Teslaconomics
Long-Term Investor in Tesla, SpaceX & xAI/X
Tesla's FSD approvals can help drive vehicle sales in Europe. Finland has approved FSD (Supervised), called Tesla Assisted Driving there, bringing approvals to 11 of 32 countries. Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK remain outstanding; Finland's regulator expects an EU-wide decision this winter. x.com
Tesla's ability to build cars at scale could make its Robotaxi network dwarf Waymo's in the long run. Waymo still has over twice Tesla's driverless coverage: 1,874 square miles in 15 cities versus 831 in seven. Tesla's 1,928-square-mile total includes 1,097 in the Bay Area with a safety driver. Tesla just launched in Fort Worth and expanded Houston coverage more than tenfold. Coverage is not rides or revenue; each new city requires testing, approvals where required and infrastructure. x.com
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Jason Calacanis
Founder and CEO of LAUNCH, Co-host of the All-In Podcast
[Quoting @18993395: "Video shows a Waymo in San Francisco on I-280 speeding past traffic as the California Highway Patrol performs a traffic break. The Waymo is seen trying to go around the CHP patrol cars, even at one point turning its blinker on."] Waymo might not be ready for highways unsupervised ... High speed + edge case = extremely dangerous x.com
AlvaSupportsCalacanis questions Waymo's readiness for unsupervised highways after the reported I-280 traffic-break incident, challenging the scope of its driverless expansion.
Jon McNeill
Co-Founder and CEO of DVx Ventures, Former President at Tesla, Former COO of Lyft
So the reason that Tesla can build these factories so rapidly, it could because Doug and his team figured out how to eliminate half the factory. ... So we were just the whole team was figuring out how do you optimize and invent to make this a reality where we could 10x a company in 20 or 30 months. youtube.com
AlvaSupportsMcNeill credits eliminating half the factory with rapid factory construction and Tesla's 10x growth in 20–30 months, supporting the manufacturing capability behind its Robotaxi scale case.
Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX
Cybercab will do a majority of all passenger miles in any jurisdiction where it is not prohibited by law. x.com
AlvaSupportsMusk forecasts Cybercab will carry most passenger miles wherever legally permitted, supporting Tesla's long-run scale case while making legal access a condition.Jason Calacanis
Founder and CEO of LAUNCH, Co-host of the All-In Podcast
I think autonomy will be: ... gold medal: Tesla with 40%+ market share ... Silver: uber and their 30 partners taking ~35% ... Bronze: Waymo going solo with ~25% x.com
AlvaMixedThe forecast puts Tesla ahead at 40%+ versus Waymo's roughly 25%, supporting a lead but implying a smaller gap than Tesla dwarfing Waymo.
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
"We have made significant improvements to vehicle behavior around school buses and have received no citations since March 2026," a Waymo spokesman said. NHTSA said its probe involved 2,895 Waymo vehicles equipped with the company's fifth-generation automated-driving system. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedWaymo says it has received no school-bus citations since March 2026, tempering the safety concern behind Tesla's catch-up opportunity, while 2,895 vehicles remain under investigation.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Monday morning, Tesla announced that robo-taxi service would start in San Antonio this week, while adding that the service area was expanding in the original robo-taxi city, Austin, Texas. ... Currently, Tesla robo-taxi coverage is closer to 10% of the U.S. population. And roughly two-thirds of those people live in Texas tradingview.com
AlvaMixedSan Antonio service this week and Austin expansion advance Tesla's rollout, but coverage remains near 10% of the U.S. population, roughly two-thirds of it in Texas.
