The Long Investor
Airline Captain & Investment Analyst, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Metals, especially silver, should be the clear winner if the stock market corrects, since most other havens are unappealing. Americans are unlikely to buy bonds, Chinese assets, emerging markets or slow-moving dividend stocks, leaving money markets, metals and crypto. Gold and silver have a safe-haven record, drew rotation during market weakness over the past 12 months, are being bought heavily by sovereign nations and typically do not move with the market. x.comÂ
Central-bank gold accumulation may be an early warning of inflation, adding to gold's reserve-demand case. Gold's share of non-US central-bank reserves has risen to 24%; the last comparable surge preceded double-digit inflation. Inflation is nowhere near that level today, but central banks buying about 1,000 tonnes a year suggest they do not consider it settled and see debt rising. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Record central-bank buying supports gold. Gold now accounts for over 20% of central-bank reserves, near a multidecade high; notice the trend and adjust accordingly. x.comÂ
Gold faces continued selling pressure as GLD records its biggest weekly outflow since March. November seasonality often favors gold, but gold is still not bullish beyond a bounce. x.com x.comÂ
China's physical buying near $4,000 and a Fed lagging inflation support gold despite rising rates. Per Bloomberg, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 contract traded roughly 430 tons last week, its busiest week since April; buyers pay in full and take delivery. Gold historically does very well when rates rise while the Fed is behind the curve, as it is now. Warsh is no Volcker, and heavy US debt would constrain him even if he were. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Silver's supply shortfall should ultimately help drive its price higher. A commenter cites a projected 46.3 million-ounce deficit in 2026, the sixth consecutive annual shortfall. Supply should remain tight in coming months, though negative trading and fear of further losses are driving investors to sell for now. x.com x.comÂ
Rising oil worsens inflation and puts Fed rate hikes back in focus, making non-yielding gold and silver less attractive. Investors are also selling metals to meet margin calls. An estimated $1.83 trillion in combined value was wiped out over recent sessions; both metals remain under pressure as long as oil keeps rising and rate-hike expectations stay high. x.comÂ
Central-bank buying supports gold despite pressure from the dollar. Technical signals suggest a new bottom may be forming, leaving room for another rally to begin soon. x.comÂ
Gold has years of central-bank demand ahead because China is still far behind in gold reserves. China's reserves are just 9% gold versus 69% for the US. Per the Sound Money Report, China's central bank added 20 tonnes in July, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023 and its 21st straight month of buying, right through gold's worst quarterly slide in over a decade; that is balance-sheet strategy, not dip-buying. x.comÂ
Rising Treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive, setting up one major selloff before the next big rally. Oil above $100 adds inflation and rate pressure; higher yields could lift the dollar, while gold ETF outflows and forced selling in a liquidity crisis add risk. The Benner Cycle flags 2026 as a potential selling period. The long-term bull market is not necessarily over: central banks are still buying and long-term demand remains strong. Gold is not worth chasing at these levels. … Show more
Capital is rotating out of AI capex into areas it starved for two years. Health care, airlines, defense and metals are where the market wants to be for the six weeks to the December 9 Fed meeting; gold and silver are bought on every dip. Risk is still being taken elsewhere: if S&P futures hold 7,700, the rotation carries the index; if they lose it, this was a correction in disguise. x.comÂ