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Chip and memory stocks including Micron, Sandisk, Arm, NVIDIA and Broadcom look set to rally on a possible Chinese reopening to NVIDIA. Per @StockSavvyShay, China is weighing letting domestic firms buy NVIDIA's new RTX Pro 5500, with ByteDance reportedly considering about 1 million chips as local AI demand outruns supply. NVIDIA's AI share in China had fallen from about 95% to nearly zero. x.com
Fireside Alpha
Business, Technology and Investing Interview Digest
AWS CEO Matt Garman on Amazon installing an accelerator chip every 14 seconds: ... “I think we shared recently, we’re installing an accelerator chip, whether a GPU or a Trainium chip, every 14 seconds. It is a massive and rapid scale up. And today, we’re still supply constrained, and we’re scaling really rapidly for customers.” x.com
AlvaSupportsGarman says AWS is installing an accelerator every 14 seconds while remaining supply constrained, directly supporting sustained demand for GPUs, memory and related components.Kunjan Sobhani
Senior Semiconductor Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence
Most of the memory players are allocating their capacity towards the better ASV, better margin, high growth data center market. ... Memory prices in general have just skyrocketed, almost doubled in the 18 months and are expected to grow at least on the low level 50%. ... The end result of all of that is PC makers don't want to build up inventory. They are worried about it and they can't push down these prices to consumers because that also impacts the demand. podcasts.apple.com
AlvaMixedSobhani expects memory prices to rise at least another 50% as suppliers favor data centers, supporting memory-maker pricing while pressuring PC demand and inventory orders.
Sravan Kundojjala
Semiconductor Industry Analyst at SemiAnalysis
Kioxia QSep26 ... - Blended ASP up mid-20s% q/q, while bit shipments up low-teens - CY27 capacity fully sold out; LTAs cover 50%+ of CY28 bit shipments - NAND bit demand growth high-teens in CY26 and low-20s in CY27 x.com
AlvaSupportsContracts covering over half of Kioxia's 2028 shipments and sequential selling-price gains in the mid-20% range strengthen the case for durable NAND demand and pricing.
Reuters
Global News Agency
ChangXin Memory Technologies reported net profit attributable to shareholders of 54.4 billion yuan ($8.17 billion) for the three months ended September 30. ... Revenue for July-September reached 118.71 billion yuan ($16.7 billion), up 613.2% from a year earlier and 19.3% from the previous quarter, the company said. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedCXMT's rapid revenue growth and return to profit demonstrate strong memory demand while strengthening a domestic competitor benefiting from Micron and peers shifting capacity toward HBM.
The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
Kioxia H1 FY27 Results (YoY, JPY): "Sales prices significantly increased, driving the majority of this quarter’s revenue growth" ... — SSD & Storage: +504.1% to 2.79T x.com
AlvaSupportsPrice-led revenue growth and a 504.1% increase in SSD and storage sales strengthen the NAND pricing backdrop for Sandisk and Micron.The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
Q3 revenue & profit expected to reach record highs for the fourth consecutive quarter ... Kioxia's entire CY2027 production capacity is already sold out x.com
AlvaSupportsKioxia's fully sold-out 2027 capacity strengthens the case for sustained NAND supply tightness and pricing support for Sandisk and Micron.
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
The WSJ's Rolfe Winkler reports that ... in the past year, demand by AI hyperscalers has quintupled prices for flash, according to research firm TechInsights. ... Hyperscalers are now buying double Apple's share. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsQuintupled flash prices and hyperscalers overtaking Apple as buyers strengthen the pricing-power case for Sandisk and Micron.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
U.S. officials last year concluded that Chinese citizen Alice Huang, then a top executive at Megaspeed International, was sharing information with the Chinese government while working with Nvidia to build data centers in Asia, people familiar with the matter said. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesThe WSJ's report of an official information-sharing assessment adds a security concern around NVIDIA-linked Asian data centers, increasing the policy obstacles to easing China chip restrictions.
Jim Cramer
Host of CNBC’s Mad Money, Leader of the CNBC Investing Club
A conservative outlook by Samsung caused the stock of competitor Micron to drop today, even as Micron's book of high bandwidth memory is much stronger than Samsung's. podcasts.apple.com
AlvaSupportsCramer argues Micron's HBM order book is much stronger than Samsung's, suggesting the Samsung-driven pullback understates Micron's demand strength.
