Daniel
Self-Directed Investor, YouTube Investing Creator
Starship's full reusability would collapse SpaceX's launch costs and make previously uneconomic space industries viable. SpaceX is going to become the world's most valuable company because of Starship. Flight 15 aims to catch both stages for the first time; Elon Musk says a reusable booster could refly hourly, though a reusable orbital heat shield remains exceptionally difficult. In the short term, the stock is headed lower, and that is when it becomes a buy. x.com x.com
SpaceX can capture more upside from AI compute scarcity by selling capacity near spot prices instead of locking in today's rates. Potential Anthropic and Google commitments total about $151B, with 90-day termination rights, while bare-metal pricing has risen from $10-15M to nearly $50M in annual revenue per MW. Elon Musk says contract payback could be as short as six months in 2027. x.com x.com
This signal is no longer available. Showing the latest signals.
Reuters
Global News Agency
But the Starship upper stage's successful return after orbiting Earth 14 times for over 22 hours marked a key engineering milestone ... Though Saturday's Starship recovery is a key milestone in that effort, SpaceX has yet to recover both Starship stages in a single mission. And Starship's heat shield ... is itself not yet fully reusable. tradingview.com
AlvaMixedLimits how much progress toward SpaceX’s launch-cost collapse can be inferred from the successful catch alone.
Fireside Alpha
Business, Technology and Investing Interview Digest
SpaceX’s Mechazilla plucks Ship 42, the first upper stage ever caught by a tower x.com
AlvaSupportsAdvances the upper-stage recovery needed for SpaceX’s full-reuse cost reductions and enables inspection of the returned ship before a future reflight.Fireside Alpha
Business, Technology and Investing Interview Digest
SpaceX relights a Raptor in orbit for Ship 42’s deorbit burn, 21 hours after launch: “Perfect startup. Perfect shutdown.” x.com
AlvaSupportsDemonstrates an engine restart after extended orbital coast, advancing the controlled return needed for Starship recovery and reuse.
Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX
[Replying to @92356429: "I’m just glad we have a tower ready for later today, diversion was clearly the right call."] We have the next booster almost ready for flight, but losing the tower or launch mount would potentially cost us 2 to 3 months x.com
AlvaMixedThe diversion protects launch infrastructure needed for continued testing, while highlighting a bottleneck in SpaceX’s path to rapid reuse.Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX
Slight underperformance of engines on this flight is the reason. ... These early ships and boosters are already outdated by improved designs in production or on the test stand, so this booster loss does not change our timeline to reach high volume, fully reusable Starship flights. x.com
AlvaMixedRaptor V3.2 improvements and earlier engine cutoff are proposed fixes; if effective, they could keep SpaceX’s full-reuse cost reductions on track.Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX
[Replying to @3167257102: "Booster update! Basically the booster “wasn’t where it was supposed to be” so it diverted."] @Erdayastronaut Booster was slightly low on fuel x.com
AlvaChallengesIdentifies fuel margin as a constraint SpaceX must resolve to demonstrate reliable booster recovery and realize full-reuse cost savings.Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX
Starship is currently completing 14 orbits of Earth, before initiating deorbit and attempting to land in Starbase x.com
AlvaSupportsSustained orbital operations advance the mission toward the return test needed to establish Starship’s full reusability.
Space Investor
Space-Sector Investor
Ship 42 reached a ~275 km orbit, the second time a Starship has made orbit, and deployed all 26 Starlink V3 satellites. x.com
AlvaSupportsDemonstrates Starship’s role in expanding Starlink, strengthening a concrete route from launch capability to SpaceX’s commercial value.Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla, Founder & CEO of SpaceX
Future Starship flights will carry over 50 Tb/s of Starlink bandwidth to orbit x.com
AlvaSupportsWould expand Starlink capacity delivered per launch, strengthening the link between Starship’s payload capability and SpaceX’s commercial upside.
Ed Ludlow
Host of Bloomberg Tech, Correspondent at Bloomberg News
they scrubbed the attempt to catch the booster for some technical reason, but there are obviously contingencies in place for a safe splash down in the Gulf. ... [Lauren Gra: "Wow, it just exploded in front of us."] youtube.com
AlvaChallengesRules out Flight 15’s planned dual-stage recovery, postponing that milestone toward Starship’s full-reusability cost reductions.
