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Teslaconomics

Long-Term Investor in Tesla, SpaceX & xAI/X

21 Oct, 15:24Latest

SpaceX looks extremely cheap because management's new revenue outlook could shrink its lofty sales multiple if ambitions become lasting profits. CFO Bret Johnsen guided $33-37B in Q1 2027 revenue, and roughly $42B of a $63B backlog is expected to be recognized within a year. At a fixed $1.95T enterprise value, today's 61x trailing sales would fall to about 13-15x on annualized Q1 guidance; Elon Musk's $500B-$1T end-2027 ARR outlook implies 2-4x. The targets still need to be delivered. x.com x.com

SPCX

20 Oct, 21:17

SpaceX's Q3 profit turnaround and rapid Super Intelligence growth make this likely the cheapest chance ever to buy its shares. Revenue rose 161% year over year to $14.6B, and net income reached $4.4B versus a loss a year earlier. Super Intelligence revenue hit $7.6B, over half the total, while Starlink consumer subscribers reached 13.6M. x.com x.com

SPCX

Ross Pamphilon

29 Oct, 20:00

podcast

We think when SpaceX first came to the investment-grade credit market, they were issuing bonds, I think, with a yield of around 6%. They now pay 7.5%. podtrac.com

AlvaChallengesSpaceX bond yields have risen from about 6% when it first entered the investment-grade market to 7.5%, increasing the financing cost that projected revenue must cover.

Hedgeye

29 Oct, 19:48

Independent Investment Research and Financial Media Company

Anthropic accounts for over a third of SpaceX's revenue x.com

AlvaMixedAnthropic accounts for over a third of SpaceX's revenue, supporting the scale of the compute business while making the revenue outlook materially dependent on one customer.

Alexander Altmann

29 Oct, 08:00

Global Head of Equities Tactical Strategies at Barclays

Looking at the cumulative revenue of the two most successful tech companies in modern history, it was Microsoft and Apple, and the cumulative revenue of those two was, I think, inflation-adjusted, not even $10 trillion since 1990. But SpaceX's addressable is talking three times that number. So that kind of prompts us, where's all this money going to come from? podtrac.com

AlvaChallengesAltmann questions where the spending implied by SpaceX's enormous addressable market will come from, challenging the demand assumptions behind its revenue-based valuation case.

Walter Bloomberg

28 Oct, 18:10

Financial News Headlines Aggregator, Not Affiliated with Bloomberg

Fitch also highlights the risk that AI infrastructure spending may exceed sustainable demand, potentially triggering a sharp pullback in investment. x.com

AlvaChallengesThe risk of AI infrastructure spending exceeding sustainable demand challenges the utilization and pricing needed to turn SpaceX's expanded compute capacity into lasting profits.

Fireside Alpha

27 Oct, 19:53

Business, Technology and Investing Interview Digest

"And it’s not like everybody is unaware of this. Everybody’s aware of the supply that’s coming on. But even with all of that supply coming on, it is hard for the companies in our portfolio to find compute even well into ‘27. x.com

AlvaSupportsBaker says his portfolio companies still struggle to secure compute into 2027 despite planned supply growth, supporting the pricing and demand needed to sustain SpaceX's revenue outlook.

Fireside Alpha

27 Oct, 19:58

Business, Technology and Investing Interview Digest

“And some of these people, they don’t have the relevant experience. CoreWeave, Crusoe, Nebius, SpaceX, the big hyperscalers, these are companies that can bring on GPUs and energize them and run them.” x.com

AlvaSupportsBaker identifies SpaceX among the few operators able to energize and run large GPU clusters, strengthening the execution case behind management's compute-driven revenue outlook.

Gary Gensler

27 Oct, 22:22

Former SEC Chair, Professor of the Practice at MIT Sloan

And a lot of the funding is funding the chips, the memory chips. And those chips might have four- to seven-year useful lives. ... But there's such a fabulous scaling, such technological advances that the chips of 2026 won't be that valuable in 2032. podtrac.com

AlvaChallengesGensler expects rapid chip obsolescence despite four-to-seven-year useful lives, putting the lasting returns from SpaceX's GPU-financed buildout at risk.

Scott Kirby

27 Oct, 11:45

CEO of United Airlines

Everybody eventually is going to have high-speed, low Earth orbit. It's going to be a must-have. But we are going to have a few years of being the only airline that has it at scale. media.transistor.fm

AlvaMixedKirby expects Starlink to have a few years as the only airline connectivity provider operating at scale, while comparable low-Earth-orbit service eventually becomes widespread and limits the duration of its advantage.

