The Long Investor
Airline Captain & Investment Analyst, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Robinhood's higher revenue and EPS make it clearly stronger than SoFi on these earnings. SoFi's post-earnings rally is unlikely to hold; its shares are headed for single digits. x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood's Q3 report still looks solid despite misses against tough year-ago peak crypto and equity comps. Revenue missed slightly; the EPS miss looks tied to $67M of unrealized mark-to-market losses primarily related to its RVI fund, explaining the drawdown. Its new banking feature looks frictionless: send cash by text without recipients needing Robinhood accounts, a nice Zelle alternative versus its partner bank. Robinhood is cyclical, unlike compounding SoFi, though both are great. x.com … Show more
Robinhood's growth looks more reliant on wallet share and the market backdrop because customer and active-user growth are weak. Revenue rose 12%, accounts 7% year over year, and net new funded accounts slowed one quarter after acquisition was re-prioritized; adjusted EPS growth unexpectedly turned negative. New customers grew at a mid-single-digit rate and monthly active users fell. MAU is volatile, but needs to improve next quarter. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SoFi's cross-selling is turning growth into faster profits, making its valuation more compelling than Robinhood's despite higher margins there. Q3 revenue rose 44% and adjusted EBITDA 70%; fee-based revenue reached 42% of sales. Management guides to $6.4B revenue and $2.24B adjusted EBITDA in 2027 without needing new capital for that plan, though future dilution is possible. Robinhood's 12.4x analyst-estimated 2027 sales is nearly four times SoFi's 3.3x on management guidance. SoFi must deliver. … Show more
Robinhood's growing non-crypto businesses make its trading-app valuation look too low. Gold subscribers rose 34% to 5.2 million, platform assets reached $396 billion, and 14 business lines now each generate over $100 million annually. Overweight with a $115 target, despite a weak report: deposits fell to $15.7 billion from $22 billion and net interest income dropped 9% as rates declined. x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood's earnings miss leaves its revenue vulnerable to a market correction. Revenue could shrink further if the market corrects; a better entry may emerge over the next six months, but that is not assured. x.comÂ
Robinhood has become a profit-making machine, while Coinbase still has no business model for crypto bear markets. x.comÂ
Robinhood's growing revenue lines make the business more scalable as users and Gold subscriptions expand. Its Q3 slide shows 14 lines at or above $100M in annualized revenue, up from 11 in 2025. Funded customers reached 28.7M (+7% YoY), Gold subscribers 5.2M (+34%) and revenue per user $200 (+5%). The results were not mind-blowing: $1.424B revenue slightly missed estimates, while adjusted EPS of $0.60 beat. Last year's rapid growth is not sustainable. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood's weather betting rules it out as an investment. SoFi is the preferred alternative. x.comÂ
Robinhood is oozing free cash flow despite the less favorable market. At 27x forward free cash flow, it is an undeniable bargain, and the stock is unlikely to get much cheaper. The near-term outlook is not particularly exciting, but risk appetite will return and investors will trade aggressively again; a crypto recovery would light a spark under the business. The $185 target by end-2027 remains. x.comÂ