The Wheelie Investor
Options Trader, Agentic Trading, Builder of AgenticTG
Nvidia and Micron are better ways to play AI compute than neoclouds like IREN, because the chipmakers earn 70%-plus margins while IREN and its peers pay those high premiums. @JasonL_Capital counters that access to chips is the biggest bottleneck after power, and that IREN moved to the front of the line through a 5 GW DSX partnership and a $3.5 billion deal with Nvidia as a customer. x.com x.comÂ
A rising value of compute per watt should benefit AI cloud, chip, connectivity and power suppliers. Elon Musk says that value will rise over time. Nebius has Microsoft and Meta deals; Marvell benefits from custom silicon demand; Credo connects GPUs; Vistra has long-term nuclear supply deals with Amazon and Meta; Nokia's Nvidia partnership could help it capture data-center networking growth. x.com x.comÂ
AI infrastructure bottlenecks could give eight stocks as much as 18x upside. Nvidia supplies frontier-model GPUs; Broadcom and Marvell supply custom silicon and networking; TSMC makes advanced chips; Micron supplies sold-out HBM; Vertiv provides power and cooling; Palantir monetizes enterprise AI; Alphabet spans TPUs, research, cloud and apps. The list tracks where AI infrastructure spending is flowing. x.com x.comÂ
IREN's $363 million in GPU-backed financing makes it a bet to survive neocloud consolidation. Elon Musk warned that drying debt markets could kill or consolidate many of the 200-plus neoclouds, leaving only a few survivors; IREN secured funding in that very market. x.comÂ
Rapid revenue growth against forward valuations makes Nvidia and Micron additional calculated risks after the selloff, alongside Meta, Broadcom, IREN, Vistra, Nokia and Oracle. Nvidia grew revenue 106% and guides Q3 to $108B, plus or minus 2%, at 17.5x forward earnings; Micron grew revenue 379% to $54.2B, guides $61.5B next quarter and trades at 5x. The other six retain their growth, contracted-demand or customer-order cases. x.comÂ
Nvidia retains pricing power if its full system keeps reducing customers' cost per effective AI task. Strong AI demand alone does not ensure profits across the chain: rising chip, memory and optical costs burden buyers, while tighter financing and slow collections threaten operators. Large customers developing their own chips could pressure Nvidia's margins even as the market grows. x.comÂ
Lenders committing billions to neoclouds weaken the case that expansion will be starved of affordable capital. IREN secured $363M of GPU-backed financing and Nebius a $3.5B credit facility. Longer-lived, redeployable Nvidia GPUs are becoming more acceptable collateral; customer prepayments and cash flow from new contracts offer other funding sources as compute demand outpaces supply. x.comÂ
Semiconductors could stay undersupplied for a long time as more capable AI per dollar creates more uses and drives compute demand. Micron and NVIDIA trade at low forward P/Es because investors fear peak cyclical earnings, yet current earnings show no slowdown. Shortages may worsen as AI adoption spreads, though the industry could remain cyclical; a reversal of the forced rollover trade is hoped for, not assured. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Nvidia's system components can reduce the idle time that erodes returns on expensive AI chips. CPUs, accelerator interconnects and server networking help operators such as Nebius and IREN keep machines doing useful work; solving the next bottleneck could win Nvidia more of the data-center equipment budget even when a rival chip looks appealing alone. Buyers must compare the cost of completed work across the whole system. x.comÂ
Nvidia's AI profits are real, but its compute demand depends heavily on fragile venture funding. Per Chamath, 1% of firms account for 90% of AI spending, and 72 cents of each dollar comes from unprofitable VC-backed firms. Venture money passes through startups to Nvidia and cloud suppliers; if the next raises fail, concentrated orders could contract together. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Nvidia's CUDA retains developers, putting it among 12 stocks that could dominate the decade ahead. Nebius's GPU rental price rise signals demand; Fabrinet and Credo supply AI connectivity. DraftKings has betting scale; Microsoft has Azure and an OpenAI partnership; Figma anchors design work; Shopify powers stores. TeraWulf pivots power sites to AI leases; Constellation, the largest US nuclear operator, signs big-tech power deals; Meta spends on AI; Uber has autonomous-vehicle partnerships. x.com … Show more
