Noah
Stock Investor & Trader, US Equities
Nvidia's valuation gives too little credit to its expected long-term earnings growth. Its forward P/E-to-growth ratio is 0.28, the lowest since late 2023; the bullish read depends on those growth expectations proving accurate. x.com x.com
Nvidia's rising revenue alongside a much lower P/E is getting hard to ignore. Its chart shows quarterly revenue above $80 billion in Q2 2026 while the P/E is around 30x, down from much higher multiples in prior years. x.com
Nvidia's trough P/E is a trap rather than a bargain. Responding to @WaterworldCapi1 noting Nvidia at a 10-year-low P/E, a cheap multiple on a cyclical name is exactly when the stock gets hammered. x.com
NVIDIA's projected earnings growth could support substantial upside without an enormous multiple. At $221.97 it trades at 10.4x estimated FY2029 earnings; even at $350, nearly 58% higher, it would trade near 16.4x. Estimates imply roughly 130% cumulative EPS growth over the next two fiscal years and may be conservative. SpaceX and Meta earnings look bullish for future chip demand. Slower AI spending, margin pressure or competition could undermine the estimates. x.com x.com
Nvidia's 0.39 PEG suggests its valuation is low relative to growth. Its 26.56x P/E and 17.55x forward P/E are below their respective ten-year medians of 50.36x and 26.5x. x.com
NVIDIA looks close to the top of an AI bubble, with a two-year megaphone pattern signaling exhaustion of growth. Such expanding, volatile patterns historically don't end painlessly. Its roughly 22x valuation on a $4.8 trillion market cap and $216 billion profit is approaching Cisco's roughly 30x in 2000. Nvidia just raised $25 billion in debt, drawing $85 billion of orders. x.com x.com
Amazon looks cheap against its expected long-term earnings growth if that growth proves accurate. Its five-year consensus growth is the fastest in the Magnificent 7 after Nvidia, while its 0.90 forward P/E-to-growth ratio is the lowest excluding Nvidia. x.com x.com
Nvidia looks interesting again because rising earnings estimates have not been reflected in its valuation. FY28 EPS estimates rose about 25% in 60 days while shares stayed roughly flat; it trades below 14 times FY28 earnings with a mid-single-digit free-cash-flow yield. Exponential change is hard to grasp, and it is hard to see Nvidia not winning if the US does, though there is little capital to absorb market wobbles. x.com x.com
NVIDIA is a capital-cycle cyclical, so its strong near-term guidance only sets up a bigger slowdown later. Its FY28 guide for 70% growth, versus 45% consensus, means a bigger deceleration in FY29. Arguments that NVIDIA deserves a market multiple or more on $400B-plus of FY2028 net income ignore how such cyclicals behave. x.com x.com
Hewlett Packard Enterprise should get dual boosts from ANT and NVIDIA data-center buildouts. It has the lowest PEG and strongest year-over-year growth in the communications space. It is time to buy again, with the low 80s as the target. x.com