First Squawk
Financial Audio News Service
Starship lifts off from Texas on 15th flight as SpaceX targets first recovery of both vehicles. x.com
AlvaSupportsBegins the flight test central to SpaceX’s full-reusability thesis and its expected launch-cost reductions.
SemiAnalysis
Independent Semiconductor and AI Research Firm
Our answer: SpaceX built the largest BESS field in the USA for a reason. We count 1,377 Megapacks across Colossus 2, nearly 6GWh. Gas and BESS can be orchestrated to raise baseload while the turbines cycle through charging them, and with a ~1.10–1.15 PUE, the site may still cover a ~300MW shortfall. x.com
AlvaSupportsIf this operating approach works, it could preserve SpaceX’s usable compute capacity after turbine retirements, reducing the revenue risk from the projected power gap.SemiAnalysis
Independent Semiconductor and AI Research Firm
Assuming TVA's grid connection covers ~1.2GW for Macrohard and MiniHard, that leaves ~1.3GW of compute on 1.24GW of nameplate gas once the mobile turbines at Southaven retire by July 2027. Nameplate takes a haircut on derate, and IT MW isn't the full facility load, so the gap could be upwards of 300MW. x.com
AlvaChallengesIf this estimate holds, insufficient power could reduce SpaceX’s usable capacity and delay revenue and payback on installed hardware.SemiAnalysis
Independent Semiconductor and AI Research Firm
While most are fighting for 8–12 month build times, SpaceX has cut them in half. MiniHard finished construction in ~5 months, and the new Gun Range plot just south of the state line will take ~4. ... Colossus 1's first retrofit took 122 days for 150MW, Colossus 2 took 91 days for 210MW x.com
AlvaSupportsFaster construction could let SpaceX capture scarce-compute revenue sooner; the Gun Range schedule remains a forecast.SemiAnalysis
Independent Semiconductor and AI Research Firm
SpaceX's campus on the Memphis/Mississippi line goes from 0.4GW of IT in January to 2.4GW by YE2026 x.com
AlvaSupportsIf delivered, this ramp would expand SpaceX’s capacity available to monetize scarce compute before its larger planned campuses arrive.
Bobby Jain
CEO & CIO of Jain Global, Former Co-Chief Investment Officer at Millennium Management
I'm not saying we're struggling, but it's hard to even get compute power. ... the Anthropics and all that are going to pay more for compute than you can pay in a way, and it's very competitive, and obviously the big providers want to go to their best clients or their biggest clients. youtube.com
AlvaSupportsSupports SpaceX’s ability to seek higher rates as major AI buyers compete with other customers for scarce capacity.
Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
The power used by 330,000 Nvidia GPUs in a data center is roughly 500 megawatts, or half a gigawatt. Anthropic is paying about $3.8 billion per gigawatt per month, for an ARPDC of about $45 billion. Alphabet is paying closer to $5.5 billion per gigawatt per month, for an ARPDC of $65 billion. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsThese estimates support SpaceX’s high revenue-per-MW premise and show that customer mix could materially affect realized returns.
Michael Dell
Founder, Chairman & CEO of Dell Technologies
We started shipping the Nvidia H100 in 2022. ... A year ago it rented for $1.96/hour. Today: $3.10. +58%, on a chip that was supposed to be obsolete by now. x.com
AlvaSupportsStrengthens the case that SpaceX can retain repricing upside even as its installed GPUs age.Dow Jones
Real-Time Financial News Wire
Even so, Amodei said Anthropic tends to err on the low side for how much data-center capacity it will need, arguing it can buy more expensive compute on the open market when in a pinch. tradingview.com
AlvaSupportsSupports a recurring role for SpaceX’s premium short-term capacity when Anthropic’s reserved supply falls short.
Bloomberg
Business and Financial Information and News Platform
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei named sourcing computing power as one of the AI company’s biggest challenges x.com
AlvaSupportsSupports SpaceX’s bargaining power with a major customer, strengthening the case for retaining capacity available for repricing.