Chamath Palihapitiya
Founder & CEO of Social Capital, Co-Founder & CEO of 8090
In fiscal 2025, Micron’s revenue was $37.4 billion. In fiscal 2026, it reached $133.2 billion, up 256% ... The makers are using their record cash to expand production capacity. New factories are scheduled to arrive from 2027 to 2029. China’s DRAM champion, CXMT, is expanding too, with its share of global DRAM revenue jumping from 4% to 10% in just a year, according to Counterpoint. x.com
AlvaMixedMicron's 256% revenue growth shows the AI boom's earnings power, while new factories arriving from 2027 to 2029 and CXMT's rising share could restore oversupply and weaken memory pricing.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Much of the pressure on the PC segment is coming from the persistently high price of memory chips, and Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that PC sales are likely to remain weak for the next couple of years. ... Demand for memory, especially DRAM, has exploded with the rise of artificial intelligence agents. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedPersistently high memory prices are suppressing PC demand, while AI agents are driving explosive DRAM demand; the mix supports memory pricing but creates a clear consumer-market offset.Fireside Alpha
Business, Technology and Investing Interview Digest
SanDisk CFO Luis Visoso: “Our NBM pipeline exceeds our supply throughout the end of the decade.” “For context, we expect a strong market in calendar year 2027. Data center is expected to be, again, the engine of growth and represent over 55% of the market, with bit demand growing about 40% year-on-year, enabled by higher AI-driven capital spending. This is after more than doubling in 2026.” x.com
AlvaSupportsSanDisk's pipeline exceeds supply through the decade, while it expects data-center demand to drive more than 55% of the 2027 market and bit demand to grow about 40%, strengthening the NAND demand and pricing case.Fireside Alpha
Business, Technology and Investing Interview Digest
$SNDK CEO: “We’re also balancing customers that are coming back for more. Like that is a real thing. And, you know, in general, we’re hearing from our customers that they have underestimated the amount of NAND they need to run their infrastructure. And so we have multiple customers coming back for a second round x.com
AlvaSupportsSanDisk says multiple customers underestimated their infrastructure NAND needs and have returned for additional orders, providing direct evidence of demand exceeding initial allocations.The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
$SNDK SanDisk CFO: Data center revenue grew 61% QoQ to $4.8B: ... “Data center revenue was $4.8 billion, up 61% sequentially, outpacing estimated market growth for the quarter. Our leading products and strong customer partnerships, including three US hyperscalers, underpinned our continued expansion in this fast-growing end market.” x.com
AlvaSupportsSanDisk's data-center revenue rose 61% sequentially to $4.8 billion, outpacing market growth and showing strong demand from three US hyperscalers.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Data center revenue soared 1,682% from a year ago, to $4.8 billion, above analysts' projections for $3.98 billion, according to FactSet. ... It also sees a structural, AI-driven increase in demand for NAND memory extending beyond fiscal 2030. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedSandisk's data-center revenue beat and expectation of AI-driven NAND demand beyond 2030 support its memory outlook, while weaker consumer and Edge results show uneven demand across the business.Reuters
Global News Agency
Sandisk expects Q2 2027 revenue between $12.2 bln and $12.6 bln ... Sandisk projects Q2 2027 non-GAAP gross margin of 84.5% to 85.5% tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsSandisk's forecast of $12.2 billion to $12.6 billion in revenue and 84.5% to 85.5% gross margin supports continued data-center-driven strength in its memory business.Sam Altman
podcast
For a very long time, if you were a producer of DRAM, you would invest $20 billion of CapEx to make $19 billion... And then all of a sudden, these guys are each going to make like $100 billion of free cash flow in a year... I think they all remember their history. How many times they almost went bankrupt by making too many fabs and being promised this time it was different. media.transistor.fm
AlvaSupportsAltman expects roughly $100 billion in annual free cash flow per DRAM producer and sees past overbuilding as a reason for capacity restraint, supporting memory profits and continued supply tightness.The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
$MSFT: ~$170B CapEx for FY 26/27, "... ... to accelerate in H2 26/27" x.com
AlvaSupportsA roughly $170 billion Microsoft spending plan quantifies the investment supporting demand for GPUs, memory and storage.The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
Samsung Electronics Q3 26 Results (KRW, YoY): ... — Semiconductor operating profit: +1,421% to 106.5T — Memory revenue: +427% to 140.7T x.com
AlvaSupportsMemory revenue growth of 427% and sharply higher semiconductor profit quantify the earnings strength behind the memory-sector rally case.The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
Samsung: "Memory achieved record earnings by significantly ramping up HBM4 sales on the strength of product competitiveness and proactively meeting growing demand for server SSDs" x.com
AlvaSupportsThe HBM4 ramp and growing server SSD demand identify concrete drivers of record memory earnings, strengthening the demand backdrop for Micron and Sandisk.