Reuters
Global News Agency
The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said on Monday it had opened a recall query into 2,895 vehicles operated by Alphabet's self-driving unit Waymo over continued traffic safety violations involving the vehicles' behavior when encountering school buses. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsThe recall query covering 2,895 Waymo vehicles adds regulatory risk to its expansion, supporting Tesla's relative catch-up case.Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX
This is not a case of Cybertruck being unprofitable, as has been misreported by legacy media, but rather that the opportunity cost of the complexity of Cybertruck is vastly outweighed by the value of incremental Cybercab production. x.com
AlvaSupportsMusk argues incremental Cybercab production is worth more than retaining a profitable Cybertruck line, reinforcing Tesla's commitment to reallocating manufacturing resources for Robotaxi scale.Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX
There are efficiency improvements coming that will allow for a 40kWh Cybercab pack. x.com
AlvaSupportsExpected efficiency gains allowing a 40kWh Cybercab pack would reduce battery capacity needed per vehicle, supporting Tesla's ability to build a larger Robotaxi fleet.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Autonomous vehicles on its U.S. network complete 30% more trips per day than those operating outside its platform, according to William Blair. Uber estimates a 30% increase in paid trips would reduce fixed costs per ride by about 23%, potentially improving returns for fleet operators even after paying Uber a share of fares. ... Alphabet's Waymo plans to end its exclusive partnership with Uber in Austin and Atlanta in 2028, allowing customers to book driverless rides through its own app. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesUber's reported 30% trip advantage points to demand aggregation as a scaling edge beyond manufacturing; Waymo's planned direct bookings in Austin and Atlanta in 2028 broaden its routes to riders.Reuters
Global News Agency
Tesla will wind down production of Cybertrucks at its gigafactory in Texas around the middle of next year to accomodate increased Cybercab production, Elon Musk said in a post on X on Friday. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsReallocating Texas factory capacity to Cybercab around mid-2027 supports Tesla's ability to supply a larger Robotaxi fleet.Reuters
Global News Agency
Lyft plans to "significantly grow" its Waymo robotaxi fleet in Nashville by year-end, the company said on Thursday ... Brous also said robotaxis would take "a long time" to scale meaningfully, citing hardware, regulation, operational challenges and a broader backlash against AI over data centers and job losses. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesWaymo's planned Nashville fleet expansion adds competitive scale, while the cited regulatory and operational hurdles challenge the idea that Tesla's manufacturing capacity alone can deliver a much larger network.
Uber Technologies, Inc.
Ride-Hailing and Delivery Platform
When we are talking about the 30% lift, here we are comparing Uber's deployment on a hybrid basis in the US with mature 1P deployments. These mature 1P deployments have the advantage of mix in that they include San Francisco which is a uniquely favorable market for EV deployments today. ... Both for Waymo and Tesla, their trips per vehicle, per day in the new markets that they have launched this year is in the low teens versus high-20s that we are seeing on our network in these hybrid markets.
AlvaChallengesThe reported utilization gap in newly launched markets challenges the link between Tesla's geographic expansion and operating scale: Uber says its hybrid network delivers substantially more trips per vehicle.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Uber Technologies: Expect to Scale Autonomous Deployments Significantly, Deploying More Than 2,000 Fully Driverless Vehicles on Uber by End of 2027, Roughly Half in U.S. and Half Internationally tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesThe planned roughly equal U.S. and international fleet split puts Uber's driverless expansion on two fronts, adding geographic competition to Tesla's bid for a much larger network.
First Squawk
Financial Audio News Service
Uber Q3 2026 Earnings ... Sees About 700 Fully Driverless Vehicles By Year-End ... Sees Over 2,000 Fully Driverless Vehicles In 2027 ... Expects Further Driverless Deployments With Avride In 2027 x.com
AlvaChallengesUber's planned driverless fleet expansion shows another route to network scale through vehicle partnerships, challenging the premise that Tesla's manufacturing advantage will translate into a much larger network.
The Transcript
Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter
Alphabet CEO on Waymo: "We have now driven 300M+ fully autonomous miles. Waymo now operates in 15 major U.S. cities, and just recently opened up service to the public in San Antonio, San Diego, and Tampa with planned expansions into Canada, Germany, Singapore, and Spain" x.com
AlvaChallengesWaymo's operating scale and new public service in three cities strengthen competition for the riders and utilization Tesla needs to earn high lifetime profits per Cybercab.Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX
Tesla ramping up Megapack production rapidly to meet increasing demand x.com
AlvaSupportsTesla's Megapack production ramp supports the prospect of converting strong demand into higher energy deliveries and revenue.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
"During the three months ended September 30, 2026, we recognized IEEPA tariff refunds of $526 million and $260 million as reductions to energy generation and storage cost of revenues and automotive sales cost of revenues, respectively." tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesTesla's filing puts the energy tariff refund at $526 million, quantifying a one-time boost to reported energy margins.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
"We continue to believe these investments will pave the way for TSLA's AI transition, but they will weigh on margins and cash flow for a while," the analysts say. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedTruist expects Tesla's increased AI operating spending to weigh on margins and cash flow for a while, challenging the durability of the recent profitability and cash gains.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Tesla did say its operating expenditure base will keep rising until new products commercialize, the analysts say. They lower their 2026 through 2028 adjusted earnings estimates, citing the higher operating expenditures. tradingview.com
AlvaChallengesStoneX's lowered 2026-28 earnings estimates suggest rising operating costs could keep offsetting Tesla's improving automotive margins.