Nvidia is unbelievably cheap at 14x next year's fully taxed earnings for a multi-trillion-dollar company that is changing how people live day to day and just grew triple digits. x.com
Options selling with Christian
Growth Investor, Options Selling, Creator of Stock Catalysts
Nvidia looks interesting again because rising earnings estimates have not been reflected in its valuation. FY28 EPS estimates rose about 25% in 60 days while shares stayed roughly flat; it trades below 14 times FY28 earnings with a mid-single-digit free-cash-flow yield. Exponential change is hard to grasp, and it is hard to see Nvidia not winning if the US does, though there is little capital to absorb market wobbles. x.com x.com
Nvidia's valuation gives too little credit to its expected long-term earnings growth. Its forward P/E-to-growth ratio is 0.28, the lowest since late 2023; the bullish read depends on those growth expectations proving accurate. x.com x.com
Nvidia's $14 billion purchase of Hugging Face deepens a conglomerate discount that has been building. The business may be getting more insulated, but it is also getting harder to understand, which could add to the stock's lack of a multiple premium. This is a caution rather than an outright bearish call. x.com
Nvidia's rising revenue alongside a much lower P/E is getting hard to ignore. Its chart shows quarterly revenue above $80 billion in Q2 2026 while the P/E is around 30x, down from much higher multiples in prior years. x.com
Nvidia's earnings growth has outpaced its share-price gains, challenging the bubble claim. The attached comparison indexes both to 2020 and shows roughly 70x GAAP earnings versus 36x share price through 2026. x.com
NVIDIA is a capital-cycle cyclical, so its strong near-term guidance only sets up a bigger slowdown later. Its FY28 guide for 70% growth, versus 45% consensus, means a bigger deceleration in FY29. Arguments that NVIDIA deserves a market multiple or more on $400B-plus of FY2028 net income ignore how such cyclicals behave. x.com x.com
Nvidia in 2026 is not Cisco in 2000: it grows over 100% a year at far lower multiples, making it still an amazing buy and likely the first $10T company, possibly by 2028. Cisco peaked near 200x earnings, 30x sales and 176x FCF on 55% growth; Nvidia trades at 30x, 18x and 45x with 75% gross margins. Forward, it is about 20x earnings and 22x FCF, near all-time lows, and supply constraints and contracts let it guide a full year ahead for the first time. A $6T cap would not mean overvalued. x.com … Show more
NVIDIA looks cheap at perhaps 13–14x FY28 EPS based on its own guidance. On its call it guided to about 70% revenue growth in FY28, ending January 2028, versus consensus of only 44.5%. x.com x.com
Nvidia is priced for perfection, so even strong earnings could send it lower; it fell after each of its last four beats, including one of 5.7%. Demand is real, with $1 trillion of orders for 2026–27 against about $253 billion of trailing sales, so slowing growth isn't the worry; the worry is that no result can satisfy a perfect price. At $5.2 trillion it is the S&P 500's biggest piece, and options imply a roughly 5% swing, about $260 billion, on the ~$92 billion of expected sales. x.com
NVIDIA's projected earnings growth could support substantial upside without an enormous multiple. At $221.97 it trades at 10.4x estimated FY2029 earnings; even at $350, nearly 58% higher, it would trade near 16.4x. Estimates imply roughly 130% cumulative EPS growth over the next two fiscal years and may be conservative. SpaceX and Meta earnings look bullish for future chip demand. Slower AI spending, margin pressure or competition could undermine the estimates. x.com x.com