The Wheelie Investor
Options Trader, Agentic Trading, Builder of AgenticTG
Microsoft looks set for continuation after breaking out of a flag, with a gap up to $480 as the best case. Software is catching a bid, the chart has broken into the gap from last earnings, and Microsoft holds an event in Taipei to release an agent-optimized operating system. It already trades around $465 on Hyperliquid, which has been fairly accurate on most names lately. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Azure's accelerating growth and better returns per capex dollar leave further upside on the table for Microsoft, the favored hyperscaler. Azure grew 48% versus 44-45% guidance, its fifth straight beat. The stock is holding eight-week EMA support, with the blue candle still intact. x.comÂ
An unusually large spike in call flow supports Microsoft's bullish $555 target. The 11:00-11:15 ET bucket showed $3.4 million in net calls, almost entirely in September 2027 $600 contracts; the chart projects a rise to $555 before a pullback. x.comÂ
Microsoft looks due for a pullback after rallying from 390 to 491 in about two weeks, as capital rotates out of software into semiconductors. Heavy trimming makes sense here; dealers appear positioned for a mini pullback while semiconductor, AI and photonics stocks such as Nvidia, AMD and Intel bounce. x.com x.comÂ
Anthropic's S-1 and @UncleAlpha007's claim that Microsoft is growing despite a 27% headcount cut have turned the near-term tech-equity view bullish. At least a tradable rally is expected; further upside depends on Iran developments and PCE. Stay nimble. x.com x.comÂ
Microsoft's 50% Azure growth and prospect of positive cash flow in 2027 make the stock look bulletproof. Headcount cuts, lower Anthropic spend, a better Copilot routed to cheaper tokens, and coming proprietary chips and model usage add to the case. It should get Apple's multiple plus recognition for cybersecurity. x.com x.comÂ
The market wants Microsoft to be the first hyperscaler to slow AI capex, and while that would lift its shares in the short term, investors will later realize what it means and panic. Per Goldman, the first hyperscaler to signal slower spending will likely be rewarded, others will follow, and that reflexivity stalls the capex cycle; Nvidia is trying to prevent it. Asked by Michael Hartnett how far hyperscalers must fall before the market trades capex cuts, the answer for Microsoft is 2021 levels. … Show more
Microsoft's salesforce and governed platform unlock AI spending at conservative firms. Faster enterprise than consumer AI adoption makes it effectively the only pure play. M365 Commercial may top 20% growth next quarter, sooner than expected on tonight's guide; GitHub resegmentation helps, but it should do so this year anyway. Azure and M365, two-thirds of revenue, should grow above 50% and 20% and may accelerate. $24-25 CY27 EPS remains achievable, implying under 22x forward earnings. x.com … Show more
Microsoft broke above $433 after two rejections and closed at $445, so it will likely be chased toward its 200-day average near $458, with some continuation likely into Monday on its Taiwan product launch with Nvidia. $487 is the ultimate target, but this is the tail end of the trade, where risk/reward is starting to get capped. x.comÂ
Microsoft is a great business but still an expensive bet at $385, because heavy AI capex is eroding free cash flow. Capex was revised to $190B for the year, $43B above expectations, and free cash flow fell to $15.8B. Revenue grew 18% to $82.9B, operating income 20%, Azure 40% and AI run rate reached $37B, with a 47% operating margin. The average analyst target of $560 implies 45% upside only if the AI spending converts on schedule. x.comÂ
Azure growth guidance and AI monetization are expected to improve, which can extend Microsoft's weekly/monthly breakout through Q4 and beyond. That could take the stock to $650 by year-end. The next pullback will be around the sub-$500s, which is the round to be in. x.comÂ
