … Show more
Skydance Paramount should probably be a ~$4 stock because, unlike Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery, it cannot break up or sell; the only way out is through. It starts almost 7x levered, needs mid-single-digit growth and $6B of synergies from two gutted companies, and interest is 150% of FCF as rates rise. Generative content and short-form video are existential threats, and any revenue decline makes sports rights unaffordable. Netflix has ~30% odds of a shot at the WB studio in a bankruptcy. … Show more
Netflix's recent M&A and content releases have been abysmal, which outweighs its good retention despite price hikes and a tough macro backdrop. Both sides of the argument still need weighing, but the lean is toward exiting. x.comÂ
FuboTV's valuation looks ridiculous after its merger with Hulu Live TV: about $6.2B in pro-forma revenue, more than 6.2M subscribers with a live sports bundle and positive adjusted EBITDA, yet it trades at roughly 0.05-0.10x sales, the cheapest in its sector. Charts are catching up, with a clean daily breakout above moving averages and a weekly bottoming pattern at generational lows. Next targets are $12, then $15-22. x.comÂ