Reuters

27 Oct, 12:00

Global News Agency

Although terms are undisclosed, lenders expect to price the deal at interest rates of 7.75% to 8.3%, Semafor reported. The ICE BofA BBB yield index, which reflects companies with a comparable credit rating to SpaceX, has an effective yield of about 6%. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesSemafor reports expected lease rates of 7.75%-8.3%, above the roughly 6% BBB yield, increasing the financing hurdle for SpaceX's AI expansion.

Jeff Pu

27 Oct, 01:37

Technology Equity Analyst at GF Securities

SpaceX set to be largest VR200 buyer in 2027E (20k racks on 30k+ demand / ~10GW) x.com

AlvaSupportsPu projects SpaceX will buy 20,000 Vera Rubin racks in 2027, roughly 10 GW, providing an independent estimate of the equipment scale needed to pursue management's revenue outlook.

Bloomberg

27 Oct, 00:10

Business and Financial Information and News Platform

Pimco bought a $4 billion slice of a huge SpaceX financing deal that will help expand its artificial intelligence ambitions, according to sources x.com

AlvaSupportsBloomberg reports that Pimco took a $4B slice of SpaceX's financing, adding evidence of investor backing for the capital needed to pursue its AI revenue outlook.

Jim Cramer

26 Oct, 23:15

Host of CNBC’s Mad Money, Leader of the CNBC Investing Club

SpaceX raised $75,000,000,000 with its June IPO. ... There's been a gigantic flood of money coming into the stock market and so much raised the bond market too. ... I think both the debt and the equity markets are running out of money. podcasts.apple.com

AlvaChallengesCramer sees debt and equity markets nearing their capacity after a wave of issuance including SpaceX's $75B IPO, raising the risk that further expansion becomes harder to finance.

Dow Jones

26 Oct, 18:10

Real-Time Financial News Wire

They say it's unclear how SpaceX hits its target for 13 gigawatts of compute by the end of 2027, adding that the target may represent contributions from a new data center campus. ... The analysts say the SpaceX 10-Q implies a large customer is spending $1.68 billion a month, up from Deutsche Bank's initial modeling of $1.25 billion. tradingview.com

AlvaMixedDeutsche Bank infers higher monthly spending by a major compute customer than it modeled, but questions the capacity expansion needed to reach the end-2027 revenue outlook.

The Transcript

26 Oct, 18:00

Weekly Earnings-Call Quotes Newsletter

And we see them renewing at higher dollars per watt, not lower dollars per watt." x.com

AlvaSupportsMusk says SpaceX's short-term compute contracts are renewing at higher prices per watt, supporting revenue durability despite the short contract terms.

Dow Jones

26 Oct, 17:00

Real-Time Financial News Wire

After March 2027, the deal can be cancelled by either side with 90 days notice. tradingview.com

AlvaChallengesAnthropic's $120.5B compute arrangement can be cancelled on 90 days' notice after March 2027, weakening the case that its projected monthly payments underpin durable end-2027 revenue.

First Squawk

26 Oct, 15:23

Financial Audio News Service

AI FEARS ADD A 200-BASIS-POINT PREMIUM TO SPACEX’S DEBT – SEMAFOR x.com

AlvaChallengesSemafor attributes a 200-basis-point premium on SpaceX debt to AI concerns, increasing the financing cost its planned revenue growth must overcome.

Space Investor

26 Oct, 13:17

Space-Sector Investor

Its new S-1 shows Anthropic agreed to buy SpaceXAI compute through 2029. Once all capacity is delivered in December 2026, that works out to about $3.1B a month. x.com

AlvaSupportsThe S-1-based estimate of about $3.1B a month after full capacity delivery puts a meaningful potential Anthropic contribution against SpaceX's $33-37B Q1 revenue guidance.

First Squawk

26 Oct, 13:10

Financial Audio News Service

ANTHROPIC: UNDER SPACEXAI ARRANGEMENTS, AGREED TO SPEND AN AGGREGATE OF UP TO $120.5 BLN OVER TERMS EXTENDING INTO 2029 x.com

AlvaMixedAnthropic's reported agreement provides up to $120.5B of compute demand, but its terms extend into 2029, limiting how much it alone supports the end-2027 ARR target.

zerohedge

26 Oct, 13:13

Financial Blog and News Aggregator

ANTHROPIC TO SPEND UP TO $120.5B ON SPACEXAI NVIDIA COMPUTE x.com

AlvaSupportsAnthropic's reported agreement to spend up to $120.5B on SpaceXAI compute strengthens the contracted-demand case behind management's revenue outlook.

First Squawk

26 Oct, 12:50

Financial Audio News Service

SPACEX PRICES BONDS AT UP TO 8.75% ON $40B CREDIT DEAL: SEMAFOR x.com

AlvaChallengesSemafor reports bond pricing of up to 8.75% on SpaceX's $40B credit deal, raising the financing cost that projected revenue must cover to become lasting profits.

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